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Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process

Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process »

Source: Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process : A Simple Framework and New Facts

Volume/Issue: 2012/296

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Olivier Coibion , and Yuriy Gorodnichenko

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 December 2012

ISBN: 9781475519242

Keywords: Numbers, Information Rigidity, Survey Forecasts, inflation, rational expectations, monetary policy, inflation forecasts, monetary economics, Survey Forecasts., General,

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic signifi...

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle »

Source: The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle

Volume/Issue: 2013/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson , and Emil Stavrev

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2013

ISBN: 9781484334720

Keywords: Phillips Curve, price inflation, inflation dynamics, monetary fund, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation,

Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation...

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia

Regional Economic Outlook, October 2011, Middle East and Central Asia »

Series: Regional Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 October 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781616351298.086

ISBN: 9781616351298

Keywords: Economic recovery, Energy prices, Commodity prices, Economic forecasting, Economic conditions, Spillovers, South Sudan, Regional Economic Outlook, Foreign direct investment, Monetary policy

The Arab Spring holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region. At the same time, the region is witnessing uncertainty and eco...

Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models »

Source: Forecasting Inflation in Chile Using State-Space and Regime-Switching Models

Volume/Issue: 2000/162

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francisco Nadal De Simone

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2000

ISBN: 9781451857863

Keywords: inflation forecasting, state-space models, Markov-switching, inflation target, monetary policy, inflation targeting, annual inflation

The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models....

Measuring a Roller Coaster

Measuring a Roller Coaster »

Source: Measuring a Roller Coaster : Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap

Volume/Issue: 2004/57

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2004

ISBN: 9781451847802

Keywords: output gap, inflation forecasting, unemployment, unemployment rate, forecasting, statistics, rate of unemployment, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods...

Ghostbusting

Ghostbusting »

Source: Ghostbusting : Which Output Gap Measure Really Matters?

Volume/Issue: 2004/146

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andreas Billmeier

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2004

ISBN: 9781451856675

Keywords: Output gap, inflation forecasting, forecasting, statistics, statistic, inflationary pressures, Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper investigates various output gap measures in a simple inflation forecasting framework. Reflecting the cyclical position of an economy, an (unobservable) output gap has important implications for economic...

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis »

Source: Constructing Forecast Confidence Bands During the Financial Crisis

Volume/Issue: 2009/214

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kevin Clinton , Marianne Johnson , Huigang Chen , Ondrej Kamenik , and Douglas Laxton

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2009

ISBN: 9781451873610

Keywords: forecasting and simulation, forecast confidence bands, inflation, equation, confidence interval, confidence intervals,

We derive forecast confidence bands using a Global Projection Model covering the United States, the euro area, and Japan. In the model, the price of oil is a stochastic process, interest rates have a zero floor, an...

Inflation Reports and Models

Inflation Reports and Models »

Source: Inflation Reports and Models : How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?

Volume/Issue: 2014/91

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ales Bulir , Jaromír Hurník , and Katerina Smidkova

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 29 May 2014

ISBN: 9781498387613

Keywords: Kalman filter, monetary policy communication, inflation, central bank, aggregate demand, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation,

We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by...

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach »

Source: Explaining Inflation in Colombia: A Disaggregated Phillips Curve Approach

Volume/Issue: 2018/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau , Adrian Robles , and Frederik Toscani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 May 2018

ISBN: 9781484354827

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Colombia, Inflation Components, Phillips Curve, Forecast, Forecasting and Simulation

We study inflation dynamics in Colombia using a bottom-up Phillips curve approach. This allows us to capture the different drivers of individual inflation components. We find that the Phillips curve is relatively f...

Le FMI pessimiste pour la croissance, inquiet pour l’inflation

Le FMI pessimiste pour la croissance, inquiet pour l’inflation »

Source: FMI Bulletin Vol.37, No.8 Août 2008

Volume/Issue: 37/8

Series: IMF Survey

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 26 August 2008

Language: French

ISBN: 9781451976168

Keywords: inflation, rising inflation, monetary fund, inflationary pressures, monetary policy, inflationary pressure, increase in inflation, inflation concerns, inflation forecasts

Inflation, La crise de subprimes, Assistance technique, Ghana, Lutte contre le blanchiment des capitaux, Les dépenses sociales, États-Unis, La marasme immobilier, Japon, Lipsky, Swaziland, Investissements directs é...