How Accurate Are Private Sector Forecasts : Cross-Country Evidence From Consensus Forecasts of Output Growth »
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Prakash Loungani
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 April 2000
Keywords: Forecasting, Recessions, GDP, Consensus, IMF, recession, standard deviation, correlation
This paper evaluates the performance of Consensus Forecasts of GDP growth for industrialized and developing countries from 1989 to 1998. The questions addressed are (1) How do forecast errors differ across industri...