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  • genre: journal x
  • issn: 2616-5333 x
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency
Cover Departmental Papers
Ireland: Lessons from Its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop
International Monetary Fund
Ireland’s major property bubble burst at the same time as the global financial crisis erupted, plunging the country into a severe recession in 2008–10. Public debt climbed rapidly as revenues collapsed and as banks’ rising loan losses increasingly required public support. Following the Greek crisis in spring 2010 and emerging tensions in the euro area, the last act in the process saw the operation of the “sovereign-bank loop”—a vicious cycle where uncertainty about banks’ health fed into doubts around the sustainability of public debt, which only added to fears about the banks. The government lost access to market financing at manageable interest rates, and Ireland entered into a three-year program supported by €67.5 billion of financial assistance from the European Union (EU) and IMF in late 2010. Ireland’s program therefore had three main goals: restoring the viability of the banking system; putting the public finances on a sustainable path and returning to market funding; and restarting economic recovery including by improving growth potential. A large bank recapitalization in early 2011 helped stabilize deposits and other bank funding. The government’s access to market financing was progressively regained from mid 2012, enabling Ireland to exit the program at the end of 2013 and rely fully on market financing at highly favorable terms. The first signs of recovery were seen in strong job creation starting in the second half of 2012, and Ireland’s recent economic figures have surpassed even the most optimistic expectations, with growth of about 5 percent in 2014. Seeking to draw lessons for Ireland, the EU, and the IMF, as well as other countries facing similar challenges, the Central Bank of Ireland (CBI), the Centre for Economic Policy and Research (CEPR), and the IMF organized a conference titled “Ireland—Lessons from Its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop.” Held on January 19, 2015, at the historic Dublin Castle, it brought together Irish government representatives, European officials, academics, journalists, private sector representatives, and other stakeholders, as well as the IMF’s Managing Director. The conference discussions were anchored by three papers by leading international academics and moderated by journalists familiar with the issues. The event concluded with a high-level panel discussion by senior policymakers.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; potential GDP; output gap; senior debt; cash injection; banking system; central bank; fiscal policy; financial crisis; Fiscal consolidation; Commercial banks; Loans; Potential output; Europe; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe
Nazim Belhocine
,
Ernesto Crivelli
,
Ms. Nan Geng
,
Tiberiu Scutaru
,
Mr. Johannes Wiegand
, and
Zaijin Zhan
The demands on monetary and exchange rate regimes in CESEE have evolved, in line with the region’s development. In the 1990s, the immediate challenge was to rein in excessive inflation following transition, and to establish basic monetary order. These objectives have been achieved, owing largely to successful exchange rate–based stabilization. With this accomplished, the focus has shifted to cyclical monetary management, and to appropriately managing monetary conditions during CESEE’s growth and income convergence to the euro area. Flexible exchange rates—and the ensuing capacity of monetary conditions to adapt to the economies’ needs—are likely to remain advantages, especially to extent that CESEE’s GDP and income levels will resume convergence to the euro area. Once this process restarts, tighter monetary conditions will again be needed to limit goods and asset price inflation, and to contain growth imbalances.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate regime; inflation targeting; foreign currency; carry trade; financial crisis; monetary policy; exchange rate flexibility; CESEE economy; stabilization program; Exchange rate flexibility; Exchange rate arrangements; Conventional peg; Inflation; Currencies; Baltics; Global; Western Europe; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency; IMF emergency financing operation; health care spending adequacy; care spending; public health care spending; wasteful spending; consumption expenditure; foreign-aid-funded spending; infant mortality; Health care spending; Education spending; Middle East and Central Asia; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency
Cover Departmental Papers
Social Spending for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mr. Koshy Mathai
,
Mr. Christoph Duenwald
,
Ms. Anastasia Guscina
,
Rayah Al-Farah
,
Mr. Hatim Bukhari
,
Mr. Atif Chaudry
,
Moataz El-Said
,
Fozan Fareed
,
Mrs. Kerstin Gerling
,
Nghia-Piotr Le
,
Mr. Franto Ricka
,
Mr. Cesar Serra
,
Tetyana Sydorenko
,
Mr. Sébastien Walker
, and
Mr. Mohammed Zaher
This paper examines the role of social spending in improving socioeconomic outcomes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In particular, it addresses the following questions: (1) how large is social spending across the region? (2) how do countries in the region fare on socioeconomic outcomes? (3) how important is social spending as a determinant of these outcomes? and (4) how efficient is social spending in the region?
