World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025
Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain

Abstract

Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast with an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions elsewhere. The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths, while medium-term risks to growth are tilted to the downside. Renewed inflationary pressures could interrupt the monetary policy pivot, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. The policy mix should balance trade-offs and rebuild buffers.

Author:
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
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