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The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan

The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan »

Volume/Issue: 2016/237

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Niklas Westelius , and Yihan Liu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475559712.001

ISBN: 9781475559712

Keywords: Total factor productivity, Population growth, Demographic transition, Inflation, Japan, Asia and Pacific, Aging, and Productivity, Productivity, Demographic Trends and Forecasts

Is Japan's aging and, more recently, declining population hampering growth and reflation efforts? Exploiting demographic and economic variation in prefectural data between 1990 and 2007, we find that aging of the w...

Quarterly Projection Model for India
			: Key Elements and Properties

Quarterly Projection Model for India : Key Elements and Properties »

Volume/Issue: 2017/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jaromir Benes , Kevin Clinton , Asish George , Pranav Gupta , Joice John , Ondra Kamenik , Douglas Laxton , Pratik Mitra , G.V. Nadhanael , Rafael Portillo , Hou Wang , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475578706.001

ISBN: 9781475578706

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Monetary policy, Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate policy, Forecasting models, Inflation targeting, India, Asia and Pacific, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating for...

Understanding India’s Food Inflation

Understanding India’s Food Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2016/2

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , Naresh Kumar , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 January 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513581347.001

ISBN: 9781513581347

Keywords: food inflation, cereal buffer stocks, food, cereals, rice, wheat, food supply, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Over the past decade, India has seen a prolonged period of high inflation, to a large extent driven by persistently-high food inflation. This paper investigates the demand and supply factors behind the contribution...

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

The Information Content of Money in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation »

Volume/Issue: 2008/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Emil Stavrev , and Helge Berger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870244.001

ISBN: 9781451870244

Keywords: Information content of money, inflation forecasting, New Keynesian model, DSGE model, P* model, Two-pillar Phillips curve, VAR model, general dynamic factor model, Bayesian estimation, aggregate demand

This paper contributes to the debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analyzing the information content of money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among...

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the  World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2012/149

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475504187.001

ISBN: 9781475504187

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Fiscal policy analysis, Spillover analysis, World economy, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian econometrics, inflation, domestic demand, terms of trade, price inflation

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2009/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451873856.001

ISBN: 9781451873856

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, world economy, panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, price inflation, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model...

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty
			: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the Group of Twenty : A Panel Unobserved Components Approach »

Volume/Issue: 2010/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201358.001

ISBN: 9781455201358

Keywords: Monetary policy analysis, Panel unobserved components model, Bayesian conditioning on judgment, inflation, monetary conditions, nominal interest rate, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structu...

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models

Data-Rich DSGE and Dynamic Factor Models »

Volume/Issue: 2011/216

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Maxym Kryshko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463903497.001

ISBN: 9781463903497

Keywords: Data-rich DSGE models, dynamic factor models, Bayesian estimation, inflation, monetary policy, real output, monetary base, monetary economics, Bayesian Analysis, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Dynamic factor models and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are widely used for empirical research in macroeconomics. The empirical factor literature argues that the co-movement of large panels o...