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Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty

Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty »

Source: Optimal Fiscal Adjustment under Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2016/69

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rossen Rozenov

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 17 March 2016

ISBN: 9781475521795

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, decisions theory, uncertainty, minimax

The paper offers a non-probabilistic framework for representation of uncertainty in the context of a simple linear-quadratic model of fiscal adjustment. Instead of treating model disturbances as random variables wi...

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy »

Source: The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy

Volume/Issue: 2013/66

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Stephanie Denis , and Prakash Kannan

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 08 March 2013

ISBN: 9781475552690

Keywords: Uncertainty, industrial production, unemployment, recession, unemployment rate, General, GBR,

This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, d...

Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Bank Capital and Uncertainty »

Source: Bank Capital and Uncertainty

Volume/Issue: 2010/208

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Fabian Valencia

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 September 2010

ISBN: 9781455205394

Keywords: Banking Capital, Risk, Uncertainty, bank capital, equation, statistics, independent variables,

An important role for bank capital is that of a buffer against unexpected losses. As uncertainty about these losses increases, the theory predicts an increase in the optimal level of bank capital. This paper invest...

Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data? »

Source: Why is Micro Evidenceon the Effects of Uncertainty Not Replicated in Macro Data?

Volume/Issue: 2005/158

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Domenico Lombardi , and Stephen Bond

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 August 2005

ISBN: 9781451861778

Keywords: Aggregation, Uncertainty, equation, capital stock, equations, correlation, linear trend, Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

This study investigates the relationship between uncertainty and investment using U.K. data at different levels of aggregation. Motivated by a comparative econometric analysis using a firm-level panel and aggregate...

Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area1

Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area1 »

Source: Trade Uncertainty and Investment in the Euro Area

Volume/Issue: 2018/281

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Christian Ebeke , and Jesse Siminitz

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 11 December 2018

ISBN: 9781484388808

Keywords: Investment, Euro Area, trade tensions, uncertainty, trade openness, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

We analyze the impact of trade policy uncertainty on investment in the euro area. Our identification strategy assumes that countries that are relatively more dependent on global trade networks exhibit a higher sens...

Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown1

Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown1 »

Source: Disentangling India's Investment Slowdown

Volume/Issue: 2014/47

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Rahul Anand , and Volodymyr Tulin

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 24 March 2014

ISBN: 9781475531183

Keywords: Investments, Policy Uncertainty, inflation, real interest rate, real interest rates, monetary policy, monetary fund, General, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as busin...

Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership

Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership »

Source: Imf Conditionality and Program Ownership : A Case for Streamlined Conditionality

Volume/Issue: 2003/98

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 May 2003

ISBN: 9781451852165

Keywords: program conditionality and ownership, uncertainty, ambiguity, probability, conditionality, probabilities, adjustment programs, Positive Analysis of Policy-Making and Implementation, Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty,

Program conditionality and ownership are important considerations in the IMF's current rethinking of program design. This paper contributes to the literature by developing a theory of program conditionality and own...

To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data

To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data »

Source: To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data

Volume/Issue: 2004/104

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Domenico Lombardi , and Stephen Bond

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 June 2004

ISBN: 9781451948011

Keywords: Real Options, Panel Data, capital stock, survey, equations, measure of uncertainty, cost of capital, Intertemporal Firm Choice and Growth, Investment, or Financing

This study tests for the presence of real options effects induced by uncertainty and (partial) irreversibility on fixed capital investment using Italian company data. The approach recognizes that firm-level investm...

Institutional Quality, Knightian Uncertainty, and Insurability

Institutional Quality, Knightian Uncertainty, and Insurability »

Source: Institutional Quality, Knightian Uncertainty, and Insurability : A Cross-Country Analysis

Volume/Issue: 2006/179

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): S. Erbas , and Chera Sayers

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 01 July 2006

ISBN: 9781451864397

Keywords: Institutional Quality, Knightian Uncertainty, Insurability, non-life insurance, life insurance, insurance markets, insurance coverage, Comparative Studies of Countries, Information And Uncertainty,

Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) implies presence of uninsurable risks. Institutional quality may be a good indicator of Knightian uncertainty. This paper correlates non-life insurance penetration in 70 countries...

Uncertainty and Unemployment

Uncertainty and Unemployment »

Source: Uncertainty and Unemployment : The Effects of Aggregate and Sectoral Channels

Volume/Issue: 2015/36

Series: IMF Working Papers

Author(s): Sangyup Choi , and Prakash Loungani

Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

Publication Date: 23 February 2015

ISBN: 9781498356305

Keywords: aggregate uncertainty, sectoral uncertainty, stock market, Great Recession, unemployment rate, labor, labor market, long-term unemployment, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy,

We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we...