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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Source: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation1 »

Source: Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process »

Source: Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Volume/Issue: 2011/037

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2011

ISBN: 9781498338868

Keywords: Article IV consultations, Bilateral surveillance, Executive Board, Fund role, Group of Twenty, Multilateral surveillance, Public information notices, Technical Assistance, Economic theory, Economic models

This paper responds to the Board's call for a review of the Fund's role in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) after about a year of implementation. The review covers the period from December 2009 to the April...

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers »

Source: 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2014/048

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2014

ISBN: 9781498342926

Keywords: Bilateral surveillance, Financial risk, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Multilateral surveillance, Spillovers, Surveillance, Asset prices, Assets, Balance sheets

...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484344873.001

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation

Weather Shocks and Output in Low-Income Countries: The Role of Policies and Adaptation »

Volume/Issue: 2019/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Acevedo Mejia , Claudio Baccianti , Mico Mrkaic , Natalija Novta , Evgenia Pugacheva , and Petia Topalova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 August 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513509853.001

ISBN: 9781513509853

Keywords: Economic policy, Economic growth, Economic recovery, Financial crises, Total factor productivity, Climate change, Climate policy, Adaptation to climate change, Weather shock, structural policy

We explore the extent to which macroeconomic policies, structural policies, and institutions can mitigate the negative relationship between temperature shocks and output in countries with warm climates. Empirical e...

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process »

Volume/Issue: 2011/037

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498338868.007

ISBN: 9781498338868

Keywords: Article IV consultations, Bilateral surveillance, Executive Board, Fund role, Group of Twenty, Multilateral surveillance, Public information notices, Technical Assistance, Economic theory, Economic models

This paper responds to the Board's call for a review of the Fund's role in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) after about a year of implementation. The review covers the period from December 2009 to the April...

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers »

Volume/Issue: 2014/048

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498342926.007

ISBN: 9781498342926

Keywords: Bilateral surveillance, Financial risk, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Multilateral surveillance, Spillovers, Surveillance, Asset prices, Assets, Balance sheets

...