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The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters

The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters »

Source: The Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Matters : Policy Simulations for Hungary

Volume/Issue: 2013/207

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Alejandro Guerson

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 04 October 2013

ISBN: 9781484305225

Keywords: DSGE models, overlapping generations households, liquidity constrained households, financial accelerator, macro-financial linkages, investment, goods, consumption, gdp, taxes

This paper evaluates policy alternatives to achieve permanent fiscal consolidation in Hungary, based on a general equilibrium calibration. The main finding is that the composition of the consolidation, as determine...

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress »

Source: International Transmission of Bank and Corporate Distress

Volume/Issue: 2010/124

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Papa N'Diaye , Dale Gray , Natalia Tamirisa , Hiroko Oura , and Qianying Chen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2010

ISBN: 9781455200832

Keywords: bank, corporate, distress, GVAR, financial, international, probability, bank distress, probabilities, bank default

The paper evaluates how increases in banks' and nonfinancial corporates' default risk are transmitted in the global economy, using in a vector autoregression model for 30 advanced and emerging economies for the per...

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

International Reserve Adequacy in Central America »

Source: International Reserve Adequacy in Central America

Volume/Issue: 2011/144

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Kristin Magnussen

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455268443

Keywords: Foreign reserves, balance of payments crises, financial dollarization, international reserves, external debt, exchange rate, emerging markets, current account, International Finance Forecasting and Simulation, Open Economy Macroeconomics,

Countries' absolute and relative international reserves adequacy has recently attracted considerable attention. The analysis has however concentrated on the largest and most advanced economies. We apply various met...

Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle

Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle »

Source: Financial Frictions and Sources of Business Cycle

Volume/Issue: 2014/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 October 2014

ISBN: 9781498347792

Keywords: DSGE, Bayesian Estimation, Financial Frictions, Sources of Business Cycle, business cycle, business cycle fluctuations, Bayesian Analysis, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets

This paper estimates a New Keynesian DSGE model with an explicit financial intermediary sector. Having measures of financial stress, such as the spread between lending and borrowing, enables the model to capture th...

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe

Cross-Country Linkages in Europe »

Source: Cross-Country Linkages in Europe : A Global VAR Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2013/194

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Yan Sun , Frigyes Heinz , and Giang Ho

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 September 2013

ISBN: 9781484345474

Keywords: Spillover, Global VAR, regional model, macro-financial linkages, emerging Europe, gdp growth, real gdp, inflation, growth rate, long-term interest rates

This paper uses the Global VAR (GVAR) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2004) to study cross-country linkages among euro area countries, other advanced European countries (including the Nordics, the UK, etc.), and...

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries

Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries »

Source: Exchange Rates in the New EU Accession Countries : What Have We Learned from the Forerunners?

Volume/Issue: 2005/27

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Katerina Smídková , and Ales Bulir

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 February 2005

ISBN: 9781451860467

Keywords: Sustainable real exchange rates, ERM2, exchange rate, exchange rates, real exchange rate, fdi, real exchange rates, International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

Estimation and simulation of sustainable real exchange rates in some of the new EU accession countries point to potential difficulties in sustaining the ERM2 regime if entered too soon and with weak policies. Accor...

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets

Business Cycles in Emerging Markets »

Source: Business Cycles in Emerging Markets : The Role of Durable Goods and Financial Frictions

Volume/Issue: 2011/133

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): International Monetary Fund

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2011

ISBN: 9781455259380

Keywords: real business cycles, durables, financial frictions, business cycles, total consumption, interest rates, business cycle, elasticity of substitution, Open Economy Macroeconomics, Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation,

This paper examines how durable goods and financial frictions shape the business cycle of a small open economy subject to shocks to trend and transitory shocks. In the data, nondurable consumption is not as volatil...

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises? »

Volume/Issue: 2013/267

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Camelia Minoiu , Chanhyun Kang , V.S. Subrahmanian , and Anamaria Berea

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 December 2013

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781475554250.001

ISBN: 9781475554250

Keywords: financial networks, banking, banking systems, Global Outlook, Financial Aspects of Economic Integration, Forecasting and Simulation,

The global financial crisis has reignited interest in models of crisis prediction. It has also raised the question whether financial connectedness - a possible source of systemic risk - can serve as an early warnin...

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary
			: Results from a Large Bayesian VAR

Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary : Results from a Large Bayesian VAR »

Volume/Issue: 2011/259

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Adina Popescu , and Alina Carare

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 November 2011

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781463923983.001

ISBN: 9781463923983

Keywords: Risk premium shocks, Transmission mechanism, Large Bayesian VAR, inflation, central bank, financial stability, foreign currency, General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation, Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation, Bayesian Analysis

We document the transmission of monetary policy and risk-premium shocks in Hungary, by applying recent advances in the Bayesian estimation of large VAR models. The method allows extracting information from over 100...

Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France

Incorporating Macro-Financial Linkages into Forecasts Using Financial Conditions Indices: The Case of France »

Volume/Issue: 2017/269

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Piyabha Kongsamut , Christian Mumssen , Anne-Charlotte Paret , and Thierry Tressel

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 December 2017

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5089/9781484330968.001

ISBN: 9781484330968

Keywords: Europe, France, Forecasting, financial conditions index, macro-financial linkages, vector auto-regression, refers to exports volume of goods, General, Forecasting and Simulation

How can information on financial conditions be used to better understand macroeconomic developments and improve macroeconomic projections? We investigate this question for France by constructing country-specific fi...