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A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia »

Source: A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

Volume/Issue: 2011/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , Filiz Unsal , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

ISBN: 9781462314331

Keywords: Financial sector, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Asia, Forecasting models, Gross domestic product, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Financial conditions index, VAR, Dynamic Factor Analysis

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting...

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage
			: Are there Growth Spillovers?

Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage : Are there Growth Spillovers? »

Volume/Issue: 2011/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Issouf Samaké , and Yongzheng Yang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463924669.001

ISBN: 9781463924669

Keywords: low-income countries, BRICs, Global VAR, Structural VAR, exporters, commodity prices, oil exporters, commodity exporters, oil prices, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models

Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the la...

Inter-sectoral Linkages and Local Content in Extractive Industries and Beyond - The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe

Inter-sectoral Linkages and Local Content in Extractive Industries and Beyond - The Case of São Tomé and Príncipe »

Volume/Issue: 2007/213

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alonso Segura Vasi , Walter Zarate , Gonzalo Pastor , and Ulrich Klueh

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867770.001

ISBN: 9781451867770

Keywords: Local content, Industrial policies, Input-Output tables, oil and gas, oil industry, oil companies, Input-Output Models, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving

This paper attempts to offer specific inputs to the debate on local content promotion in the oil industry, using the specific case of São Tomé and Príncipe as point of reference. Our approach emphasizes inter-secto...

Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms

Econometric Analysis of Discrete Reforms »

Volume/Issue: 2001/156

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alexei Kireyev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451857405.001

ISBN: 9781451857405

Keywords: exogeneity, testing reforms, econometric policy analysis, exchange rate, cointegration, equation, granger causality, exchange rate unification, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Time-Series Models, Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data

The paper suggests an econometric methodology for testing the effectiveness of reforms implemented in one major step, i.e., discrete reforms. The methodology is based on the exogeneity properties of variables in an...

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts

An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts »

Volume/Issue: 2006/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Allan Timmermann

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451863192.001

ISBN: 9781451863192

Keywords: Global economic condition, forecast performance, and evaluation, inflation, statistics, correlation, inflation forecasts, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Prices, Business Fluctuations

The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a key source of forecasts of global economic conditions. It is therefore important to review the performance of these forecasts against both actual outcomes and alternative forec...

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia

A Quantitative Assessment of Financial Conditions in Asia »

Volume/Issue: 2011/170

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carolina Osorio Buitron , Filiz Unsal , and Runchana Pongsaparn

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781462314331.001

ISBN: 9781462314331

Keywords: Financial sector, Economic growth, Economic conditions, Asia, Forecasting models, Gross domestic product, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Financial conditions index, VAR, Dynamic Factor Analysis

We propose a new Financial Condition Index (FCI) for Asian economies based on two different methodologies: a VAR model and a Dynamic Factor Model. The paper shows that this index has predictive power in forecasting...