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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls »

Source: Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Volume/Issue: 2018/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mokhtar Benlamine , Ales Bulir , Meryem Farouki , Ágnes Horváth , Faical Hossaini , Hasnae El Idrissi , Zineb Iraoui , Mihály Kovács , Douglas Laxton , Anass Maaroufi , Katalin Szilágyi , Mohamed Taamouti , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2018

ISBN: 9781484341810

Keywords: Middle East, Monetary policy, Morocco, forecasting and simulation, model construction, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Model Construction and Estimation

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-f...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Volume/Issue: 2017/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , Jiaxiong Yao , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475598384

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by La...

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?*

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?* »

Source: Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Volume/Issue: 2017/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dominic Quint , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475591330

Keywords: United States, Banking, Western Hemisphere, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Optimal Rules, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

The large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect...

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus1

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus1 »

Source: Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Volume/Issue: 2018/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karel Musil , Mikhail Pranovich , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484385616

Keywords: Belarus, Dollarization, Europe, Monetary policy, Quarterly Projection Model, Nominal Wages, Fiscal Impulse, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of...

Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency

Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency »

Source: Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency

Volume/Issue: 2018/25

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Steve Brito , Yan Carriere-Swallow , and Bertrand Gruss

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 January 2018

ISBN: 9781484339718

Keywords: Inflation targeting, Central banks and their policies, central bank transparency, inflation forecasts, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Forecasting and Other Model Applications

We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile...

An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka

An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka »

Source: An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka

Volume/Issue: 2018/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chandranath Amarasekara , Rahul Anand , Kithsiri Ehelepola , Hemantha Ekanayake , Vishuddhi Jayawickrema , Sujeetha Jegajeevan , Csaba Kober , Tharindi Nugawela , Sergey Plotnikov , Adam Remo , Poongothai Venuganan , and Rasika Yatigammana

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 25 June 2018

ISBN: 9781484361511

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Monetary policy, Sri Lanka, Quarterly Projection Model, Forecasting and Policy Analysis System, Flexible Inflation Targeting, General, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lank...

Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions

Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions »

Source: Farms, Fertiliser, and Financial Frictions : Yields from a DSGE Model

Volume/Issue: 2017/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sébastien Walker

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475595772

Keywords: Africa, Monetary policy, financial frictions, foreign capital flows, DSGE models, supply shocks, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper develops a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with a financial accelerator which captures key features of low-income countries (LICs). The predominance of supply shocks in LICs poses dis...

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market »

Source: Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Volume/Issue: 2018/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484353677

Keywords: Japan, Asia and Pacific, Quantitative easing, quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, market liquidity, Japanese government bond, scarcity effects, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Quantitative Policy Modeling

Quantitative easing could improve market liquidity through many channels such as relaxing bank funding constraints, increasing risk appetite, and facilitating trades. However, it can also reduce market liquidity wh...

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1 »

Source: Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Volume/Issue: 2016/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Fan Zhang , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475563153

Keywords: Potential output, Parameter estimation, Central America, Cross country analysis, Dominican Republic, Economic growth, Productivity, Econometric models, Western Hemisphere, macroeconomic modeling

This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital a...