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  • genre: journal x
  • issn: 2616-5333 x
  • volume: 2020 x
Cover Departmental Papers
Stress Testing in Sub-Saharan Africa: Practices, Communications, and Capacity Development
Mindaugas Leika
,
Hector Perez-Saiz
,
Ms. Olga Ilinichna Stankova
, and
Torsten Wezel
The paper finds that supervisory stress tests are conducted in more than half of sub-Saharan African countries, particularly in western and southern Africa, and that the number of individual stress tests has grown exponentially since the early 2010s. By contrast, few central banks publish assessments of macro-financial linkages; the focus leans more toward discussing trends and weaknesses within the financial sector than on outside risks that may negatively affect its performance.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; risk; financial risk; bank; market; process; liquidity risk; market risk; interest rate; macro-financial risk assessment; risk analysis; Stress testing; Financial sector stability; Communications in revenue administration; Credit risk; Commercial banks; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; stress test result; risk weight; IMF TA; banking sector risk; bank supervisor; concentration risk; banking risk; macro-financial risk analysis; asset concentration risk; risk driver
Cover Departmental Papers
The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region
Mr. Tokhir N Mirzoev
,
Ling Zhu
,
Yang Yang
,
Ms. Tian Zhang
,
Mr. Erik Roos
,
Mr. Andrea Pescatori
, and
Mr. Akito Matsumoto
The Future of Oil and Fiscal Sustainability in the GCC Region
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; price; demand; GCC country; GCC region; oil demand
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency
Cover Departmental Papers
The Promise of Fintech: Financial Inclusion in the Post COVID-19 Era
Ms. Ratna Sahay
,
Mr. Ulric Eriksson von Allmen
,
Ms. Amina Lahreche
,
Purva Khera
,
Ms. Sumiko Ogawa
,
Majid Bazarbash
, and
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
Technology is changing the landscape of the financial sector, increasing access to financial services in profound ways. These changes have been in motion for several years, affecting nearly all countries in the world. During the COVID-19 pandemic, technology has created new opportunities for digital financial services to accelerate and enhance financial inclusion, amid social distancing and containment measures. At the same time, the risks emerging prior to COVID-19, as digital financial services developed, are becoming even more relevant.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Fintech company; fintech lender; use of big data; credit market; Fintech companies in the United States; payment service; supervised fintech company; Financial inclusion; Fintech; Mobile banking; COVID-19; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Sectoral Policies for Climate Change Mitigation in the EU
Mr. Nicolas Arregui
,
Ms. Ruo Chen
,
Mr. Christian H Ebeke
,
Jan-Martin Frie
,
Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Ms. Dora M Iakova
,
Andreas Jobst
,
Louise Rabier
,
Mr. James Roaf
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
, and
Mr. Sebastian Weber
This paper discusses sectoral policies needed to achieve the ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets announced in the European Union’s Green Deal, complementing the companion paper “EU Climate Mitigation Policy”, which focuses on broader EU-level policies. With total emissions nearly a quarter below their 1990 level, the EU has made important progress, but the new goals will require much stronger policy action. Moreover, progress has varied across sectors. Emissions from power and industry have fallen by about a third, buildings by a quarter and agriculture by a fifth – while transport emissions have risen. This paper argues that this divergence reflects differences in effective carbon prices, but also cost differences among the available abatement channels, market imperfections, and policy gaps. It discusses specific sectoral policies needed to address these factors and achieve the new emissions reduction goals.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; climate change; GHG emission; country list; EU country; renewable energy; emission reduction; road transport; EU emission; Greenhouse gas emissions; Transportation; Carbon tax; Renewable energy; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
EU Climate Mitigation Policy
Mr. Jiaqian Chen
,
Maksym Chepeliev
,
Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia
,
Ms. Dora M Iakova
,
Mr. James Roaf
,
Ms. Anna Shabunina
,
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe
, and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
