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New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Source: New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Source: Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area

Financial Conditions Indexes for the United States and Euro Area »

Volume/Issue: 2011/93

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 April 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455253326.001

ISBN: 9781455253326

Keywords: Financial Conditions, Short-term Forecasting, Real-Time Data, forecasting, bond, bond spread, government bond, bond yield, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

Financial conditions indexes are developed for the United States and euro area using a wide range of financial indicators and a dynamic factor model. The financial conditions indexes are shown to be useful for fore...

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod

Some Simulation Properties of the Major Euro Area Economies in Multimod »

Volume/Issue: 2003/31

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Douglas Laxton , and Benjamin Hunt

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2003

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451845044.001

ISBN: 9781451845044

Keywords: Macroeconomic models, simulation properties, inflation, monetary policy, aggregate demand, nominal interest rate, monetary authority, Model Evaluation and Selection, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Public Economics: General,

This paper was prepared as part of a euro area macroeconomic model comparisons project. Four standard macroeconomic experiments are considered to illustrate the differences in dynamic adjustment properties of two v...

Forecasting U.S. Investment

Forecasting U.S. Investment »

Volume/Issue: 2010/246

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Pau Rabanal , and Jaewoo Lee

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455209460.001

ISBN: 9781455209460

Keywords: Great Recession, Recovery in U.S. Investment, cost of capital, capital stock, gdp growth, capital accumulation, business cycle, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be impor...

A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa

A Financial Conditions Index for South Africa »

Volume/Issue: 2012/196

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Nombulelo Gumata , Eliphas Ndou , and Nir Klein

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2012

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475505450.001

ISBN: 9781475505450

Keywords: Financial conditions index, factor analysis, gdp growth, explanatory power, granger causality, standard deviation, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman fi...

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off

Inflation Targeting and the Unemployment-Inflation Trade-off »

Volume/Issue: 2001/166

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Chorng-Huey Wong , Eric Clifton , and Gene Leon

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 October 2001

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451858105.001

ISBN: 9781451858105

Keywords: inflation targeting, credibility, Phillips curve, smooth transition regression models, inflation, central bank, monetary fund, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Inflation Targeting Credibility,

This paper examines the impact of the introduction of inflation targeting on the unemployment-inflation trade-off in OECD countries. Theoretical models suggest that the credibility-enhancing effects of the adoption...

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Credit Flows, Fiscal Policy, and the External Deficit of Bosnia and Herzegovina »

Volume/Issue: 2006/276

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Daniel Kanda

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2006

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781451865363.001

ISBN: 9781451865363

Keywords: Fiscal, monetary, trade balance, fiscal expenditure, fiscal tightening, disposable income, fiscal consolidation, Estimation, Model Construction and Estimation, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation

This paper develops and estimates a model of the trade balance of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Credit flows and the fiscal stance are found to play a significant role in determining the trade balance. On this basis the...

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time

New Indicators for Tracking Growth in Real Time »

Volume/Issue: 2011/43

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Troy Matheson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455218998.001

ISBN: 9781455218998

Keywords: Nowcasting, Short-term forecasting, Real-time data, gdp growth, forecasting, real gdp, equation, Model Construction and Estimation, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

We develop monthly indicators for tracking growth in 32 advanced and emerging-market economies. We test the historical performance of our indicators and find that they do a good job at describing the business cycle...

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation

Consensus Forecasts and Inefficient Information Aggregation »

Volume/Issue: 2010/178

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christopher Crowe

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2010

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781455201891.001

ISBN: 9781455201891

Keywords: Consensus Forecasts, Information Aggregation, Forecast Efficiency, efficiency, forecast horizons, forecast errors, forecast horizon, forecast error, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation,

Consensus forecasts are inefficient, over-weighting older information already in the public domain at the expense of new private information, when individual forecasters have different information sets. Using a cro...