Keywords:
Social spending; Social protection; Inclusive growth; DPPP; DP; IMF staff calculation; spend; purchasing power parity; spending efficiency
Cover Departmental Papers
Macro-Financial Linkages in Shallow Markets: Experience from the African Department’s Pilot Countries
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper assesses and disseminates experiences and lessons from low-income countries (LICs) in Sub-Saharan Africa that were selected by the Africa Department in 2015-16 as pilots for enhanced analysis of macro-financial linkages in Article IV staff reports. The paper focuses on the common characteristics across the pilot countries and highlights the tools used in the analysis, the challenges encountered, and the solutions deployed in overcoming them.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; interest rate; credit risk; central bank; banking sector; bank competition; cost of funds; composite index; lending condition; Malawian bank; economic value; bank information cost; financial system assets; banking system assets; bank level; banks in Benin; bank agent; Financial sector development; Financial sector; Stress testing; Credit; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa; Middle East; East Asia
Cover Departmental Papers
Taxing Multinationals in Europe
Ernesto Crivelli
,
Ruud A. de Mooij
,
J. E. J. De Vrijer
,
Mr. Shafik Hebous
, and
Mr. Alexander D Klemm
This paper aims to contribute to the European policy debate on corporate income tax reform in three ways. First, it takes a step back to review the performance of the CIT in Europe over the past several decades and the important role played by MNEs in European economies. Second, it analyses corporate tax spillovers in Europe with a focus on the channels and magnitudes of both profit shifting and CIT competition. Third, the paper examines the progress made in European CIT coordination and discusses reforms to strengthen the harmonization of corporate tax policies, in order to effectively reduce both tax competition and profit shifting.
Keywords:
Europe; International taxation; Corporate taxation; Multinational corporations; Corporate profits; Tax competition; MNE profits; revenue effect; EU code of conduct; effects of the CCCTB reform; profit shifting; Corporate income tax; Corporate taxes; Competition; Formula apportionment; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Strategy for Fintech Applications in the Pacific Island Countries
Sonja Davidovic
,
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
,
Cormac Sullivan
, and
Hervé Tourpe
The Bali Fintech Agenda highlights 12 principles for policymakers to consider when formulating their approaches to new financial technology (fintech). The agenda aims to harness the potential of fintech while managing associated risks. This paper looks at how some elements of the Bali Fintech Agenda could be used in Pacific island countries, which face significant financial-structural challenges.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; private sector; payment system; data protection; Pacific island countries; big data; credit scoring; financial system; business model; transaction costs; due diligence; feasibility study; capital investment; utility payment record; solar-panel-enabled payment device; payment development; payment history; customer data; identity system; Fintech; Financial inclusion; Mobile banking; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover Departmental Papers
Strengthening Capital Markets--National Progress and Gaps
Cristina Cuervo
,
Jennifer Long
, and
Richard Stobo
This paper discusses progress on post-global financial crisis (GFC) reforms and the emerging challenges in the area of capital markets regulation and supervision, drawing on the analysis and insights from the IMF’s Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). FSAP analyses sheds light on the implementation of post-GFC reforms to strengthen prudential and conduct supervision of capital markets and highlights new regulatory and supervisory challenges arising from several factors such as the growth of bond markets, benchmark transition, digitalization, and climate change. Key takeaways regarding implementation of post-GFC reform include significant progress with respect to oversight of market intermediaries and infrastructures and a case for further regulatory and supervisory action to address vulnerabilities arising from the high and rising interconnectedness of the asset management sector with the global economy, especially to foster stronger liquidity risk management. Emerging priority areas underscore the importance of ensuring the adequacy of issuer disclosures and quality of auditing; of examining and appropriately calibrating the regulatory perimeter in light of market developments; and of proactively safeguarding the operational independence of supervisory authorities and adequacy of their resources for implementation of regulatory frameworks that are fit-for-purpose in light of market developments and evolution.
Keywords:
Capital markets regulation supervision; capital markets regulation; derivatives regulator; securities regulator; OTC derivative; reform agenda; Securities markets; Financial Sector Assessment Program; Derivative markets; Financial sector stability; Global