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Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections »

Source: Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Volume/Issue: 2018/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484386187

Keywords: forecast evaluation, bias-variance trade-off, machine learning, Forecasting, GDP growth, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimati...

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections »

Volume/Issue: 2018/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484386187.001

ISBN: 9781484386187

Keywords: forecast evaluation, bias-variance trade-off, machine learning, Forecasting, GDP growth, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation

I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF's growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimati...

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India »

Source: Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India : An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Volume/Issue: 2017/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

ISBN: 9781475578690

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Disinflation, India, Inflation targeting, Forecasting models, Monetary policy, Price stabilization, Central banks and their policies, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper d...

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India
			: An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India : An Outline of the Analytical Framework »

Volume/Issue: 2017/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475578690.001

ISBN: 9781475578690

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Disinflation, India, Inflation targeting, Forecasting models, Monetary policy, Price stabilization, Central banks and their policies, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper d...

Quarterly Projection Model for India

Quarterly Projection Model for India »

Source: Quarterly Projection Model for India : Key Elements and Properties

Volume/Issue: 2017/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Pranav Gupta , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Rafael Portillo , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

ISBN: 9781475578706

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Monetary policy, Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate policy, Forecasting models, Inflation targeting, India, Asia and Pacific, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating for...

Quarterly Projection Model for India
			: Key Elements and Properties

Quarterly Projection Model for India : Key Elements and Properties »

Volume/Issue: 2017/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Pranav Gupta , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Rafael Portillo , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475578706.001

ISBN: 9781475578706

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Monetary policy, Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate policy, Forecasting models, Inflation targeting, India, Asia and Pacific, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating for...