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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy »

Source: Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

Volume/Issue: 2018/152

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Rania Al-Mashat , Hayk Avetisyan , Jaromir Benes , Olivier Bizimana , Aram Butavyan , Robert Ford , Narek Ghazaryan , Vahagn Grigoryan , Mane Harutyunyan , Anahit Hovhannisyan , Edgar Hovhannisyan , Hayk Karapetyan , Mariam Kharaishvili , Douglas Laxton , Akaki Liqokeli , Karolina Matikyan , Gevorg Minasyan , Shalva Mkhatrishvili , Armen Nurbekyan , Andrei Orlov , Babken Pashinyan , Garik Petrosyan , Yekaterina Rezepina , Aleksandr Shirkhanyan , Tamta Sopromadze , Lusine Torosyan , Erik Vardanyan , Hou Wang , and Jiaxiong Yao

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 06 July 2018

ISBN: 9781484366325

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Neutral Rate, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions...

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States »

Source: Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States

Volume/Issue: 2017/106

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Ali Alichi , Olivier Bizimana , Douglas Laxton , Kadir Tanyeri , Hou Wang , Jiaxiong Yao , and Fan Zhang

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 May 2017

ISBN: 9781475598384

Keywords: United States, Western Hemisphere, Potential output, Macroeconomic Modeling, Model Construction and Estimation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects)

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by La...

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs »

Source: Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs

Volume/Issue: 2014/128

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Francesco Furlanetto , Paolo Gelain , and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 18 July 2014

ISBN: 9781498305327

Keywords: Business cycles, Economic growth, Econometric models, Potential output, Macroprudential Policy, Monetary policy, Financial Frictions, Optimal Monetary Policy, Output Gap, inflation

The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial...

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1

Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic1 »

Source: Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic

Volume/Issue: 2016/250

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Roberto Garcia-Saltos , Fan Zhang , and Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 December 2016

ISBN: 9781475563153

Keywords: Potential output, Parameter estimation, Central America, Cross country analysis, Dominican Republic, Economic growth, Productivity, Econometric models, Western Hemisphere, macroeconomic modeling

This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital a...

Potential Growth in Colombia

Potential Growth in Colombia »

Volume/Issue: 2017/238

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sergi Lanau , Jorge Roldos , and Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 13 November 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484324929.001

ISBN: 9781484324929

Keywords: Western Hemisphere, Colombia, Potential output, Potential output; Colombia; Investment, Investment, General, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of curr...

Appendice statistique

Appendice statistique »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

L’appendice statistique présente des données rétrospectives et des projections. Il comprend six sections : hypothèses; modifications récentes; données et conventions; classification des pays; caractéristique...

Perspectives de l’économie mondiale questions d’actualité

Perspectives de l’économie mondiale questions d’actualité »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

Derniers numéros des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale...

Examen des perspectives par le conseil d’administration du FMI, avril 2015

Examen des perspectives par le conseil d’administration du FMI, avril 2015 »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

Observations du Président du Conseil d’administration à l’issue de la séance consacrée à l’examen des Perspectives de l’économie mondiale, du Rapport sur la stabilité financière dans le monde et...

Chapitre 1. Évolution récente et perspectives

Chapitre 1. Évolution récente et perspectives »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

En 2014, la croissance mondiale s’est établie modestement à 3,4 %, sous l’effet d’une accélération de la croissance dans les pays avancés par rapport à l’année précédente et d’un ralentissement...

Chapitre 2. Perspectives nationales et régionales

Chapitre 2. Perspectives nationales et régionales »

Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2015 : Uneven Growth: Short- and Long-Term Factors

Series: World Economic Outlook

Author(s): International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 16 June 2015

Language: French

ISBN: 9781484356920

Keywords: Global growth, trends, global shocks, exchange rates, market economies, public policy, oil prices, private fixed investment, potential output, new mediocre

L’économie mondiale devrait croître, selon les prévisions, de 3,5 % en 2015 et de 3,8 % en 2016, bien que les perspectives diffèrent selon les grands pays et régions considérés. La croissance ra...