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Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies »

Source: Comparing the Performance of Logit and Probit Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises in Emerging Market Economies

Volume/Issue: 2014/65

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 April 2014

ISBN: 9781484355282

Keywords: out-of-sample performance, currency crisis, crisis episodes, global financial crisis, General, out-of-sample performance.,

We compare how logit (fixed effects) and probit early warning systems (EWS) predict insample and out-of-sample currency crises in emerging markets (EMs). We look at episodes of currency crises that took place in 29...

Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses

Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses »

Source: Key Issues Note by the IMF Managing Director to the IMFC on the Global Economy and Financial Markets-Outlook and Policy Responses

Volume/Issue: 2009/075

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 September 2009

ISBN: 9781498335386

Keywords: Capital markets, Demand, Economic recovery, Financial crisis, Financial sector, Fiscal policy, Fiscal reforms, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, International Monetary and Financial Committee, Monetary policy

...

The Crisis and Miss Emily’s Perceptions

The Crisis and Miss Emily’s Perceptions »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions draws an analogy between the theme and the characters in Faulkner's short story "A Rose for Emily" and the global financial crisis. In Faulkner's story, all the characters tr...

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1

The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes1 »

Source: The Behavior of Currencies during Risk-off Episodes

Volume/Issue: 2013/8

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reinout De Bock , and Irineu de Carvalho Filho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 January 2013

ISBN: 9781557755308

Keywords: Risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies, exchange rate, currency markets, capital flows, global financial crisis,

Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen,...

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa »

Source: Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Exchange Rates and Policies in Sub-Saharan Africa

Volume: 09

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Stella Kaendera , S. V. S. Dixit , and Nabil Ben Ltaifa

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 December 2009

ISBN: 9781462389889

Keywords: Exchange rate stability, Exchange rates, exchange rate, foreign exchange, global financial crisis, foreign exchange market

This paper studies the evolution of the exchange rates of sub-Saharan African currencies in the context of the global financial crisis. In particular, it analyzes the reasons behind the differences in the magnitude...

CHAPTER 1 Introduction

CHAPTER 1 Introduction »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

In one of his short stories, 1 William Faulkner presents an eccentric maiden lady living in a town in the south of the United States, completely withdrawn from a world that has ch...

CHAPTER 2 Perceptions

CHAPTER 2 Perceptions »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

For several decades now, researchers have shown an interest in studying biases that affect the perception of events by economic and other actors. Without pretending to survey the entire field of literature o...

CHAPTER 3 Academics

CHAPTER 3 Academics »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

Theoretical models used by academics specializing in social sciences and other sciences exhibit at least two features that are rarely found in the real world: they are simple and perfectly consistent. There...

CHAPTER 4 The Private Sector

CHAPTER 4 The Private Sector »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

The world of finance has witnessed the most flagrant abuses, and therefore we will use it to illustrate our argument. It is clear that the private sector has suffered greatly from “denial of reality,” for ex...

CHAPTER 5 The Authorities

CHAPTER 5 The Authorities »

Source: The Crisis and Miss Emily's Perceptions

Series: Departmental Papers / Policy Papers

Author(s): Luc Leruth , and Pierre Nicolas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2010

ISBN: 9781462327331

Keywords: Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, paper, monetary policy, probability, scientists, financial sector

As already noted, the crisis broke out to the obvious surprise of almost everyone, including governments, and the hasty debate over the solution for dealing with the crisis quickly revealed internal tensions...