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Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform1

Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform1 »

Source: Italy: Toward a Growth-Friendly Fiscal Reform

Volume/Issue: 2018/59

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Shafik Hebous , Alvar Kangur , and Mehdi Raissi

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 March 2018

ISBN: 9781484347584

Keywords: Europe, Italy, Growth-friendly fiscal policy, public pensions, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Forecasting and Simulation, Social Security and Public Pensions, Italy

Published in late 2017, the Italian medium-term fiscal plan aims to achieve structural balance by 2020, although concrete, high-quality measures to meet the target are yet to be specified. This paper seeks to contr...

Fiscal Sustainability

Fiscal Sustainability »

Source: Fiscal Sustainability : A 21st Century Guide for the Perplexed

Volume/Issue: 2013/89

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Evan Tanner

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 April 2013

ISBN: 9781484381991

Keywords: Intertemporal solvency, tax smoothing, debt stabilization, fiscal rule, stochastic simulation, fiscal adjustment, budget constraint, Deficit, Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits

This paper critically reviews recent work regarding the sustainability of public debt. It argues that Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) should be more than mere mechanical simulation exercises. Instead, a DSA sho...

Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns

Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns »

Source: Modeling Stochastic Volatility with Application to Stock Returns

Volume/Issue: 2003/125

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Noureddine Krichene

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2003

ISBN: 9781451854848

Keywords: data augmentation, diagnostics, integration sampler, Kalman filter, Markov chain Monte Carlo, particle filtering, stochastic volatility, time series, sampling, equation

A stochastic volatility model where volatility was driven solely by a latent variable called news was estimated for three stock indices. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm was used for estimating Bayesian paramet...

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy »

Source: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms The Case of Italy

Volume/Issue: 2013/22

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Lusine Lusinyan , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 January 2013

ISBN: 9781475530865

Keywords: Growth, structural reforms, product market competition, macroeconomic policy coordination, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, labor market, labor supply, employment, labor productivity, Forecasting and Other Model Applications

Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF‘s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), atte...

French Public Finances
			: Modeling Long-Term Prospects and Reform Options

French Public Finances : Modeling Long-Term Prospects and Reform Options »

Volume/Issue: 1998/12

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Karl Habermeier , and Fabrice Lenseigne

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 1998

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451842876.001

ISBN: 9781451842876

Keywords: Population Aging, Economic Growth, Public Finance, Health Care, Stochastic Simulations, pension, retirement, retirement age

Over the coming decades, demographic developments will lead to a significant increase in public outlays on pensions and health care, relative to national income. This study extends earlier work by considering the a...

Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa

Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2007/180

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Edward Buffie , Stephen O'Connell , Catherine Pattillo , and Christopher Adam

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2007

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451867442.001

ISBN: 9781451867442

Keywords: Aid volatility, stochastic simulation models, exchange rate, inflation, foreign exchange, real exchange rate,

Since the turn of the century, aid flows to Africa have increased on average and become more volatile. As a result, policymakers, particularly in post-stabilization countries where inflation has only recently been...

Spillovers in the Nordic Countries

Spillovers in the Nordic Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2015/70

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Borislava Mircheva , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 27 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475554106.001

ISBN: 9781475554106

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, Nordic countries, gdp, demand, consumption, real gdp, investment, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden form a tightly integrated region which has strong ties with the euro area as well as some exposure to Russia. Using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF...

The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM

The Flexible System of Global Models - FSGM »

Volume/Issue: 2015/64

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Michal Andrle , Patrick Blagrave , Pedro Espaillat , Keiko Honjo , Benjamin Hunt , Mika Kortelainen , René Lalonde , Douglas Laxton , Eleonara Mavroeidi , Dirk Muir , Susanna Mursula , and Stephen Snudden

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 20 March 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475518665.001

ISBN: 9781475518665

Keywords: dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models, macroeconomic interdependence, consumption, investment, demand, trade, potential output, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments

The Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM) is a group of models developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis. A typical module of FSGM is a multi-region, forward-looking semi-structur...

Measures of Fiscal Risk in  Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries

Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries »

Volume/Issue: 2012/260

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Carlos Caceres , and Leandro Medina

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 30 October 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475530162.001

ISBN: 9781475530162

Keywords: stochastic simulations, volatility, break-even prices, exporting countries, commodity prices, break-even prices., Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Financial Forecasting and Simulation, General, Government Policy,

The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, mediu...

Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition

Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition »

Volume/Issue: 2018/119

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Philippe Karam , and Dirk Muir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 22 May 2018

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484357200.001

ISBN: 9781484357200

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Australia, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium; open economy macoeconomics; small open economy; open economy simulation, Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, open economy macoeconomics, small open economy, open economy simulation, Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics, International Policy Coordination and Transmission

China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links a...