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What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?

What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth? »

Source: What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?

Volume/Issue: 2005/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Subramanian , and Raghuram Rajan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2005

ISBN: 9781451861457

Keywords: Growth, Competitiveness, exchange rate, standard deviation, real exchange rate, exchange rate overvaluation, standard errors, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General,

We examine one of the most important and intriguing puzzles in economics: why it is so hard to find a robust effect of aid on the long-term growth of poor countries, even those with good policies. We look for a pos...

A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises

A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises »

Source: A Perspectiveon Predicting Currency Crises

Volume/Issue: 2010/227

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Robert Flood , Juan Yepez , and Nancy Marion

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2010

ISBN: 9781455208920

Keywords: Speculative attacks, fixed exchange rate, Monte Carlo, probabilities, standard deviation, probability, correlation,

Currency crises are difficult to predict. It could be that we are choosing the wrong variables or using the wrong models or adopting measurement techniques not up to the task. We set up a Monte Carlo experiment des...

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices »

Source: A New Framework to Estimate the Risk-Neutral Probability Density Functions Embedded in Options Prices

Volume/Issue: 2010/181

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Cheng

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202157

Keywords: Implied risk-neutral density functions, market expectations, probability, kurtosis, equation, probability density, standard deviation, Estimation,

Building on the widely-used double-lognormal approach by Bahra (1997), this paper presents a multi-lognormal approach with restrictions to extract risk-neutral probability density functions (RNPs) for various asset...

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets »

Source: How Intensive Is Competition in the Emerging Markets? An Analysis of Corporate Rates of Return from Nine Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 1999/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ajit Singh , Rudolph Matthias , and Jack Glen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 1999

ISBN: 9781451845099

Keywords: Corporate Rates of Return, Intensity of Competition, Emerging Markets, standard deviation, equation, statistic

This large empirical study of corporate profitability in emerging markets during the 1980s and 1990s measures the intensity of competition. Data on corporate rates of return, profit margins, and output-capital rati...

The Impact of Economic Securityon Bank Deposits and Investment1

The Impact of Economic Securityon Bank Deposits and Investment1 »

Source: The Impact of Economic Securityon Bank Deposits and Investment

Volume/Issue: 1998/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michael Fabricius

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1998

ISBN: 9781451852110

Keywords: Economic Security, Institutions, Bank Deposits, institutional variables, correlation, explanatory power, institutional quality, standard deviation

This paper highlights the importance of institutions in explaining the variation of investment rates and of two measures of bank deposits across countries. A general index of economic security is created for 130 co...

Emerging Market Spread Compression

Emerging Market Spread Compression »

Source: Emerging Market Spread Compression : Is it Real or is it Liquidity?

Volume/Issue: 2008/10

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Laura Kodres , Kristian Hartelius , and Kenichiro Kashiwase

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 2008

ISBN: 9781451868722

Keywords: Sovereign Spreads, Fundamentals, bond, bond spreads, market bond, emerging market bond, standard deviation,

Despite recent turmoil, spreads on emerging market countries' sovereign bonds have fallen dramatically since mid-2002. Some have attributed the fall to improved economic fundamentals while others to ample global li...

The Perils of Tax Smoothing

The Perils of Tax Smoothing »

Source: The Perils of Tax Smoothing : Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output

Volume/Issue: 2005/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner , and Kevin Carey

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2005

ISBN: 9781451862263

Keywords: Tax smoothing, sustainability, and forecast error, tax rates, statistics, standard deviation, statistic, forecast error,

If permanent output is uncertain, tax smoothing can be perilous: both debt levels and tax rates are difficult to stabilize and may drift upwards. One practical remedy would be to target the debt. However, our simul...

Measuring the Effect of Foreign Aidon Growth and Poverty Reduction or the Pitfalls of Interaction Variables

Measuring the Effect of Foreign Aidon Growth and Poverty Reduction or the Pitfalls of Interaction Variables »

Source: Measuring the Effect of Foreign Aidon Growth and Poverty Reduction or the Pitfalls of Interaction Variables

Volume/Issue: 2007/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): J. Polak , Joydeep Roy , and Catherine Pattillo

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

ISBN: 9781451867091

Keywords: Foreign aid, interaction variables, growth, poverty reduction, paper, surveys, equation, correlation, standard deviation, And Poverty Reduction,

Regressions in a number of recent papers written by staff members of the World Bank and the IMF rely on an interaction variable (IAV) to establish the effects of foreign aid on economic growth or the reduction of p...

What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions

What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions »

Source: What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions

Volume/Issue: 2004/215

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Arvind Subramanian , and Shanker Satyanath

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2004

ISBN: 9781451875072

Keywords: Macroeconomic instability, political institutions, openness, conflict, inflation, estimation method, statistics, standard deviation, macroeconomic stability, opennes,

We examine the deep determinants of long-run macroeconomic stability in a cross-country framework. We find that conflict, openness, and democratic political institutions have a strong and statistically significant...

Quota Brokers

Quota Brokers »

Source: Quota Brokers

Volume/Issue: 2004/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2004

ISBN: 9781451859065

Keywords: Quota licenses, middlemen, competition, standard deviation, perfect competition, simulation results, Market Structure and Pricing: General,

This paper examines the role of middlemen (brokers) in an imperfect secondary market for quota licenses. Middlemen facilitate trade when markets are thin, as potential buyers and sellers find it difficult to meet a...