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Mind the Gap

Mind the Gap »

Source: Mind the Gap : What is the Best Measure of Slack in the Euro Area?

Volume/Issue: 2001/203

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Angel Ubide , and Kevin Ross

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2001

ISBN: 9781451874457

Keywords: Output gaps, unobservable components, inflation, forecasting, annual inflation, equation, survey,

Assessing the magnitude of the output gap is critical to achieving an optimal policy mix. Unfortunately, the gap is an unobservable variable, which, in practice, has been estimated in a variety of ways, depending o...

Cross-Country Report on Inflation

Cross-Country Report on Inflation »

Source: Cross-Country Report on Inflation : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2015/184

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513525464

Keywords: inflation, external factors, core inflation, output gap, disinflation

This Selected Issues paper examines the causes and drivers of low inflation in European inflation targeting countries outside the euro area, focusing on the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Switzerland. It estim...

Measures of Potential Output

Measures of Potential Output »

Source: Measures of Potential Output : An Application to Israel

Volume/Issue: 1999/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Scacciavillani , and Phillip Swagel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451851892

Keywords: potential output, output gap, wavelets analysis, inflation, aggregate demand, price level, monetary fund, monetary economics

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth...

China’s Growth

China’s Growth »

Source: China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Volume/Issue: 2015/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wojciech Maliszewski , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513504643

Keywords: potential growth, output gap, production, investment, inflation, credit, potential output, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflat...

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time

Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time »

Source: Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time : How Useful Is a Simple Phillips Curve in Germany, the UK, and the US?

Volume/Issue: 2010/52

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jens Clausen , and Bianca Clausen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2010

ISBN: 9781451963380

Keywords: Real-time data, output gap, Phillips curve, inflation forecast, monetary policy, forecasting inflation, inflation forecasts,

This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an infor...

Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps »

Source: Still Minding the Gap-Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps

Volume/Issue: 2010/189

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andre Meier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2010

ISBN: 9781455202232

Keywords: Output gap, Phillips curve, Recession, inflation rates, inflation dynamics, low inflation, General Outlook and Conditions,

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about signif...

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States »

Source: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513507569

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Output Gap, output, inflation, unemployment rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The gap between potential and actual output-the output gap-is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S...

Philippines

Philippines »

Source: Philippines : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/120

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 April 2008

ISBN: 9781451831429

Keywords: output gap, international monetary fund, capital stock, inflation rate, labor income

This study discusses the Philippine output gap from three perspectives and evaluates the utility of the approaches for policymaking. Incentives in the Philippines appear broadly comparable with those in neighboring...

Philippines: Selected Issues

Philippines: Selected Issues »

Source: Philippines : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/120

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 April 2008

ISBN: 9781451831429

Keywords: output gap, international monetary fund, capital stock, inflation rate, labor income

This study discusses the Philippine output gap from three perspectives and evaluates the utility of the approaches for policymaking. Incentives in the Philippines appear broadly comparable with those in neighboring...

Philippines: Selected Issues

Philippines: Selected Issues »

Source: Philippines : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2008/120

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 April 2008

ISBN: 9781451831429

Keywords: output gap, international monetary fund, capital stock, inflation rate, labor income

This study discusses the Philippine output gap from three perspectives and evaluates the utility of the approaches for policymaking. Incentives in the Philippines appear broadly comparable with those in neighboring...