Yield Spread as a Leading Indicator of Real Economic Activity : An Empirical Exercise on the Indian Economy »
Series: IMF Working Papers
Author(s): Rajan Goyal , and K. Kanagasabapathy
Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Publication Date: 01 May 2002
Keywords: Yield curve, yield spread, leading indicators, working capital, probability, government securities, equation, forecasting, Prices, Business Fluctuations
There is growing evidence that the yield spread could serve as a leading indicator of real economic activity. This paper is an attempt to test this hypothesis for the Indian economy by relating movements in the yie...