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  • genre: journal x
  • volume: 2019 x
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Bulletin, Fall-Winter 2019
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
It has been two years since the trade tensions erupted and not only captured policymakers’ but also the research community’s attention. Research has quickly zoomed in on understanding trade war rhetoric, tariff implementation, and economic impacts. The first article in the December 2019 issue sheds light on the consequences of the recent trade barriers.
Keywords:
IRB; trade; debt measurement; exporter; policy session; firm; Mundell-Fleming Lecture; US-China trade tension; tariff factor; Exports; Tariffs; Infrastructure; Big data; Trade liberalization; Global; East Asia; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa; Europe; Africa; threshold ModelsHow; ship movement; TrajectoriesThe global financial crisis; Imports; Asia and Pacific
Cover Departmental Papers
Economic Integration in the Maghreb: An Untapped Source of Growth
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Mr. Babacar Sarr
,
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Yufei Cai
, and
Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Maghreb country; Maghreb trade; export structure; factory Maghreb; growth potential; integration arrangement; private sector; Maghreb integration; trade policy; Exports; Regional integration; Comparative advantage; Trade integration; Trade policy; Maghreb; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Economic Integration in the Maghreb: An Untapped Source of Growth
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Mr. Babacar Sarr
,
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Yufei Cai
, and
Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Maghreb country; Maghreb trade; export structure; factory Maghreb; growth potential
Cover Policy Papers
Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on the IMF Financial Surveillance
International Monetary Fund
The IEO report provides a welcome opportunity to reflect on the IMF’s initiatives to expand and deepen its financial surveillance work in response to the Global Financial Crisis. In order to improve the relevance and traction of bilateral financial surveillance, the IMF needs to deepen financial and macrofinancial analysis, particularly in Article IV consultations, including by taking practical steps to better integrate Financial Sector Assessment Program analysis in Article IV consultations and by increasing financial skills and expertise among staff. The IMF should continue to work to enhance the impact of IMF multilateral surveillance by increasing rigor and transparency, and by deepening collaboration with international partners. On scaling-up the IMF’s work with the international regulatory agencies to assess the impact of reforms, the IMF has undertaken several assessments of different aspects of the reforms following the 2012 Financial Surveillance Strategy. Some of these have been conducted jointly with the Standard Setting Bodies.
Keywords:
PP; refocusing FSAP country selection; budget discussion; FSAP resource; country selection; IEO report
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ukraine: Request for Stand-By Arrangement and Cancellation of Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Ukrainian authorities have been able to restore macro-economic stability and growth following the severe economic crisis of 2014–15. However, efforts to create a more dynamic, open, and competitive economy have fallen short of expectations, and the economy still faces important challenges. Investment, particularly foreign direct investment, is held back by a difficult business environment, while large numbers of worker seek job opportunities abroad as economic growth is too low for incomes to noticeably close the gap with regional peers. Reserves have recovered, but remain relatively low, while the economy is still vulnerable to shocks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; heating tariff; macro-economic stability; prudent fiscal policy; regime; heating company; distribution tariff; IMF staff estimate; Currencies; Fuel prices; Europe; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Economic Integration in the Maghreb: An Untapped Source of Growth
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Mr. Babacar Sarr
,
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Yufei Cai
, and
Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Maghreb country; Maghreb trade; export structure; factory Maghreb; growth potential
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Fiscal Policy and Development: Human, Social, and Physical Investments for the SDGs
Vitor Gaspar
,
Mr. David Amaglobeli
,
Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
,
Delphine Prady
, and
Mauricio Soto
The goal of this paper is to estimate the additional annual spending required for meaningful progress on the SDGs in these areas. Our estimates refer to additional spending in 2030, relative to a baseline of current spending to GDP in these sectors. Toward this end, we apply an innovative costing methodology to a sample of 155 countries: 49 low- income developing countries, 72 emerging market economies, and 34 advanced economies. And we refine the analysis with five country studies: Rwanda, Benin, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Guatemala.
Keywords:
SDN; developing country; low-income developing countries; emerging market economy; spending; GDP; Sustainable Development Goals; Development; Fiscal Policy; equity-enhancing expenditure priority; spending pressure; enhancing spending efficiency; countries spend; spending estimate; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Sustainable Development Goals (SDG); Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy Analytical Tool: Data Preparation Manual
Mr. Emre Balibek
,
Mr. Tobias Haque
,
Diego Rivetti
, and
Ms. Miriam Tamene
Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy Analytical Tool: Data Preparation Manual
Keywords:
TNM; foreign currency; debt instrument; MTDS; Debt Management Strategy; Debt Management; Debt Portfolio Cost; Risk Analysis; debt portfolio; worksheet column; index-linked debt instruments; aggregation worksheet; undisbursed debt; debt datum; debt recording system; assigning debt instrument; debt data; worksheet Debt Original Currency; debt Data Preparation; currency denomination; Currencies; Securities; Interest payments; Loans; Exchange rates
Cover IMF Working Papers
Does an Inclusive Citizenship Law Promote Economic Development?
Patrick A. Imam
and
Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
This paper analyzes the impact of citizenship laws on economic development. We first document the evolution of citizenship laws around the world, highlighting the main features of jus soli, jus sanguinis as well as mixed regimes, and shedding light on the channels through which they could have differentiated impact on economic development. We then compile a data set of citizenship laws around the world. Using cross-country regressions, panel-data techniques, as well as the synthetic control method and subjecting the results to a battery of tests, we find robust evidence that jus soli laws—being more inclusive—lead to higher income levels than alternative citizenship rules in developing countries, though to a less extent in countries with stronger institutional environment.
Keywords:
WP; citizenship law; economic development; dummy variable; law country; country authorities; naturalization law; Citizenship laws; legal origin; Western Hemisphere country; regime country; government activity; country of immigrant; common law country; civil law; country's citizenship; sub-Saharan country; civil law country; Personal income; Migration; Legal support in revenue administration; Sub-Saharan Africa; Western Hemisphere; Europe
Cover FinTech Notes
Regulation of Crypto Assets
Cristina Cuervo
,
Anastasiia Morozova
, and
Nobuyasu Sugimoto
The rapid growth of crypto assets has raised questions about the appropriate regulatory perimeter and the ability of the existing regulatory architecture to adapt to changing conditions. Effective regulation of financial services promotes long- term economic stability and minimizes the social costs and negative externalities from financial instability. The same underlying principles for regulation should apply to nascent products and services based on innovative technologies, notwithstanding design challenges.