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Mr. Marco Marini, Mr. Robert Dippelsman, and Mr. Michael Stanger
In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
International Monetary Fund

This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that rising unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and lower confidence have all contributed to falling private consumption and low inflation in San Marino. Financial sector balance sheets have continued to compress on the back of steady outflows of deposits. Directors have welcomed the measures taken to contain the 2012 budget deficit but called for a comprehensive medium-term consolidation plan, given growing fiscal risks. Directors have also stressed the need for a deficit-financing plan, which could involve issuing debt instruments on capital markets.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This Selected Issues paper presents scenarios to assess debt dynamics and discusses key considerations in developing a medium-term fiscal strategy and adjustments.in San Marino. San Marino faces new fiscal challenges. Recent interventions in the financial sector are set to increase the debt to gross domestic product (GDP) level, although the eventual level of public debt remains highly uncertain. The government has granted banks the right to convert tax credits to government bonds, thus creating contingent liabilities. Going forward a fiscal strategy is needed. The scenario analysis in this paper suggests that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 55–90 percent of GDP. Such levels would be high for San Marino and well above the level observed in other European microstates. At the same time, government deposits have been decreasing to a low level. A medium-term fiscal strategy could thus aim at containing the debt-to-GDP ratio and rebuilding deposits. The analysis in this paper offered considerations that could be helpful in determining fiscal adjustments needed to reach such targets.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

This Article IV Consultation focuses on San Marino’s prolonged recession. The global crisis has led to a significant decline in budget revenues. However, San Marino’s sizable pre-2008 budget surplus, combined with recent tax measures and efforts to restrain expenditures, have helped contain the deficit at about 3 percent of GDP. Executive Directors noted that San Marino’s economy will face financial and fiscal challenges in the near term, as well as uncertain medium-term prospects. Directors considered that, notwithstanding the recent recapitalization, the largest bank will need more capital to meet prudential requirements.

International Monetary Fund

This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that rising unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and lower confidence have all contributed to falling private consumption and low inflation in San Marino. Financial sector balance sheets have continued to compress on the back of steady outflows of deposits. Directors have welcomed the measures taken to contain the 2012 budget deficit but called for a comprehensive medium-term consolidation plan, given growing fiscal risks. Directors have also stressed the need for a deficit-financing plan, which could involve issuing debt instruments on capital markets.

International Monetary Fund

In this study, the economic development and growth of San Marino are discussed. For liquidity management, the Central Bank of San Marino was commended. Different measures have been taken to enhance the operational autonomy of the Central Bank of San Marino (CBSM), buttress supervisory functions, and strengthen Antimoney Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT). The goals to reduce the fiscal deficit are encouraged, but counseled that the credibility of fiscal plans would be enhanced by a better-articulated strategy. Cuts in public sector employment through attrition and reforms could be the key elements of this strategy.

International Monetary Fund

In this study, the economic development and growth of San Marino are discussed. For liquidity management, the Central Bank of San Marino was commended. Different measures have been taken to enhance the operational autonomy of the Central Bank of San Marino (CBSM), buttress supervisory functions, and strengthen Antimoney Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT). The goals to reduce the fiscal deficit are encouraged, but counseled that the credibility of fiscal plans would be enhanced by a better-articulated strategy. Cuts in public sector employment through attrition and reforms could be the key elements of this strategy.

International Monetary Fund

This 2012 Article IV Consultation highlights that rising unemployment, stagnant wage growth, and lower confidence have all contributed to falling private consumption and low inflation in San Marino. Financial sector balance sheets have continued to compress on the back of steady outflows of deposits. Directors have welcomed the measures taken to contain the 2012 budget deficit but called for a comprehensive medium-term consolidation plan, given growing fiscal risks. Directors have also stressed the need for a deficit-financing plan, which could involve issuing debt instruments on capital markets.