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Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño*

Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño* »

Source: Fair Weather or Foul? The Macroeconomic Effects of El Niño

Volume/Issue: 2015/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , Kamiar Mohaddes , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 April 2015

ISBN: 9781475535495

Keywords: El Ni&;amp;#x00F1;o weather shocks, oil and non-fuel commodity prices, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, prices, inflation, variables, gdp, trade, Time-Series Models

This paper employs a dynamic multi-country framework to analyze the international macroeconomic transmission of El Niño weather shocks. This framework comprises 21 country/region-specific models, estimated over the...

To Bet or Not to Bet

To Bet or Not to Bet »

Source: To Bet or Not to Bet : Copper Price Uncertainty and Investment in Chile

Volume/Issue: 2016/218

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Comelli , and Esther Perez Ruiz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475553598

Keywords: Investment, Exchange rates, Chile, Chile, Copper, Commodity prices, Vector autoregression, Options, copper price, exchange rate

A strand of research documents Chile's copper dependence hence significant exposure to terms of trade shocks. Copper prices' sharp decline and forecast uncertainty since the end of the commodity super-cycle has rek...

Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America

Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America »

Source: Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America : Is Brazil Systemic After All?

Volume/Issue: 2012/145

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sebastian Sosa , and Gustavo Adler

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

ISBN: 9781475504088

Keywords: exchange rate, global shocks, commodity prices, real exchange rate, export performance, Intra-Regional Spillovers in South America:, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Trade Linkages,

Shocks stemming from Brazil - the large neighbor in South America - have historically been a source of concern for policy-makers in other countries of the region. This paper studies the importance of Brazil's influ...

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries1

Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries1 »

Source: Fiscal Buffers for Natural Disasters in Pacific Island Countries

Volume/Issue: 2019/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Hidetaka Nishizawa , Scott Roger , and Huan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 12 July 2019

ISBN: 9781498320801

Keywords: Access to foreign markets, Accounting, Accounting standards, Agriculture, Aid flows, Balance of payments, Bank deposits, Bank financing, Banks, Bonds

Pacific island countries (PICs) are vulnerable severe natural disasters, especially cyclones, inflicting large losses on their economies. In the aftermath of disasters, PIC governments face revenue losses and spend...

Commodity Terms of Trade
			: A New Database

Commodity Terms of Trade : A New Database »

Volume/Issue: 2019/21

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bertrand Gruss , and Suhaib Kebhaj

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484393857.001

ISBN: 9781484393857

Keywords: Commodity terms of trade; terms of trade; commodity prices, Commodity terms of trade, terms of trade, commodity prices, General

This paper presents a comprehensive database of country-specific commodity price indices for 182 economies covering the period 1962-2018. For each country, the change in the international price of up to 45 individu...

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices

The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices »

Volume/Issue: 1994/9

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1994

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451927221.001

ISBN: 9781451927221

Keywords: commodity prices, equation, statistics, random walk, forecasting

The “traditional structural approach” to the determination of real commodity prices has relied exclusively on demand factors as the fundamentals that explain the behavior of commodity prices. This fra...

Commodity Prices
			: Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline?

Commodity Prices : Cyclical Weakness or Secular Decline? »

Volume/Issue: 1994/7

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Peter Wickham , and Carmen Reinhart

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 January 1994

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842371.001

ISBN: 9781451842371

Keywords: commodity prices, export earnings, hedging, terms of trade, commodity agreements

Primary commodities still account for the bulk of exports in many developing countries. However, real commodity prices have been declining almost continuously since the early 1980s and there is evidence of renewed...

Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters

Macro-Hedging for Commodity Exporters »

Volume/Issue: 2009/229

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Borensztein , Damiano Sandri , and Olivier Jeanne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873764.001

ISBN: 9781451873764

Keywords: commodity exports, hedging instruments, forward contracts, open interest, commodity prices,

This paper uses a dynamic optimization model to estimate the welfare gains of hedging against commodity price risk for commodity-exporting countries. The introduction of hedging instruments such as futures and opti...

Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation

Commodity Prices As a Leading Indicator of Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 1988/87

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 October 1988

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451953084.001

ISBN: 9781451953084

Keywords: commodity prices, inflation, inflation rate, price inflation, excess demand

Commodity prices may be a leading indicator of inflation, because of the relative importance of flexible auction markets for the determination of these prices. Empirical tests using data for the large industrial co...

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes

Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes »

Volume/Issue: 2012/112

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Issouf Samaké , and Nicola Spatafora

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475503333.001

ISBN: 9781475503333

Keywords: Commodity Booms, export prices, commodity export, commodity exporters, exporters, import prices, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General,

The experience of developing countries over 1990-2010 indicates that commodity prices have a significant impact on fiscal outcomes. Both revenue and expenditure rise in response to commodity (import or export) pric...