Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households highly vulnerable to cashew nut price shocks and climate change risks.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
The economic outlook has deteriorated since the First Review. Real GDP is
expected to contract in 2019, driven by lower-than-expected oil production. Disinflation
is expected to halt, inter alia because of increases in regulated prices. Beyond 2019,
lower oil prices and slower recovery in oil production are expected to weigh on oil
exports and put pressure on the external current account and international reserves.
While the rapid depreciation of the exchange rate has led to a sizable increase in the
debt-to-GDP ratio, the ongoing fiscal retrenchment will help shield public expenditure
from oil-price volatility and reverse the public debt trend.
Brazil is the largest country in Latin America with a varied geography and a population of over 200 million spread across 26 diverse states, generating wide-ranging infrastructure needs. Over the decades, many government investment initiatives have been launched to address these needs, however there remains a significant infrastructure gap in Brazil which continues to hamper growth potential.
Over the past two decades, public investment has been considerably below the regional and income group averages and this has translated into much lower capital stock. Public investment averaged around 2 percent of GDP during the period 1995 to 2015, compared with 6.4 percent for Emerging Market Economies (EME) and 5.5 percent for Latin American Countries (LAC). As a result, public capital stock in 2015 was only 35 percent of GDP compared with an average of 92 for EME and 87 for LAC.
International Monetary Fund. Independent Evaluation Office
The Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) was established by the IMF’s Executive Board in 2001. It provides objective and independent evaluation of issues related to the IMF. The IEO operates independently of IMF management and at arm’s length from the IMF Executive Board. For more information on the IEO’s activities, visit the IEO website: www.ieo-imf.org.
Charlotte J. Lundgren, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Robert C York
Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.
Ms. Doris C Ross, Victor Duarte Lledo, Mr. Alex Segura-Ubiergo, Mr. Yuan Xiao, Ms. Iyabo Masha, Mr. Alun H. Thomas, and Mr. Keiichiro Inui
The countries in the East African Community (EAC) are among the fastest-growing economies in sub-Saharan Africa. This report highlights Mozambique’s remarkably strong growth over the two decades since the end of the civil war in 1992, as well as the major challenges that remain for the country to rise out of poverty and further its economic development.
The fiscal challenges of Brazil’s states and municipalities can have a significant impact on the economy and the provision of core public services. The subnational governments (SNGs) account for a large share of public expenditures, including public investment. As such, their fiscal problems can hamper the economic recovery and the public finances of the federal government. In recent years, many states and municipalities have been struggling with high debt or severe liquidity pressures. Some have already defaulted on part of their debt and are running payment arrears (wages and suppliers). The federal government has already provided a substantial package of financial support through debt service relief.