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Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth »

Source: Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

Volume/Issue: 2018/117

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , and Lichen Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 21 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484357170

Keywords: Productivity, Economic growth, Export sophistication, Weak instrument, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls »

Source: Morocco: A Practical Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis in a Country with Capital Controls

Volume/Issue: 2018/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mokhtar Benlamine , Ales Bulir , Meryem Farouki , Ágnes Horváth , Faical Hossaini , Hasnae El Idrissi , Zineb Iraoui , Mihály Kovács , Douglas Laxton , Anass Maaroufi , Katalin Szilágyi , Mohamed Taamouti , and David Vávra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2018

ISBN: 9781484341810

Keywords: Middle East, Monetary policy, Morocco, forecasting and simulation, model construction, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Model Construction and Estimation

The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-f...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Volume/Issue: 2017/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , Jiaxiong Yao , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475598384

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by La...

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus1

Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus1 »

Source: Structural Quarterly Projection Model for Belarus

Volume/Issue: 2018/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karel Musil , Mikhail Pranovich , and Jan Vlcek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484385616

Keywords: Belarus, Dollarization, Europe, Monetary policy, Quarterly Projection Model, Nominal Wages, Fiscal Impulse, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Belarusian authorities contemplate transiting to inflation targeting. The paper suggests a small structural model at the core of the forecasting and policy analysis system. A well-researched canonical structure of...

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India

Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India »

Source: Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India : An Outline of the Analytical Framework

Volume/Issue: 2017/32

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

ISBN: 9781475578690

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Disinflation, India, Inflation targeting, Forecasting models, Monetary policy, Price stabilization, Central banks and their policies, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper d...

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market »

Source: Scarcity Effects of Quantitative Easing on Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Japanese Government Bond Market

Volume/Issue: 2018/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fei Han , and Dulani Seneviratne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484353677

Keywords: Japan, Asia and Pacific, Quantitative easing, quantitative and qualitative monetary easing, market liquidity, Japanese government bond, scarcity effects, Models with Panel Data, Single Equation Models: Single Variables: Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Quantitative Policy Modeling

Quantitative easing could improve market liquidity through many channels such as relaxing bank funding constraints, increasing risk appetite, and facilitating trades. However, it can also reduce market liquidity wh...

State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns—Annexes

State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns—Annexes »

Source: State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns - Annexes

Volume/Issue: 2017/024

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept;International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department;International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.;International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2017

ISBN: 9781498346801

Keywords: Bond issues, Bonds, Economic models, Emerging markets, Financial instruments, Fiscal policy, Investment, Public debt, Public debt management, Sovereign debt

These annexes accompany the IMF Policy Paper State Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns...

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1 »

Source: Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Volume/Issue: 2016/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Fan Zhang , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475563153

Keywords: Potential output, Parameter estimation, Central America, Cross country analysis, Dominican Republic, Economic growth, Productivity, Econometric models, Western Hemisphere, macroeconomic modeling

This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital a...

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?*

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?* »

Source: Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Volume/Issue: 2017/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Dominic Quint , and Pau Rabanal

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 March 2017

ISBN: 9781475591330

Keywords: United States, Banking, Western Hemisphere, Unconventional Monetary Policy, Optimal Rules, Time-Series Models, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

The large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect...