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A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries1

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries1 »

Source: A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

Volume/Issue: 2017/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiri Podpiera , Faezeh Raei , and Ara Stepanyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2017

ISBN: 9781475578980

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, Economic growth, Emerging markets, Cross country analysis, Potential output, Potential output; Output gap; Emerging Markets, Output gap, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods-production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariat...

Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Measures of Potential Output

Measures of Potential Output »

Source: Measures of Potential Output : An Application to Israel

Volume/Issue: 1999/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Scacciavillani , and Phillip Swagel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451851892

Keywords: potential output, output gap, wavelets analysis, inflation, aggregate demand, price level, monetary fund, monetary economics

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth...

China’s Growth

China’s Growth »

Source: China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Volume/Issue: 2015/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wojciech Maliszewski , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513504643

Keywords: potential growth, output gap, production, investment, inflation, credit, potential output, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflat...

Lower for Longer

Lower for Longer »

Source: Lower for Longer : Neutral Rates in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , and Jarkko Turunen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513508382

Keywords: Neutral interest rate, output, interest, output gap, interest rates, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach)...

IMF Estimates of Potential Output

IMF Estimates of Potential Output »

Source: IMF Estimates of Potential Output : Theory and Practice

Volume/Issue: 1997/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paula De Masi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1997

ISBN: 9781451974980

Keywords: potential output, output gap, total factor productivity, industrial countries, growth rates, real gdp, growth rate

The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to dev...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Volume/Issue: 2019/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Hayk Avetisyan , Douglas Laxton , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Lusine Torosyan , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 February 2019

ISBN: 9781484398067

Keywords: Business cycles, Unemployment, Potential output, Capacity utilization, Production growth, Macroeconomic Modeling;output gap;NAIRU;hysteresis;potential growth;Volcker

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep r...

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap »

Source: Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap : An Application to Sweden

Volume/Issue: 2000/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847932

Keywords: Business Cycles, Output Gap, Potential Output, Detrending, Production Function, Vector Autoregression, Unobserved Components Models, nairu, equation, time series

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainab...

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States »

Source: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513507569

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Output Gap, output, inflation, unemployment rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The gap between potential and actual output-the output gap-is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S...

The Chilean Output Gap

The Chilean Output Gap »

Source: The Chilean Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2011/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Leandro Medina , and Nicolas Magud

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2011

ISBN: 9781455211807

Keywords: output gap, natural resouces, natural resource, natural resource sector, real gdp, gdp growth,

This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from ov...