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  • genre: journal x
  • issn: 2616-5333 x
Cover Departmental Papers
Boom, Bust, or Prosperity? Managing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Wealth
Charlotte J. Lundgren
,
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
, and
Mr. Robert C York
Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; natural resource; SSA country; fiscal policy; current account; exchange rate; Natural resources; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Fiscal stance; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover Departmental Papers
Central America: Economic Progress and Reforms
Mr. Dominique Desruelle
and
Mr. Alfred Schipke
Central America has made substantial progress in recent years in moving economic reforms forward and deepening regional and global integration. As result of these efforts, the region has experienced higher growth, increased capital inflows, and some reductions in poverty rates. But Central America remains vulnerable to adverse shocks and continues to face widespread poverty. While today Central America is in better condition to face such shocks, the current turmoil in global financial markets and U.S. growth slowdown could put at risk the hard-won gains of recent years. Faced with these challenges, the authorities are monitoring developments closely and are taking precautionary measures, but they also need to continue implementing productivity-enhancing reforms and measures aimed at reducing income inequality and poverty.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; gross domestic product; financial market; value-added tax; Gini coefficient; tax burden; customs union; net importer; Income; Securities; Stock markets; Customs unions; Central America; Global; Baltics; Caribbean; Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Keywords:
CCA country; monetary policy; financial system; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; emerging market; natural resource; CCA IMF country team recommendation; banking sector; Financial sector; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Central Asia; East Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Eastern Europe; Er-CCA country; CCA economy; CCA government; foreign direct investment; Natural resources
Cover Departmental Papers
Economic Integration in the Maghreb: An Untapped Source of Growth
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Mr. Babacar Sarr
,
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Yufei Cai
, and
Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Maghreb country; Maghreb trade; export structure; factory Maghreb; growth potential; integration arrangement; private sector; Maghreb integration; trade policy; Exports; Regional integration; Comparative advantage; Trade integration; Trade policy; Maghreb; Global; Europe; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover Departmental Papers
Economic Integration in the Maghreb: An Untapped Source of Growth
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
,
Mr. Boaz Nandwa
,
Ms. Lorraine Ocampos
,
Mr. Babacar Sarr
,
Mr. Ramzy Al Amine
,
Mr. Allan G Auclair
,
Mr. Yufei Cai
, and
Mr. Jean-Francois Dauphin
Individual countries of the Maghreb have achieved substantial progress on trade, but, as a region they remain the least integrated in the world. The share of intraregional trade is less than 5 percent of their total trade, substantially lower than in all other regional trading blocs around the world. Geopolitical considerations and restrictive economic policies have stifled regional integration. Economic policies have been guided by country-level considerations, with little attention to the region, and are not coordinated. Restrictions on trade and capital flows remain substantial and constrain regional integration for the private sector.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Maghreb country; Maghreb trade; export structure; factory Maghreb; growth potential
Cover Departmental Papers
Coping with the Global Financial Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries
Ms. Stefania Fabrizio
This forthcoming title in the Departmental Paper Series describes the special challenges facing low-income countries as economic growth contracts by an estimated 1.1 percent globally. Coping with the Crisis: Challenges Facing Low-Income Countries provides an assessment of the implications of the financial crisis for low-income countries, evaluates the short-term macroeconomic outlook for these countries, and discusses the policy challenges they face. Chapters cover the outlook for global economic growth and commodity prices, an overview of how low-income countries have been affected, fiscal policy, monetary and exchange rate policy responses, potential external financing needs and how the international community, including the IMF, can help countries meet them. The challenges ahead for low-income countries are delineated, including debt vulnerabilities and the need for countries to develop well-regulated local capital markets and banking systems, as well as enhanced public sector efficiency.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Low-income country; financing; debt; fund; financial support; debt distress; foreign direct investment; burden indicator; headline inflation; debt vulnerability; economic growth; targeted financing needs; distress rating; Debt sustainability; Debt sustainability analysis; Commodity prices; Debt burden; Foreign direct investment; Global; Sub-Saharan Africa; Asia and Pacific; Middle East; Western Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
