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International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities in FSGM

International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities in FSGM »

Source: International Remittances, Migration, and Primary Commodities in FSGM

Volume/Issue: 2017/20

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 January 2017

ISBN: 9781475572957

Keywords: Remittances, Migrations, Labor demand, Commodities, Oil, Commodity markets, Structural vector autoregression, General equilibrium models, International Migration; Remittances; Macroeconomic Interdependence; Oil Price.

This paper adds international migration and remittances into the IMF's Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). FSGM is a global general equilibrium model with endogenous primary commodity markets. A method to esti...

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries

Spillovers to Low-Income Countries »

Source: Spillovers to Low-Income Countries : Importance of Systemic Emerging Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/49

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Era Dabla-Norris , Raphael Espinoza , and Sarwat Jahan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2012

ISBN: 9781463937102

Keywords: Growth Spillovers, Low-Income Countries, Decoupling, Panel Estimate, real gdp, gdp growth, commodity prices, commodity exporters, Economic Growth of Open Economies,

This paper documents the expanding economic linkages between low-income countries (LICs) and a narrow group of "Emerging Market leaders" that have become major players in regional and global trade and financial flo...

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises1

Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises1 »

Source: Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises

Volume/Issue: 2018/153

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Markus Eberhardt , and Andrea Presbitero

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366776

Keywords: Banking crisis, Commodity prices, Banking crisis; Commodity prices; Early warning system; Low-income countries, Early warning system, Low-income countries, International Lending and Debt Problems, International Lending and Debt Problems

We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity p...

Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks

Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks »

Source: Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks

Volume/Issue: 2009/263

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasemin Bal-Gunduz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2009

ISBN: 9781451874082

Keywords: Low-income countries, IMF financing, exogenous shocks, current account balance, current account, terms of trade, commodity prices,

This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables including reserve coverage, current account bal...

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

China's Impacton World Commodity Markets »

Source: China's Impacton World Commodity Markets

Volume/Issue: 2012/115

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Shaun Roache

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2012

ISBN: 9781475503364

Keywords: Oil Price, Business Cycle Fluctuations, industrial production, inventories, inventory, non-oil commodity, Business Fluctuations, And Cycles, energy,

Shocks to aggregate activity in China have a significant and persistent short-run impact on the price of oil and some base metals. In contrast, shocks to apparent commodity-specific consumption (in part reflecting...

Riding the Energy Transition

Riding the Energy Transition »

Source: Riding the Energy Transition : Oil Beyond 2040

Volume/Issue: 2017/120

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Reda Cherif , Fuad Hasanov , and Aditya Pande

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2017

ISBN: 9781484301128

Keywords: oil price, energy transition, electric vehicle, renewable energy, Global Commodity Crises, General, Technological Change: Choices and Consequences

Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like...

Reviving the Competitive Storage Model

Reviving the Competitive Storage Model »

Source: Reviving the Competitive Storage Model : A Holistic Approach to Food Commodity Prices

Volume/Issue: 2011/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Norbert Funke , Weifeng Wu , and Yanliang Miao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2011

ISBN: 9781455228065

Keywords: Food commodity prices, Competitive storage model, Rational expectation equilibrium, real interest rate, price elasticity, kurtosis, skewness, real interest rates, Computational Techniques,

We revive in this paper the empirical relevance of the competitive storage model by taking a holistic approach to food commodity prices. We augment the seminal Deaton and Laroque (1992, 1996) model by incorporating...

The East African Community

The East African Community »

Source: The East African Community : Prospects for Sustained Growth

Volume/Issue: 2012/272

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Catherine McAuliffe , Sweta Saxena , and Masafumi Yabara

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 November 2012

ISBN: 9781475539424

Keywords: Accelerated growth, sustained growth, benchmarking, East African Community, domestic savings, per capita income, commodity prices, commodity exporters, common market, General

The East African Community (EAC) has been among the fastest growing regions in sub-Saharan Africa in the past decade or so. Nonetheless, the recent growth path will not be enough to achieve middle-income status and...

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650

Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 »

Source: Testing the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis since 1650 : Evidence from Panel Techniques that Allow for Multiple Breaks

Volume/Issue: 2013/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rabah Arezki , Kaddour Hadri , Prakash Loungani , and Yao Rao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 15 August 2013

ISBN: 9781484341155

Keywords: Primary, commodities, Unit, root tests, Multiple, Structural breaks, Volatility, commodity markets, price fluctuations, transport costs

In this paper, we re-examine two important aspects of the dynamics of relative primary commodity prices, namely the secular trend and the short run volatility. To do so, we employ 25 series, some of them starting a...

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through

Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through »

Source: Dynamic Fuel Price Pass-Through : Evidence from a New Global Retail Fuel Price Database

Volume/Issue: 2016/254

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kangni Kpodar , and Chadi Abdallah

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475563221

Keywords: Developed countries, Emerging markets, Europe, Gasoline prices, Fuels, Commodity price shocks, Price increases, Oil product prices, North Africa, Oil

This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on av...