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Key Features of Australian Business Cycles

Key Features of Australian Business Cycles »

Volume/Issue: 2001/171

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paul Cashin , and Sam Ouliaris

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858501.001

ISBN: 9781451858501

Keywords: duration dependence, real gdp, growth cycles, business cycle, correlation, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models,

This paper identifies and describes the key features of Australian business cycles during 1959-2000. In particular, we identify the chronologies in Australia's classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the le...

Income and Democracy
			: Lipset's Law Revisited

Income and Democracy : Lipset's Law Revisited »

Volume/Issue: 2012/295

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anke Hoeffler , Robert H. Bates , and Ghada Fayad

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 December 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475596649.001

ISBN: 9781475596649

Keywords: democracy, dynamic panel data, parameter heterogeneity, cross-section dependence, time series, democratization, error correction coefficient, econometrics, political institutions, Models with Panel Data

We revisit Lipset‘s law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relat...

Corporate Indebtedness and Low Productivity Growth of Italian Firms

Corporate Indebtedness and Low Productivity Growth of Italian Firms »

Volume/Issue: 2018/33

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Gareth Anderson , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484343265.001

ISBN: 9781484343265

Keywords: Productivity, Europe, Italy, Corporate debt, dynamic heterogeneous panel threshold models, cross-sectional dependence, Models with Panel Data, Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis, General

Productivity growth in Italy has been persistently anemic and has lagged that of the euro area over the period 1999-2015, while the indebtedness of its corporate sector has increased. Using the ORBIS firm-level dat...

U.S. Monetary Shocks and Global Stock Prices

U.S. Monetary Shocks and Global Stock Prices »

Volume/Issue: 2010/278

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Luc Laeven , and Hui Tong

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455210855.001

ISBN: 9781455210855

Keywords: monetary transmission, financial constraints, asset allocation, financial dependence, stock prices, monetary shocks, stock market, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration,

This paper studies how U.S. monetary policy affects global stock prices. We find that global stock prices respond strongly to changes in U.S. interest rate policy, with stock prices increasing (decreasing) followin...

Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections
			: An Application to Ecuador

Macro-Financial Linkages and Heterogeneous Non-Performing Loans Projections : An Application to Ecuador »

Volume/Issue: 2016/236

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Grigoli , Mario Mansilla , and Martín Saldías

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 December 2016

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475559347.001

ISBN: 9781475559347

Keywords: Ecuador, Credit risk, Banks, Econometric models, Stress testing, Western Hemisphere, Non-performing loans, Interconnectedness, Systemic risk, banks; cross-sectional dependence; heterogeneity; macro-financial linkages; non-performing loans; stress test

We propose a stress testing framework of credit risk, which analyzes macro-financial linkages, generates consistent forecasts of macro-financial variables, and projects NPL on the basis of such forecasts. Economic...

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel

Does Fiscal Policy Affect Interest Rates? Evidence from a Factor-Augmented Panel »

Volume/Issue: 2013/159

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Salvatore Dell'Erba , and Sergio Sola

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 03 July 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484394502.001

ISBN: 9781484394502

Keywords: Real time data, Cross-sectional dependence, Heterogeneous panels, public debt, fiscal stance, budget deficits, fiscal variables, General, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts

This paper reconsiders the effects of fiscal policy on long-term interest rates employing a Factor Augmented Panel (FAP) to control for the presence of common unobservable factors. We construct a real-time dataset...

Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth?

Is There a Debt-threshold Effect on Output Growth? »

Volume/Issue: 2015/197

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexander Chudik , Kamiar Mohaddes , M. Pesaran , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 September 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781513513355.001

ISBN: 9781513513355

Keywords: Panel tests of threshold effects, long-run relationships, estimation and inference, large dynamic heterogeneous panels, cross-section dependence, and inflation, variables, gdp, cd, inflation

This paper studies the long-run impact of public debt expansion on economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. Our contribution is both theoretical and e...

Technology and Finance

Technology and Finance »

Volume/Issue: 2008/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Ilyina , and Roberto Samaniego

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2008

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451870404.001

ISBN: 9781451870404

Keywords: Technology, financial development, external finance dependence, industry growth, R&;amp;#x0026;D intensity, investment lumpiness, r &;amp; d, correlations, r &;amp; d intensity, standard errors

The benefits from financial development are known to vary across industries. However, no systematic effort has been made to determine the technological characteristics that are shared by industries that tend to gro...

A Multi-industry Model of Growth with Financing Constraints

A Multi-industry Model of Growth with Financing Constraints »

Volume/Issue: 2009/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anna Ilyina , and Roberto Samaniego

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2009

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451872668.001

ISBN: 9781451872668

Keywords: Financial development, industry growth, R&;amp;#x0026;D intensity, external finance dependence, convergence dynamics, structural change, r &;amp; d, r &;amp; d intensity, equation, r &;amp; d intensive industries

This paper develops a multi-industry growth model in which firms require external funds to conduct productivity-enhancing R&D. The cost of research is industry-specific. The tightness of financing constraints depen...