This paper aims to contribute to the debate on the choice of policies to reach the more ambitious 2030 emission reduction goals currently under consideration. It provides an analysis of the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of different options to scale up the mitigation effort, and proposes enhancements to the existing EU policies. A key finding is that a well-designed package, consisting of more extensive carbon pricing across EU countries and sectors, combined with cuts in distortionary taxes and targeted green investment support, would allow the EU to reach the emission goals with practically no effects on aggregate income. To enhance the social and political acceptance of climate policies, part of the revenue from carbon pricing should be used to compensate the most vulnerable households and to support the transition of workers to greener jobs. A carbon border adjustment mechanism could complement the package to avoid an increase in emissions outside the EU due to higher carbon prices in the EU (“carbon leakage”). From a risk-reward perspective, the benefits of reducing the risk of extreme life-threatening climate events and the health benefits from lower air pollution clearly outweigh the costs of mitigation policies.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; EU emission; EU mitigation Policy framework; trading partner; ETS price; EU climate adaptation; EU effort; EU GHG emission; EU Policy framework; EU production emission; EU taxonomy; EU directive; EU recovery; price volatility; Carbon tax; Greenhouse gas emissions; Sustainable growth; Income; Emissions trading; Global; Eastern Europe; EU export; carbon price signal
Cover Departmental Papers
Stress Testing at the IMF
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Mr. James Morsink
, and
Miss Liliana B Schumacher
This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; bank; IMF staff; stress tests; bank exposure; cash flow; funding cost; share price; defaults affect bank asset value; IMF solvency stress tests; optimization process; bank capital; IMF team; counterbalancing capacity; Stress testing; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Systemic risk; Solvency; Solvency stress testing; Global; Financial sector stability
Cover Departmental Papers
Reserve Currencies in an Evolving International Monetary System
Alina Iancu
,
Gareth Anderson
,
Mr. Sakai Ando
,
Ethan Boswell
,
Mr. Andrea Gamba
,
Shushanik Hakobyan
,
Ms. Lusine Lusinyan
,
Mr. Neil Meads
, and
Mr. Yiqun Wu
Despite major structural shifts in the international monetary system over the past six decades, the US dollar remains the dominant international reserve currency. Using a newly compiled database of individual economies’ reserve holdings by currency, this departmental paper finds that financial links have been an increasingly important driver of reserve currency configurations since the global financial crisis, particularly for emerging market and developing economies. The paper also finds a rise in inertial effects, implying that the US dollar dominance is likely to endure. But historical precedents of sudden changes suggest that new developments, such as the emergence of digital currencies and new payments ecosystems, could accelerate the transition to a new landscape of reserve currencies.
Keywords:
Foreign exchange reserves; international currency; currency composition of reserves; international debt and cross-border bank claims; DPPP; DP; reserve currency share; currency composition; currency denomination; transfer service; invoicing currency; currency holding; Reserve currencies; Currencies; Digital currencies; International reserves; Central Bank digital currencies; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency; IMF emergency financing operation; health care spending adequacy; care spending; public health care spending; wasteful spending; consumption expenditure; foreign-aid-funded spending; infant mortality; Health care spending; Education spending; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Systemic Banking Crises: New Lessons and Lessons Relearned
Ms. Marina Moretti
,
Mr. Marc C Dobler
, and
Mr. Alvaro Piris Chavarri
This paper updates the IMF’s work on general principles, strategies, and techniques from an operational perspective in preparing for and managing systemic banking crises in light of the experiences and challenges faced during and since the global financial crisis. It summarizes IMF advice concerning these areas from staff of the IMF Monetary and Capital Markets Department (MCM), drawing on Executive Board Papers, IMF staff publications, and country documents (including program documents and technical assistance reports). Unless stated otherwise, the guidance is generally applicable across the IMF membership.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; balance sheet; financial crisis; bridge bank; insurance fund; economic activity; public funds; bank; authority; process; bank liquidity; beneficial owner; due diligence; banking system; equity capital; targeted bank diagnostic; financial activity; cash flow; home resolution authority; bank risk; cash limit; Bank resolution framework; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Deposit insurance; Crisis management; Global; Europe