América Central: Progreso económico y reformas
Mr. Dominique Desruelle
and
Mr. Alfred Schipke
América Central ha logrado importantes avances en los últimos años al impulsar reformas económicas y profundizar la integración regional y mundial. Como resultado de estos esfuerzos, la región ha logrado aumentar el crecimiento y las entradas de capitales y reducir en alguna medida las tasas de pobreza. No obstante, América Central se mantiene vulnerable a los shocks negativos y continúa atravesando una situación de pobreza generalizada. Si bien hoy en día América Central se encuentra en mejores condiciones para afrontar esos shocks, las turbulencias actuales en los mercados financieros internacionales podrían poner en riesgo los avances logrados con tanto esfuerzo en los últimos años. Frente a estos retos, las autoridades están siguiendo de cerca los acontecimientos y tomando medidas precautorias, pero también deben seguir realizando reformas que promuevan la productividad y aplicando medidas dirigidas a reducir la desigualdad del ingreso y la pobreza.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; gross domestic product; financial market; value-added tax; Gini coefficient
Cover Departmental Papers
Is South Africa Receiving More than Its Fair Share of Portfolio Flows?
Mr. Gavin Gray
and
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
This paper develops an empirical model of the drivers of portfolio flows, and concludes that South Africa has indeed received greater bond flows than can be explained by macroeconomic fundamentals. Bond flows in the four quarters through 2010:Q3 not only exceeded the average over the past 10 years, but also deviated significantly from the amount implied by explanatory variables, including the fiscal balance, the difference between the country's and world GDP growth rates and a summary indicator of external vulnerabilities. Some capital market factors specific to South Africa irrelevant to macro variables, such as size of capital market, which are reflected in remarkably high fixed effect compared to other emerging countries, have contributed to attracting equity flow.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; growth rate; flow share; GDP; world GDP; flow-to-GDP ratio; volatility series; index number; GDP dispersion; bond share; flows-to-GDP ratio; Stocks; Bonds; Exchange rates; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Inflation; Africa; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) have recorded significant macroeconomic achievements since independence. These countries have grown more rapidly-—on average by 7 percent over 1996–2011—-than those in many other regions of the world and poverty has declined. Inflation has come down sharply from high rates in the 1990s and interest rates have fallen. Financial sectors have deepened somewhat, as evidenced by higher deposits and lending. Fiscal policies were broadly successful in building buffers prior to the global crisis and those buffers were used effectively by many CCA countries to support growth and protect the most vulnerable as the crisis washed across the region. CCA oil and gas exporters have achieved significant improvements in living standards with the use of their energy wealth.
Keywords:
CCA country; monetary policy; financial system; exchange rate; transmission mechanism; emerging market; natural resource; CCA IMF country team recommendation; banking sector; Financial sector; Infrastructure; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Global; Central Asia; East Asia; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Eastern Europe
Cover Departmental Papers
Boom, Bust or Prosperity? Managing Sub-Saharan Africa’s Natural Resource Wealth
Charlotte J. Lundgren
,
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
, and
Mr. Robert C York
Sizeable natural resource endowments and potentially large financial inflows from their extraction provide an unparalleled opportunity for economic growth and development in a growing number of sub-Saharan African countries. Empirical evidence suggests, however, that translating this resource wealth into stronger economic performance and a higher standard of living has proven challenging. Much has been written about the resource curse. This publication focuses on solutions to the challenges and outlines the main policy considerations and options in managing natural resource wealth, drawing on experience within and outside sub-Saharan Africa and referring closely to the latest analysis and policy advice in this area by the IMF, the World Bank, and leading academic research. A key feature of each chapter is a recommended reading list for those who wish additional, more in-depth material on these issues to further inform policymakers and other stakeholders on the theoretical and analytical underpinnings of the policy advice.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; natural resource; SSA country; fiscal policy; current account; exchange rate