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How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Source: How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5 »

Source: Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5

Volume/Issue: 2011/093

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2011

ISBN: 9781498338714

Keywords: China, Cross country analysis, Economic growth, Europe, External sector, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Spillovers, Systemically important financial institutions, Economic models

Spillover reports explore the external effects of policies in five systemic economies based on the issues identified by partners. Without reprising all the results and nuances, this paper draws some overarching les...

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process »

Source: Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Volume/Issue: 2011/037

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2011

ISBN: 9781498338868

Keywords: Article IV consultations, Bilateral surveillance, Executive Board, Fund role, Group of Twenty, Multilateral surveillance, Public information notices, Technical Assistance, Economic theory, Economic models

This paper responds to the Board's call for a review of the Fund's role in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) after about a year of implementation. The review covers the period from December 2009 to the April...

The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid

The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid »

Source: The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid : the Cases of Benin, Niger, and Togo

Volume/Issue: 2008/059

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 September 2008

ISBN: 9781498334112

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, Aid flows, Development assistance, Economic conditions, Exchange rates, Group of eight, Inflation, Millennium Development Goals, Economic reforms, Heavily indebted poor countries

In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identif...

Arab Republic of Egypt

Arab Republic of Egypt »

Source: Arab Republic of Egypt : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2018/15

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 January 2018

ISBN: 9781484338186

Keywords: Economic growth, Private sector, Labor markets, Tax revenues, Revenue mobilization, Monetary policy, Tax policy, Corporate taxes, Tax incentives, Tax administration

Selected Issues...

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers »

Source: 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review - External Study - Risks and Spillovers

Volume/Issue: 2014/048

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 July 2014

ISBN: 9781498342926

Keywords: Bilateral surveillance, Financial risk, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Multilateral surveillance, Spillovers, Surveillance, Asset prices, Assets, Balance sheets

...

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions?

How Well Do Economists Forecast Recessions? »

Volume/Issue: 2018/39

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Zidong An , João Tovar Jalles , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 March 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484344873.001

ISBN: 9781484344873

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic recession, Economic models, Economic growth, Business cycles, Production growth, Financial crises, recession, bias, efficiency

We describe the evolution of forecasts in the run-up to recessions. The GDP forecasts cover 63 countries for the years 1992 to 2014. The main finding is that, while forecasters are generally aware that recession ye...

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5

Consolidated Spillover Report - Implications from the Analysis of the Systemic-5 »

Volume/Issue: 2011/093

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498338714.007

ISBN: 9781498338714

Keywords: China, Cross country analysis, Economic growth, Europe, External sector, Fiscal policy, Monetary policy, Spillovers, Systemically important financial institutions, Economic models

Spillover reports explore the external effects of policies in five systemic economies based on the issues identified by partners. Without reprising all the results and nuances, this paper draws some overarching les...

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process

Review of the Fund's Involvement in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process »

Volume/Issue: 2011/037

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 May 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498338868.007

ISBN: 9781498338868

Keywords: Article IV consultations, Bilateral surveillance, Executive Board, Fund role, Group of Twenty, Multilateral surveillance, Public information notices, Technical Assistance, Economic theory, Economic models

This paper responds to the Board's call for a review of the Fund's role in the G-20 Mutual Assessment Process (MAP) after about a year of implementation. The review covers the period from December 2009 to the April...

The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid
			:  the Cases of Benin, Niger, and Togo

The Macroeconomics of Scaling-up Aid : the Cases of Benin, Niger, and Togo »

Volume/Issue: 2008/059

Series: Policy Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 September 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498334112.007

ISBN: 9781498334112

Keywords: Absorptive capacity, Aid flows, Development assistance, Economic conditions, Exchange rates, Group of eight, Inflation, Millennium Development Goals, Economic reforms, Heavily indebted poor countries

In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identif...