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Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

Global Factors in the Term Structure of Interest Rates »

Volume/Issue: 2013/223

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Mirko Abbritti , Salvatore Dell'Erba , Antonio Moreno , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 05 November 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475513516.001

ISBN: 9781475513516

Keywords: Yield Curve, Global Factors, FAVAR, Affine Term Structure Models, Term Premium, inflation, monetary economics, expansionary monetary policy, monetary policies, Time-Series Models

This paper introduces global factors within a FAVAR framework in an empirical affine term structure model. We apply our method to a panel of international yield curves and show that global factors account for more...

Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets

Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets »

Volume/Issue: 2019/85

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yuko Hashimoto , and Signe Krogstrup

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 April 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498311472.001

ISBN: 9781498311472

Keywords: Bank credit, Central banks, Private capital flows, Foreign currency exposure, International financial markets, foreign exposure, global factor, risk aversion, global financial crisis, forward contract

This paper assesses the role of bank and nonbank financial institutions' balance sheet foreign exposures and risk management practices in driving capital flow responses to global risk. Using a unique and previously...

On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets

On International Integration of Emerging Sovereign Bond Markets »

Volume/Issue: 2018/18

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Itai Agur , Melissa Chan , Mangal Goswami , and Sunil Sharma

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484338667.001

ISBN: 9781484338667

Keywords: Emerging markets, International financial markets, Bond markets, Capital flows, Financial Globalization, Safe Assets, Debt Denomination, Factor Analysis, F21, F65

The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in sovereign bond yields and common sources of y...

Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate

Globalization, Market Power, and the Natural Interest Rate »

Volume/Issue: 2019/95

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jean-Marc Natal , and Nicolas Stoffels

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 May 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781498311410.001

ISBN: 9781498311410

Keywords: Real interest rates, Market interest rates, Economic integration, Interest rates, Total factor productivity, low interest rate puzzle, globalization, natural interest rate, markups, real interest rate

We argue that strong globalization forces have been an important determinant of global real interest rates over the last five decades, as they have been key drivers of changes in the natural real interest rate-i.e....

Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward?

Debt Build-up in Frontier Low-Income Developing Countries (LIDCs) since 2012: Global or Country-specific Factors and Way Forward? »

Volume/Issue: 2019/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Constance de Soyres , Anna Rogantini Picco , and Randa Sab

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 February 2019

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484396247.001

ISBN: 9781484396247

Keywords: Domestic debt, Real interest rates, Economic growth, Heavily indebted poor countries, Interest rate increases, Debt build-up;Frontier LIDCs;global and country-specific factors;debt-to-GDP ratio;debt-to-GDP;country-specific;federal fund rate;fund rate

This paper focuses on the debt build-up that frontier low-income developing countries (LIDCs) have faced since 2012. First, it documents a 20-percentage point increase in the external and government debt-to-GDP ra...

Inequality, Leverage and Crises

Inequality, Leverage and Crises »

Volume/Issue: 2010/268

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Romain Ranciere , and Michael Kumhof

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210756.001

ISBN: 9781455210756

Keywords: consumption inequality, distributional conflict, leverage, default risk, global solution methods, probability, calibration, survey, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving

The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of th...

What Explains the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income? An Analysis of State and Industry Level Data

What Explains the Decline of the U.S. Labor Share of Income? An Analysis of State and Industry Level Data »

Volume/Issue: 2017/167

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yasser Abdih , and Stephan Danninger

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 July 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484311004.001

ISBN: 9781484311004

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Routine tasks, offshoring, labor share, unions, import competition, Aggregate Factor Income Distribution, General, Trade Unions: Objectives

The U.S. labor share of income has been on a secular downward trajectory since the beginning of the new millennium. Using data that are disaggregated across both state and industry, we show the decline in the labor...

Financial Integration, Growth, and Volatility

Financial Integration, Growth, and Volatility »

Volume/Issue: 2005/67

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anne Epaulard , and Aude Pommeret

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2005

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451860863.001

ISBN: 9781451860863

Keywords: Risk-sharing, Endogenous Growth, Stochastic Growth, global financial markets, financial markets, foreign assets, General Aggregative Models: Neoclassical, International Factor Movements and International Business: General, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Economic Growth of Open Economies

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the welfare gains from financial integration for developing and emerging market economies. To do so, we build a stochastic endogenous growth model for a small open economy that...

Asia's Stock Markets
			: Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons?

Asia's Stock Markets : Are There Crouching Tigers and Hidden Dragons? »

Volume/Issue: 2014/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Lipinsky , and Li Lian Ong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 February 2014

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484320143.001

ISBN: 9781484320143

Keywords: arbitrage pricing theory, Asian financial crisis, fundamentals, global financial crisis, idiosyncratic factors, integration, IOSCO, securities regulation, stock market, stock pricing

Stock markets play a key role in corporate financing in Asia. However, despite their increasing importance in terms of size and cross-border investment activity, the region's markets are reputed to be more 'idiosyn...

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2011/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , Filiz Unsal , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462314331.001

ISBN: 9781462314331

Keywords: Financial sector, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Asia, Forecasting models, Gross domestic product, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Financial conditions index, VAR, Dynamic Factor Analysis

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting...