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Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps »

Source: Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps

Volume/Issue: 2007/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Fostel , Sandeep Kapur , and Luis Catão

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

ISBN: 9781451867121

Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Default, Country Spreads, Output Volatility and Persistence, bond, bonds, sovereign bond, bondholders, Sovereign Debt. Default,

We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of "vicious" circles of bor...

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs »

Source: Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs

Volume/Issue: 2009/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

ISBN: 9781451871944

Keywords: sovereign debt and default, IFIs, debt, commercial debt, creditors, interest, private sector creditors,

This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on t...

Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt »

Source: Sudden stops, time inconsistency, and the duration of sovereign debt

Volume/Issue: 2013/174

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Juan Carlos Hatchondo , and Leonardo Martinez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 July 2013

ISBN: 9781475586176

Keywords: time inconsistency, debt maturity, bond, bonds, sovereign default, bond price, International Lending and Debt Problems, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

We study the sovereign debt duration chosen by the government in the context of a standard model of sovereign default. The government balances off increasing the duration of its debt to mitigate rollover risk and l...

Financial Crises  Explanations, Types, and Implications

Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications »

Source: Financial Crises Explanations, Types, and Implications

Volume/Issue: 2013/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stijn Claessens , and Ayhan Kose

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475561005

Keywords: debt crises, defaults, policy implications, financial restructuring, asset booms, crises prediction, International Business Cycles, General, crises prediction.,

This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlig...

International Reserves and Rollover Risk

International Reserves and Rollover Risk »

Source: International Reserves and Rollover Risk

Volume/Issue: 2013/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Javier Bianchi , Juan Carlos Hatchondo , and Leonardo Martinez

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 31 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475571295

Keywords: rollover risk, sovereign default, gross capital flows, reserve accumulation, reserve holdings, bonds, bond, International Lending and Debt Problems, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Two striking facts about international capital flows in emerging economies motivate this paper: (1) Governments hold large amounts of international reserves, for which they obtain a return lower than their borrowin...

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress »

Source: Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress

Volume/Issue: 2016/28

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Martin Bruns , and Tigran Poghosyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 February 2016

ISBN: 9781475594799

Keywords: fiscal distress, extreme bound analysis, debt, currency, inflation, emerging economies, default, Studies of Particular Policy Episodes, General Outlook and Conditions, Forecasting and Simulation

Early warning systems (EWS) are widely used for assessing countries’ vulnerability to fiscal distress. Most EWS employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts...

Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default

Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default »

Source: Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default

Volume/Issue: 2014/168

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gabriel Desgranges , and Celine Rochon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 September 2014

ISBN: 9781498379779

Keywords: Long Term Debt, Maturity Structure, Optimal Default, Sovereign Debt Crisis, Uncertainty, debt portfolio, debt burden, sovereign debt, hedging, financial institutions

We study the relationship between default and the maturity structure of the debt portfolio of a Sovereign, under uncertainty. The Sovereign faces a trade-off between a future costly default and a high current fisca...

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices »

Source: Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2006/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): C. Goodhart , Miguel Segoviano Basurto , and Boris Hofmann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2006

ISBN: 9781451864830

Keywords: Probability of default, macroeconomic shocks, financial surveillance, banking, bank lending, probability, Econometric Modeling: General, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper uses a Merton-type estimate of the probability of default (PoD) for the main banks in a sample of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and middle-income countries as a proxy for the frag...

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps

Persistent Gaps, Volatility Types, and Default Traps »

Volume/Issue: 2007/148

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ana Fostel , Sandeep Kapur , and Luis Catão

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867121.001

ISBN: 9781451867121

Keywords: Sovereign Debt, Default, Country Spreads, Output Volatility and Persistence, bond, bonds, sovereign bond, bondholders, Sovereign Debt. Default,

We show that cross-country differences in the underlying volatility and persistence of macroeconomic shocks help explain two historical regularities in sovereign borrowing: the existence of "vicious" circles of bor...

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs

Sovereign Default, Private Sector Creditors and the IFIs »

Volume/Issue: 2009/46

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emine Boz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451871944.001

ISBN: 9781451871944

Keywords: sovereign debt and default, IFIs, debt, commercial debt, creditors, interest, private sector creditors,

This paper builds a model of a sovereign borrower that has access to credit from private sector creditors and an IFI. Private sector creditors and the IFI offer different debt contracts that are modelled based on t...