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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process »

Source: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through »

Source: Some Implications for Monetary Policy of Uncertain Exchange Rate Pass-Through

Volume/Issue: 2003/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Benjamin Hunt , and Peter Isard

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 March 2003

ISBN: 9781451844283

Keywords: Exchange Rate, Uncertainty, inflation, exchange rate pass, monetary policy rules, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

The paper uses MULTIMOD to examine the implications of uncertain exchange rate pass-through for the conduct of monetary policy. From the policymaker's perspective, uncertainty about exchange rate pass-through impli...

Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF

Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF »

Source: Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF : A Historical Review

Volume/Issue: 1997/48

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): James Boughton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 1997

ISBN: 9781451846706

Keywords: World Economic Outlook, forecasting, econometric models - history, IMF, inflation, monetary fund, monetary policy, aggregate demand, monetary growth

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections a...

Getting to Know GIMF

Getting to Know GIMF »

Source: Getting to Know GIMF : The Simulation Properties of the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model

Volume/Issue: 2013/55

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Derek Anderson , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , Michael Kumhof , Douglas Laxton , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 February 2013

ISBN: 9781475559415

Keywords: business cycle, fiscal multipliers, general equilibrium models, interest rates, macroeconomic interdependence, policy effects, simulation, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research....

Fire Sales and the Financial Accelerator

Fire Sales and the Financial Accelerator »

Source: Fire Sales and the Financial Accelerator

Volume/Issue: 2010/141

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Woon Choi , and David Cook

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9781455201242

Keywords: fire sales, financial accelerator, endogenous recovery rate, financial shock, liquidity spiral, collateral, inflation, monetary policy, inflation targeting, real interest rates

During periods of financial turmoil, increases in risk lead to higher default, foreclosure, and fire sales. This paper introduces a costly liquidation process for foreclosed collateral and endogenous recovery rates...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2009/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

ISBN: 9781451873856

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, world economy, panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, price inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty »

Source: Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Volume/Issue: 2010/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

ISBN: 9781455201358

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, inflation, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structu...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Source: Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model »

Source: Bayesian Dynamic Factor Analysis of a Simple Monetary DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2011/219

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

ISBN: 9781463904210

Keywords: Regular and data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, real output, money demand, money balances, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices

When estimating DSGE models, the number of observable economic variables is usually kept small, and it is conveniently assumed that DSGE model variables are perfectly measured by a single data series. Building upon...