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  • genre: journal x
  • issn: 2616-5333 x
Cover Departmental Papers
Paraguay: Addressing the Stagnation and Instability Trap
Alejandro Santos
Paraguay: Addressing the Stagnation and Instability Trap provides an overview of the analytical insights and policy challenges that a country faces while on the path to sustained growth with stability. It covers a wide range of themes, including improving macroeconomic assessments and policy implementation, eliminating turbulence and deepening financial reforms, and, most important of all, enhancing growth performance and reducing poverty. This book provides useful guidance for policymakers by examining the improvements in policy implementation in Paraguay since the regional crisis of 2002. The chapters discuss how to correct economic imbalances and institutional shortcomings in the context of an economic reform program. The results have been impressive with the Paraguayan economy experiencing the highest growth in a quarter of a century and the strongest financial system in decades.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; central bank; U.S. dollar; output gap; real GDP; interest rate; core inflation; consumer price index; financial system; private sector; nominal exchange rate; Inflation; Exchange rates; Currencies; Real exchange rates; Global; South America; East Asia; Caribbean; Asia and Pacific; near-term outlook; Empresa de Servicios Sanitarios de Paraguay; IMF's Monetary; Resident Representative Office of the IMF; desk economist; Real effective exchange rates; Western Hemisphere
Cover Departmental Papers
Vers de nouveaux horizons : La transformation économique sur fond de transition politique dans le monde arabe
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
Les mutations du paysage politique dans le monde arabe ouvrent des perspectives pour transformer l'économie en remédiant à des problèmes économiques de longue date. Néanmoins, trois ans après le début de la transition politique dans le monde arabe, force est de constater qu'il a été difficile de gérer les transitions et de mettre en œuvre les réformes économiques nécessaires. Ce document présente des éléments de réformes essentiels dans le domaine de la politique économique pour les pays arabes en transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era
Changyong Rhee
and
Katsiaryna Svirydzenka
The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.
Keywords:
Policy Advice; Pandemic; Asia; DPPP; DP; containment measure; potential GDP; sample firm; illiquid firm; investment regression; nonfinancial firm; nonviable firm; rising debt; COVID-19; Yield curve; Central bank policy rate; Sovereign bonds; Global; Asia and Pacific; South Asia; Pacific Islands; Australia and New Zealand
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani
The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy
Cover Departmental Papers
Managing Global Growth Risks and Commodity Price Shocks: Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries: Vulnerabilities and Policy Challenges for Low-Income Countries
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
As part of its work to help low-income countries manage volatility, the IMF has developed an analytical framework for assessing vulnerabilities and emerging risks that arise from changes in the external environment. This paper draws on the results of the first vulnerability exercise for low-income countries conducted by the IMF staff using this new framework. It focuses on the risks of a downturn in global growth and of further global commodity price shocks and discusses related policy challenges. Chapters review recent macroeconomic developments, including the spike in global commodity prices in early 2012; assess current risks and vulnerabilities, including how a sharp downturn in global growth and further commodity price shocks would affect low-income countries; and discuss policy challenges in the face of these risks and vulnerabilities.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; commodity price; IMF staff estimate; monetary policy; price shock; real interest rate; headline inflation; nominal exchange rate; fuel price; Inflation; Commodity prices; Food prices; Fiscal space; Commodity price shocks; Global; Asia and Pacific; Middle East and Central Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Middle East
Cover Departmental Papers
Toward New Horizons: Arab Economic Transformation amid Political Transition
Mr. Harald Finger
and
Ms. Daniela Gressani

The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.

Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; labor market; private sector; central bank; job creation; monetary policy; Exchange rate flexibility; Employment; Global; North Africa; East Asia; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Pan-African Banks: Opportunities and Challenges for Cross-Border Oversight
Mr. Charles Enoch
,
Mr. Paul Henri Mathieu
,
Mr. Mauro Mecagni
, and
Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
Pan-African banks are expanding rapidly across the continent, creating cross-border networks, and having a systemic presence in the banking sectors of many Sub-Saharan African countries. These banking groups are fostering financial development and economic integration, stimulating competition and efficiency, introducing product innovation and modern management and information systems, and bringing higher skills and expertise to host countries. At the same time, the rise of pan-African banks presents new challenges for regulators and supervisors. As networks expand, new channels for transmission of macro-financial risks and spillovers across home and host countries may emerge. To ensure that the gains from cross border banking are sustained and avoid raising financial stability risks, enhanced cross-border cooperation on regulatory and supervisory oversight is needed, in particular to support effective supervision on a consolidated basis. This paper takes stock of the development of pan-African banking groups; identifies regulatory, supervisory and resolution gaps; and suggests how the IMF can help the authorities address the related challenges.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; central bank; holding company; BNP Paribas; investment bank; commercial bank; financial crisis; banking sector; parent company; Foreign banks; Cross-border banking; Financial sector stability; Commercial banks; Basel II; Africa; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; East Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Macroeconomic Context
Mr. Montfort Mlachila
and
Mr. Masafumi Yabara
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have seen accelerated growth for an extended period of time since the mid-1990s, making a clear break with their long stagnant growth during the previous two decades. That said, the region faces significant challenges over the medium to long term, including reducing poverty, overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks, enhancing productivity and skill levels, and improving the business climate, among others. The banking sector remains underdeveloped in SSA, thus reducing its contribution to growth, although its limited integration with global financial markets helped countries weather adverse effects of the global financial crisis. It is imperative that the banking sector plays a more active role in SSA, in order to achieve sustainable growth led by the private sector. This paper, building on the recent literature on SSA, discusses the main features of the region’s growth and macroeconomic performance in recent years and the outlook for the coming years; it then reviews the main features of SSA banking systems and how they were affected by the global economic crisis, while flagging some factors that could influence financial sector developments in SSA in the period ahead.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; country; banking system; Sub-Saharan Africa; country authorities; debt relief; SSA banking systems; full-blown banking system crisis; global economy; public spending; common currency; monetary union; economic growth; exchange rate; banking systems in SSA; commodity price trend; Commercial banks; Financial sector development; Financial sector; Africa; Global; West Africa; East Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Paraguay: Haciendo frente a la trampa del estancamiento y la inestabilidad
Alejandro Santos
“Paraguay: Haciendo frente a la trampa del estancamiento y la inestabilidad” ofrece un panorama general de observaciones analíticas y presenta los retos de política económica que enfrentan los países en su camino hacia un crecimiento estable y firme. Abarca una diversidad de temas, entre otros la mejora de las evaluaciones macroeconómicas y la aplicación de políticas, la eliminación de las turbulencias y la profundización de las reformas financieras y, aún más importante, el aumento del crecimiento y la reducción de la pobreza. Este libro ofrece orientaciones útiles para las autoridades ya que analiza las mejoras en la aplicación de políticas en Paraguay a partir de la crisis regional de 2002. Este capítulo analiza cómo corregir los desequilibrios económicos y las deficiencias institucionales en el marco de un programa de reforma económica. Los resultados han sido notables: la economía paraguaya ha experimentado el crecimiento más alto del último cuarto de siglo y el sistema financiero ha mostrado la mayor solidez en décadas.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; central bank; U.S. dollar; output gap; real GDP
Cover Departmental Papers
South Africa: Macro Policy Mix and Its Effects on Growth and the Real Exchange Rate--Empirical Evidence and GIMF Simulations
Mr. Jorge I Canales Kriljenko
This paper examines whether a mix of tighter fiscal policy, looser monetary policy, and greater reserve build-up would increase growth and depreciate the rand in real terms. The experience of South Africa over the last twenty years is looked at using a number of econometric techniques that control for the external environment.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; exchange rate; terms of trade; countercyclical monetary policy; reaction function; output-gap coefficient; World output gaps; monetary policy reaction; currency appreciation; Real interest rates; Output gap; Real exchange rates; Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific