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Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models »

Source: Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

Volume/Issue: 2000/162

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2000

ISBN: 9781451857863

Keywords: inflation forecasting, state-space models, Markov-switching, inflation target, monetary policy, inflation targeting, annual inflation

The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models....

Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa

Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa »

Source: Monetary Policy Transparency and Financial Market Forecasts in South Africa

Volume/Issue: 2007/123

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Vivek Arora

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2007

ISBN: 9781451866872

Keywords: inflation, inflation forecasts, monetary policy transparency, inflation targeting

The transparency of monetary policy in South Africa has increased substantially since the end of the 1990s; but little empirical work has been done to examine the economic benefits of the increased transparency. Th...

Writing Clearly

Writing Clearly »

Source: Writing Clearly : ECB's Monetary Policy Communication

Volume/Issue: 2008/252

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Cihak , Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2008

ISBN: 9781451871104

Keywords: Communication, inflation, central bank, inflation forecasts, inflation target,

The paper presents a methodology for measuring the clarity of central bank communication, illustrating it with the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 1999-2007. The analysis identifies the ECB's written com...

Czech Magic

Czech Magic »

Source: Czech Magic : Implementing Inflation-Forecast Targeting at the CNB

Volume/Issue: 2017/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Tibor Hlédik , Tomás Holub , Douglas Laxton , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475572971

Keywords: Inflation targeting, Czech Republic, Central banks, Monetary policy, Forecasting models, Inflation Targeting, Monetary Policy, Optimal Control

This paper describes the CNB's experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building of a system for providing the economic information that policymakers need to implement IFT. The...

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure1

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure1 »

Source: The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland : Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

Volume/Issue: 2013/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484337172

Keywords: euro zone, trend-cycle VAR, monetary policy, inflation target, price level, inflation targeting regime, General, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imp...

Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs

Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs »

Source: Inflation Targeting in the Context of IMF-Supported Adjustment Programs

Volume/Issue: 2001/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gerd Schwartz , Pau Rabanal , Mario Bléjer , and Alfredo Leone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2001

ISBN: 9781451845020

Keywords: Monetary Policy Rules, inflation, inflation target, central bank, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper argues that the IMF's traditional monetary conditionality-a ceiling on net domestic assets of the central bank and a floor on its net international reserves-should be adapted in IMF-supported adjustment...

Philippines

Philippines »

Source: Philippines : Preparations for Inflation Targeting

Volume/Issue: 2001/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451852271

Keywords: inflation targeting, inflation modeling, inflation, inflation target, central bank, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Targeting,

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and...

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off »

Source: Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Volume/Issue: 2001/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chorng-Huey Wong , Eric Clifton , and Gene Leon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

ISBN: 9781451858105

Keywords: inflation targeting, credibility, Phillips curve, smooth transition regression models, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Inflation Targeting Credibility,

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption...

Shock from Graying

Shock from Graying »

Source: Shock from Graying : Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Volume/Issue: 2013/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2013

ISBN: 9781475598070

Keywords: Demographic shift, life-cycle model, monetary policy, inflation, monetary transmission, central bank, inflation targeting, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less...

Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models »

Volume/Issue: 2000/162

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2000

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857863.001

ISBN: 9781451857863

Keywords: inflation forecasting, state-space models, Markov-switching, inflation target, monetary policy, inflation targeting, annual inflation

The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models....