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Financial Cycles

Financial Cycles »

Source: Financial Cycles : What? How? When?

Volume/Issue: 2011/76

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marco Terrones , Ayhan Kose , and Stijn Claessens

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

ISBN: 9781455227037

Keywords: credit cycles, asset busts, crunches, house prices, financial cycles, financial crises, financial markets, equity markets, International Policy Coordination and Transmission,

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equ...

Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking

Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking »

Source: Unforeseen Events Wait Lurking : Estimating Policy Spillovers From U.S. to Foreign Asset Prices

Volume/Issue: 2011/183

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tamim Bayoumi , and Trung Bui

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2011

ISBN: 9781462309290

Keywords: Event studies, policy announcements, interntational asset price transmission, bond yields, bond, foreign bond, equity prices, commodity prices, International Policy Coordination and Transmission, Corporate Finance and Governance: Government Policy and Regulation,

Event studies are used to analyze the impact of U.S. financial, fiscal, and monetary policies from US to foreign asset prices across a range of G20 countries and Switzerland. The initial announcement that the Admin...

Whose Inflation? A Characterization of the CPI Plutocratic Bias

Whose Inflation? A Characterization of the CPI Plutocratic Bias »

Source: Whose Inflation? A Characterization of the CPI Plutocratic Bias

Volume/Issue: 2001/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Eduardo Ley

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2001

ISBN: 9781451847949

Keywords: consumer price index, plutocratic index, democratic index, group index, aggregation, equivalence scales, expenditure, equation, expenditures, survey

Prais (1958) showed that the CPI computed by statistical agencies can be interpreted as a weighed average of household price indexes, the weight of each household determined by its total expenditures. We decompose...

Identifying Speculative Bubbles

Identifying Speculative Bubbles »

Source: Identifying Speculative Bubbles : A Two-Pillar Surveillance Framework

Volume/Issue: 2014/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Bradley Jones

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 November 2014

ISBN: 9781498332071

Keywords: Market efficiency, Financial crises, equity, issuance, market, stock, markets, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Asset Pricing, Government Policy and Regulation

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the issue of how best to identify speculative asset bubbles (in real-time) remains in flux. This owes to the difficulty of disentangling irrational investor exuberan...

Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices

Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices »

Source: Winner-Loser Reversals in National Stock Market Indices : Can they Be Explained?

Volume/Issue: 1997/182

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Anthony Richards

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1997

ISBN: 9781451859232

Keywords: International equity pricing, winner&;amp;#x2013;loser reversals, contrarian strategies, stock market, stock market indices, constant term, predictability, stock markets

This paper examines possible explanations for “winner–loser reversals” in the national stock market indices of 16 countries. There is no evidence that loser countries are riskier than winner co...

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries1

Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries1 »

Source: Rethinking Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries

Volume/Issue: 2019/108

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Tokhir Mirzoev , and Ling Zhu

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 May 2019

ISBN: 9781498314749

Keywords: Consumption, Public investments, Poverty, Capital, Real interest rates, Fiscal policy, oil exporters, permanent income hypothesis, fiscal rules, PIH

We examine the existing fiscal policy paradigm in commodity-exporting countries. First, we argue that its centerpiece-the permanent income hypothesis (PIH)-is not consistent with either intergenerational equity or...

Financial Sector Debt Bias1

Financial Sector Debt Bias1 »

Source: Financial Sector Debt Bias

Volume/Issue: 2016/217

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Oana Luca , and Alexander Tieman

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 10 November 2016

ISBN: 9781475552805

Keywords: Banks, Financial stability, Financial sector, Tax bias, Debt bias, Leverage, Non-Banks, Oil prices, equity prices, dividends

Most tax systems create a tax bias toward debt finance. Such debt bias increases leverage and may negatively affect financial stability. This paper models and estimates debt bias in the financial sector, and presen...

Chapter 1. Three Scenarios for Financial Stability

Chapter 1. Three Scenarios for Financial Stability »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015 : Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513582047

Keywords: Liquidity, global financial crisis, securities markets, corporate debt, commodity prices, corporate bonds, regulations, equity bubble, normalization, risk premiums

Financial Stability Overview During the past six months financial stability has improved in advanced economies, but risks continue to rotate toward emerging markets a...

Chapter 2. Market Liquidity—Resilient or Fleeting?

Chapter 2. Market Liquidity—Resilient or Fleeting? »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015 : Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513582047

Keywords: Liquidity, global financial crisis, securities markets, corporate debt, commodity prices, corporate bonds, regulations, equity bubble, normalization, risk premiums

Summary Market participants in advanced and emerging market economies have become worried that both the level of market liquidity and its resilience may be declining, especially for...

Chapter 3. Corporate Leverage in Emerging Markets—a Concern?

Chapter 3. Corporate Leverage in Emerging Markets—a Concern? »

Source: Global Financial Stability Report, October 2015 : Vulnerabilities, Legacies, and Policy Challenges - Risks Rotating to Emerging Markets

Series: Global Financial Stability Report

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 07 October 2015

ISBN: 9781513582047

Keywords: Liquidity, global financial crisis, securities markets, corporate debt, commodity prices, corporate bonds, regulations, equity bubble, normalization, risk premiums

Summary The corporate debt of nonfinancial firms across major emerging market economies quadrupled between 2004 and 2014. At the same time, the composition of that corporate debt has...