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Chapitre 3. Où allons-nous? Points de vue sur la production potentielle

Chapitre 3. Où allons-nous? Points de vue sur la production potentielle »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

On démontre, dans le présent chapitre, que la croissance de la production potentielle dans les pays avancés et émergents a ralenti ces dernières années. Dans les pays avancés, ce recul a commenc...

Chapitre 4. L’investissement privé : où est le hic?

Chapitre 4. L’investissement privé : où est le hic? »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

Dans les pays avancés, l’investissement fixe privé s’est fortement contracté durant la crise financière mondiale, et n’a guère repris depuis. De manière générale, il a ralenti plus progressiveme...

Avant-propos

Avant-propos »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

Ce qui me frappe tandis que j’écris cet avant-propos, c’est la complexité des forces qui déterminent l’évolution macroéconomique dans le monde et la difficulté de tirer une conclusion simple. Permettez-moi d...

Résumé analytique

Résumé analytique »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

La croissance mondiale reste modérée, avec des perspectives inégales dans les principaux pays et régions. Elle devrait s’établir à 3,5 % en 2015, ce qui correspond aux prévisions figurant dans l...

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries

A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2017/37

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Jiri Podpiera , Faezeh Raei , and Ara Stepanyan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 February 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475578980.001

ISBN: 9781475578980

Keywords: Central and Eastern Europe, Economic growth, Emerging markets, Cross country analysis, Potential output, Potential output; Output gap; Emerging Markets, Output gap, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods-production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariat...

Panama's Growth Prospects
			: Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives

Panama's Growth Prospects : Determinants and Sectoral Perspectives »

Volume/Issue: 2017/150

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kimberly Beaton , and Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 July 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484307861.001

ISBN: 9781484307861

Keywords: Panama, Infrastructure, Investment, Economic growth, Tourism, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Potential Growth, Growth Determinants, Case Study

This paper estimates medium-term potential growth for a country undergoing significant structural and secular changes. Our forward-looking framework, incorporating three analytical approaches for examining economic...

A New Strategy for Korea's Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment

A New Strategy for Korea's Fiscal Policy in a Low Growth Environment »

Volume/Issue: 2018/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edda Zoli , Hou Wang , and Douglas Laxton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 April 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484352724.001

ISBN: 9781484352724

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Korea, Republic of, aging; long-term fiscal sustainability; structural reforms; potential output, aging, long-term fiscal sustainability, structural reforms, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation

Adverse demographics and other structural weaknesses impinge on Korea's long-term fiscal outlook and potential growth. Moreover, inadequate social protection is creating poverty and dampening consumption. The paper...

A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter

A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter »

Volume/Issue: 2018/275

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francis Vitek

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 December 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484388785.001

ISBN: 9781484388785

Keywords: Closed form; Multivariate linear filter; New Keynesian model; Potential output; Natural rate of unemployment; Natural rate of interest

This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components...

Labor Force Participation in Chile
			: Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects

Labor Force Participation in Chile : Recent Trends, Drivers, and Prospects »

Volume/Issue: 2017/54

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Patrick Blagrave , and Marika Santoro

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 March 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475586213.001

ISBN: 9781475586213

Keywords: Labor force participation, Chile, Women, Potential output, Labor supply, Aging, Labor force partipation, female labor force participation, potential output, Labor Economics Policies

Gains in labor force participation rates in Chile have slowed in recent years. We examine their determinants using a cohort-model analysis. Allowing for both age- and cohort-specific effects in the context of a see...

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484366325.001

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...