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Philippines

Philippines »

Source: Philippines : Preparations for Inflation Targeting

Volume/Issue: 2001/99

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2001

ISBN: 9781451852271

Keywords: inflation targeting, inflation modeling, inflation, inflation target, central bank, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation, Targeting,

The Philippines is planning to shift toward adoption of an inflation targeting framework in 2001. This paper reviews key policy issues in this context, describes various operational and technical preparations, and...

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets

Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets »

Source: Measuring Disinflation Credibility in Emerging Markets : A Bayesian Approach with An Application to Turkey

Volume/Issue: 2004/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alessandro Rebucci , and Marco Rossi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2004

ISBN: 9781451874730

Keywords: Bayesian Learning, Credibility, Mixing Estimation, inflation, monetary policy, inflation process, inflation rate, inflation targeting, Bayesian Analysis, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper presents an empirical measure of disinflation credibility and discusses its evolution in Turkey since the 2001 crisis. The results indicate that credibility has improved markedly over this period, boding...

Shock from Graying

Shock from Graying »

Source: Shock from Graying : Is the Demographic Shift Weakening Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Volume/Issue: 2013/191

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Imam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 September 2013

ISBN: 9781475598070

Keywords: Demographic shift, life-cycle model, monetary policy, inflation, monetary transmission, central bank, inflation targeting, Demographic Trends and Forecasts,

Abstract Empirical evidence is mounting that, in advanced economies, changes in monetary policy have a more benign impact on the economy—given better anchored inflation expectations and inflation being less...

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure1

The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland: Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure1 »

Source: The Role of Domestic and External Shocks in Poland : Results from an Agnostic Estimation Procedure

Volume/Issue: 2013/220

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Roberto Garcia-Saltos , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484337172

Keywords: euro zone, trend-cycle VAR, monetary policy, inflation target, price level, inflation targeting regime, General, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper discusses interlinkages between Poland and the euro zone using a simple and agnostic econometric approach. Specifically, we estimate a trend-cycle VAR model using data for real and nominal variables, imp...

Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics

Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics »

Source: Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics

Volume/Issue: 2011/209

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Man-Keung Tang , and Xiangrong Yu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781463902193

Keywords: Information asymmetry, inflation dynamics, inflation, central bank, monetary economics, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper studies the role of central bank communication of its economic assessment in shaping inflation dynamics. Imperfect information about the central bank's assessment - or the basis for monetary policy decis...

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long? »

Source: Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?

Volume/Issue: 2018/188

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , Li Lin , and Anne-Charlotte Paret

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 August 2018

ISBN: 9781484372562

Keywords: Inflation, Phillips curve, inflation persistence and expectations, General, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global...

Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka

Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka »

Source: Towards Inflation Targeting in Sri Lanka

Volume/Issue: 2011/81

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ding Ding , Rahul Anand , and Shanaka Peiris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455226078

Keywords: Bayesian Estimation, inflation, central bank, foreign exchange, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper develops a practical model-based forecasting and policy analysis system (FPAS) to support a transition to an inflation forecast targeting regime in Sri Lanka. The FPAS model provides a relatively good fo...

Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting

Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting »

Source: Testing the Transparency Benefits of Inflation Targeting : Evidence from Private Sector Forecasts

Volume/Issue: 2006/289

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

ISBN: 9781451865493

Keywords: inflation forecasts, central bank transparency, propensity score matching, central bank, Asymmetric and Private Information,

I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparenc...

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve? »

Source: Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Volume/Issue: 2016/126

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stefan Laseen , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 July 2016

ISBN: 9781498348645

Keywords: Phillips curve, Inflation, Unemployment, Financial Frictions, Conditional Forecast, Regime Switching and Bayesian Estimation.

Inflation dynamics, as well as its interaction with unemployment, have been puzzling since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). In this empirical paper, we use multivariate, possibly time-varying, time-series models...

System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties1

System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties1 »

Source: System Priors : Formulating Priors about DSGE Models' Properties

Volume/Issue: 2013/257

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , and Jaromir Benes

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 December 2013

ISBN: 9781484318379

Keywords: system priors, Bayesian inference, DSGE, smell test, parameters, inflation, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper proposes a novel way of formulating priors for estimating economic models. System priors are priors about the model's features and behavior as a system, such as the sacrifice ratio or the maximum duratio...