Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey »
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Issouf Samaké
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 December 2006
Keywords: Tax smoothing, Sustainability, Historical Decomposition, Primary Surplus, debt ratio, fiscal sustainability, fiscal gap,
This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fi...