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  • genre: journal x
  • volume: 2014 x
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, December 2014
International Monetary Fund
The December 2015 IMF Research Bulletin features a sampling of key research from the IMF. The Research Summaries in this issue look at “The Impact of Deflation and Lowflation on Fiscal Aggregates (Nicolas End, Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba, Gilbert Terrier, and Renaud Duplay); and “Oil Exporters at the Crossroads: It Is High Time to Diversify” (Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov). Mahvash Saeed Qureshi provides an overview of the fifth Lindau Meeting in Economics in “Meeting the Nobel Giants.” In the Q&A column on “Seven Questions on Financial Frictions and the Sources of the Business Cycle, Marzie Taheri Sanjani looks at the driving forces of the business cycle and macroeconomic models. The top-viewed articles in 2014 from the IMF Economic Review are highlighted, along with recent IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and IMF publications.
Keywords:
IRB; IMF Team; IMF research bulletin; emerging market volatility; monetary policy interaction; IMF department; IMF research; Deflation; Oil prices; Financial frictions; Oil; Income inequality; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Vers de nouveaux horizons : La transformation économique sur fond de transition politique dans le monde arabe
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
Les mutations du paysage politique dans le monde arabe ouvrent des perspectives pour transformer l'économie en remédiant à des problèmes économiques de longue date. Néanmoins, trois ans après le début de la transition politique dans le monde arabe, force est de constater qu'il a été difficile de gérer les transitions et de mettre en œuvre les réformes économiques nécessaires. Ce document présente des éléments de réformes essentiels dans le domaine de la politique économique pour les pays arabes en transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani

The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.

Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy; Exchange rate flexibility; Employment; Global; North Africa; East Asia; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Policy Papers
Review of the Flexible Credit Line, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and the Rapid Financing Instrument - Specific Proposals
International Monetary Fund
This paper responds to Directors’ request at the time of the February discussions of the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for further analysis focusing on three key issues: - The alignment of the FCL and PLL qualification criteria. The paper proposes a qualification framework for PLL arrangements based on the nine FCL criteria aiming to improve the transparency and predictability of PLL decisions, while maintaining the current qualification standards. The paper also proposes a refinement of the bank solvency criterion. - The operationalization of an external stress index. The paper proposes a methodology to calculate a new index to strengthen discussions of a country’s external risks. Such an index would be presented to the Board at the time of requests for, or reviews under, FCL and PLL arrangements. - The use of indicators of institutional strength. The paper argues that a limited set of new institutional indicators could be used to help broaden the indicators of institutional strength already identified in the FCL and PLL Operational Guidance Notes
Keywords:
PP; arrangement; qualification criteria; FYR Macedonia PCL; PLL qualification requirement; access limit; PLL user; PLL arrangement; fcl arrangement; PLL instrument access cap; Bank solvency; Balance of payments need; Lines of credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Senegal: Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument and Request for Modification of an Assessment Criterion—Staff Report; Informational Annex; Press Release and Executive Director’s Statement
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Article IV consultation with Senegal was completed by the Executive Board on December 10, 2012. In concluding the 2012 Article IV consultation, executive directors commended Senegal’s satisfactory program implementation despite the challenging internal and external environments. They stressed that although a moderate pickup in growth is expected in the near term, the economy remains exposed to substantial risks. Directors welcomed the authorities’ continued commitment to their program to ensure macroeconomic stability, strengthen the economy’s resilience to shocks, foster higher and sustainable growth, and reduce poverty. Directors noted that, while Senegal still faces a low risk of debt distress, high fiscal deficits and rising debt ratios need to be addressed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; management system; public expenditure; debt management; authorities' intention; development agenda; reform program; private sector development; Government debt management; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; investment plan; Policy discussion; deficit target; authorities aim
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Bank Size and Systemic Risk
Mr. Luc Laeven
,
Mr. Lev Ratnovski
, and
Mr. Hui Tong
The proposed SDN documents the evolution of bank size and activities over the past 20 years. It discusses whether this evolution can be explained by economies of scale or “too big to fail” subsidies. The paper then presents evidence on the extent to which bank size and market-based activities contribute to systemic risk. The paper concludes with policy messages in the area of capital regulation and activity restrictions to reduce the systemic risk posed by large banks. The analysis of the paper complements earlier Fund work, including SDN 13/04 and the recent GFSR chapter on “too big to fail” subsidies, and its policy message is in line with this earlier work.
Keywords:
SDN; large bank; bank risk; bank size; bank activity; bank characteristic; Financial Structure; Financial Regulation; Systemic risk; Personal income; Stocks; Commercial banks; Global; Europe
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Fiscal Multipliers: Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections
Nicoletta Batini
,
Luc Eyraud
, and
Lorenzo Forni
Fiscal multipliers are important tools for macroeconomic projections and policy design. In many countries, little is known about the size of multipliers, as data availability limits the scope for empirical research. This note provides general guidance on the definition, measurement, and use of fiscal multipliers. It reviews the literature related to their size, persistence and determinants. For countries where no reliable estimate is available, the note proposes a simple method to come up with reasonable values. Finally, the note presents options to incorporate multipliers in macroeconomic forecasts.
Keywords:
TNM; spending; government spending; revenue management; spending shock; stance factor; Fiscal policy; fiscal multipliers; fiscal multiplier; multiplier estimate; multipliers in EME; shock effect; Fiscal consolidation; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
and
Mr. Steven A Barnett
China weathered the global financial crisis better than most, thanks to a large and timely stimulus. This stimulus, however, was mainly in the form of off-budget infrastructure spending and thus not visible in the headline fiscal data. We construct a time series for the augmented fiscal deficit and debt—augmented to include off-budget activity—that better illustrates the counter-cyclical role of fiscal policy. The results also show that the augmented fiscal deficit and debt are both considerably higher than the headline government data suggest. Nonetheless, at around 45 percent of GDP, the augmented debt is still at a manageable level.
Keywords:
WP; IMF staff estimate; debt stock; fiscal deficit; balance sheet; bank loan; government debt; net proceeds; Fiscal Vulnerabilities; Fiscal Risks; Local Government Finance; China; Land Finance; Gross Financing Needs; Debt sustainability; LGFV debt; debt shock; local government; maturing debt; debt issuance; debt estimate; government debt stock; SOE debt; augmented fiscal deficit; Government debt management; Infrastructure; Contingent liabilities; Global