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On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks

On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks »

Source: On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks : The Role of Storage

Volume/Issue: 2012/270

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Deren Unalmis , Ibrahim Unalmis , and Filiz Unsal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475586367

Keywords: oil storage, oil price fluctuations, oil demand, oil supply shocks speculative oil demand, sticky-price DSGE model, inflation, price fluctuations, oil prices, nominal interest rate, oil demand and oil supply shocks speculative oil demand,

Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of...

Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union

Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union »

Source: Deciding to Enter a Monetary Union : TheRole of Trade and Financial Linkages

Volume/Issue: 2012/240

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ruy Lama , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 October 2012

ISBN: 9781475511437

Keywords: Trade Costs, DSGE Model, Monetary Union, intermediate goods, elasticity of substitution, nominal interest rate, Monetary Union., Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

This paper evaluates the role of trade and financial linkages in the decision to enter a monetary union. We estimate a two-country DSGE model for the U.K. economy and the euro area, and use the model to compute the...

Model-Based Globally-Consistent Risk Assessment1

Model-Based Globally-Consistent Risk Assessment1 »

Source: Model-Based Globally-Consistent Risk Assessment

Volume/Issue: 2020/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2020

ISBN: 9781513536460

Keywords: Economic models, Economic policy, Business cycles, Monetary policy, Fiscal policy, DSGE models, predictive density, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, skew

This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2009/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873856

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, world economy, panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, price inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2010/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9781455201358

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, inflation, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structu...

Macroeconomic Responses to Terms-of-Trade Shocks
			: A Framework for Policy Analysis for the Argentine Economy

Macroeconomic Responses to Terms-of-Trade Shocks : A Framework for Policy Analysis for the Argentine Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2009/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pelin Berkmen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872644.001

ISBN: 9781451872644

Keywords: inflationary pressures, nominal interest rates

This paper presents a version of the global integrated monetary fiscal (GIMF) model adapted and calibrated to the Argentine economy. The model replicates the effect of the strong improvement in Argentina's terms of...

Interest Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe
			: The Influence of Monetary Overhangs and Weak Enterprise Discipline

Interest Rate Policy in Central and Eastern Europe : The Influence of Monetary Overhangs and Weak Enterprise Discipline »

Volume/Issue: 1992/68

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Susan Schadler , and Adam Bennett

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 1992

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451848946.001

ISBN: 9781451848946

Keywords: interest rates, nominal interest rates, real interest rates, nominal interest rate

Interest rate policy in the newly reforming Central and Eastern European countries has generally been geared toward establishing positive real interest rates and defending the exchange rate. The principal instrumen...

Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub-Saharan Africa Floaters

Exchange Rate and Foreign Interest Rate Linkages for Sub-Saharan Africa Floaters »

Volume/Issue: 2012/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alun Thomas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505580.001

ISBN: 9781475505580

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, nominal exchange rate, effective exchange rate, nominal effective exchange rate,

The paper considers the determinants of exchange rate movements among sub-Saharan countries that have flexible exchange rate regimes. The determinants are based on the law of one price and interest parity condition...

Optimal Taxation Policies in the EMS
			: A Two-Country Model of Public Finance

Optimal Taxation Policies in the EMS : A Two-Country Model of Public Finance »

Volume/Issue: 1989/40

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 May 1989

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451976977.001

ISBN: 9781451976977

Keywords: inflation, inflation tax, nominal interest rate, inflation rates, nominal interest rates

This paper analyzes, in a public finance context, how the optimal use of the inflation and the consumption tax is affected by incorporating into the model constraints on policy decisions that are likely to develop...

Money Supply and Interest Rate Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework

Money Supply and Interest Rate Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework »

Volume/Issue: 1990/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Guillermo Calvo , and Carlos Végh Gramont

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1990

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451940039.001

ISBN: 9781451940039

Keywords: inflation, nominal interest rate, inflation rate, real money

The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, inclu...