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United Kingdom: Selected Issues

United Kingdom: Selected Issues »

Source: United Kingdom : Selected Issues Paper

Volume/Issue: 2010/337

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 09 November 2010

ISBN: 9781455208449

Keywords: output gap, tfp, capital stock, production function, growth accounting

This paper estimates the extent of spare capacity in the U.K. economy using a range of methodologies pointing to an output gap and the behavior of inflation during large output gaps. The usefulness of fiscal rules...

Cross-Country Report on Inflation

Cross-Country Report on Inflation »

Source: Cross-Country Report on Inflation : Selected Issues

Volume/Issue: 2015/184

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 14 July 2015

ISBN: 9781513525464

Keywords: inflation, external factors, core inflation, output gap, disinflation

This Selected Issues paper examines the causes and drivers of low inflation in European inflation targeting countries outside the euro area, focusing on the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, and Switzerland. It estim...

Measures of Potential Output

Measures of Potential Output »

Source: Measures of Potential Output : An Application to Israel

Volume/Issue: 1999/96

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabio Scacciavillani , and Phillip Swagel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 1999

ISBN: 9781451851892

Keywords: potential output, output gap, wavelets analysis, inflation, aggregate demand, price level, monetary fund, monetary economics

This paper estimates measures of potential output for Israel, with the aim of providing evidence on whether the recent growth slowdown is principally a cyclical slowdown or a structural shift toward a slower growth...

IMF Estimates of Potential Output

IMF Estimates of Potential Output »

Source: IMF Estimates of Potential Output : Theory and Practice

Volume/Issue: 1997/177

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Paula De Masi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 1997

ISBN: 9781451974980

Keywords: potential output, output gap, total factor productivity, industrial countries, growth rates, real gdp, growth rate

The concepts of potential output and the output gap are central to the IMF’s analytical work in providing policy recommendations to member governments. This key role has stimulated research at the IMF to dev...

China’s Growth

China’s Growth »

Source: China's Growth : Can Goldilocks Outgrow Bears?

Volume/Issue: 2015/113

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Wojciech Maliszewski , and Longmei Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 May 2015

ISBN: 9781513504643

Keywords: potential growth, output gap, production, investment, inflation, credit, potential output, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development,

The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflat...

Lower for Longer

Lower for Longer »

Source: Lower for Longer : Neutral Rates in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/135

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Andrea Pescatori , and Jarkko Turunen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513508382

Keywords: Neutral interest rate, output, interest, output gap, interest rates, General, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

We use a semi structural model to estimate neutral rates in the United States. Our Bayesian estimation incorporates prior information on the output gap and potential output (based on a production function approach)...

Bulgaria
			: Selected Issues

Bulgaria : Selected Issues »

Volume/Issue: 2010/159

Series: IMF Staff Country Reports

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 02 June 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455207466.002

ISBN: 9781455207466

Keywords: capital stock, output gaps, output gap

Bulgaria's potential output growth in future could be markedly lower, and it may take considerable time for the excess labor and resources to be absorbed by other sectors, in particular by the export sector. This s...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis

Volume/Issue: 2019/35

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Hayk Avetisyan , Douglas Laxton , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Lusine Torosyan , and Hou Wang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 19 February 2019

ISBN: 9781484398067

Keywords: Business cycles, Unemployment, Potential output, Capacity utilization, Production growth, Macroeconomic Modeling;output gap;NAIRU;hysteresis;potential growth;Volcker

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep r...

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap

Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap »

Source: Alternative Methods of Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap : An Application to Sweden

Volume/Issue: 2000/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sweta Saxena , and Valerie Cerra

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 March 2000

ISBN: 9781451847932

Keywords: Business Cycles, Output Gap, Potential Output, Detrending, Production Function, Vector Autoregression, Unobserved Components Models, nairu, equation, time series

This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainab...

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States »

Source: A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

Volume/Issue: 2015/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 June 2015

ISBN: 9781513507569

Keywords: Macroeconomic Modeling, Output Gap, output, inflation, unemployment rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects),

The gap between potential and actual output-the output gap-is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S...