Title Page
World Economic and Financial Surveys
Regional Economic Outlook
Western Hemisphere
Navigating Tighter Global Financial Conditions
OCT 22
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Copyright Page
©2022 International Monetary Fund
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: International Monetary Fund, publisher.
Title: Regional economic outlook. Western Hemisphere : Navigating tighter global financial conditions.
Other titles: Western Hemisphere : Navigating tighter global financial conditions. | Navigating tighter global financial conditions. | World economic and financial surveys.
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2022. | World economic and financial surveys. | Oct. 2022. | Includes bibliographical references.
Identifiers: 9798400220968 (paper)
9798400221002 (ePub)
9798400221026 (Web PDF)
Subjects: LCSH: Economic forecasting—Western Hemisphere. | Economic development— Western Hemisphere. | Western Hemisphere—Economic conditions.
Classification: LCC HC95.R445 2022
The Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere is published to review developments in the United States, Canada, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF Management.
Please send orders to:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.
Tel.: (202) 623–7430 Fax: (202) 623–7201
Contents
Preface
US Outlook and Policies
Canada Outlook and Policies
Latin America and the Caribbean Outlook and Policies
Recent Developments
Regional Outlook
Weakening Short-Term Growth
Persistent Inflation
Pandemic Scarring
Risks to the Outlook
External Risks
Regional and Domestic Risks
Policy Recommendations
Short-Term Priorities
Medium-Term Policies
Box 1. Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic: Country Focus
Box 2. The Caribbean: Uneven Recovery with Downside Risks
Box 3. Latin America 5 and Other South American Economies: Country Focus
Annex 1. Spillovers of US Monetary Tightening to Latin America
Annex 2. The Inflation Surge: Policy Trade-offs amid Uncertainty
Annex 3. Productivity in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recent Trends and the COVID-19 Shock
Annex 4. Remittances and Digitalization
Annex 5. Risks Associated with the Nonbank Financial Sector in Latin America and the Caribbean
Annex 6. Country Notes
Appendix Table 1. Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators
Appendix Table 2. Western Hemisphere: Main Fiscal Indicators
References
Country Groups and Country Abbreviations
Preface
The October 2022 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere was prepared by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea with contributions from Maximiliano Appendino, Isabela Duarte, Chao He, Takuji Komatsuzaki, and Samuel Pienknagura, under the supervision of Anna Ivanova and the guidance of Gustavo Adler, with the overall direction of Ilan Goldfajn and James Morsink. Genevieve Lindow provided outstanding support and coordinated the excellent research assistance work of Evelyn Carbajal, Erdem Dorjkhand, Kenji Moreno, and Gabriel Moura Queiroz. Contributions for boxes and country focus were provided by country teams and coordinated by Metodij Hadzi-Vaskov, Andrew Edward Hodge, Lucy Qian Liu, Adam Siddiq, Bert van Selm, and Joyce Wong. Annexes 4 and 5 were prepared by Yorbol Yakhshilikov and Yuanchen Yang, respectively. The report includes content from three background papers—available online at http://www.IMF.org/Americas —that benefited from the guidance of Jorge Roldós in the initial stagesprepared by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea, Maximiliano Appendino, Isabela Duarte, Chao He, Takuji Komatsuzaki, Samuel Pienknagura, and Yuanchen Yang. Astrid Baigorria, Rafael Machado Parente, Flavien Moreau, Hyunmin Park, Ana Sofa Pires Mendes Abranches Pessoa, Rafael Portillo, Aneta Radzikowski, and Pedro Rodriguez provided production support. The report also benefited from the coordination of editing and production by Cheryl Toksoz, from the Communications Department. Translations to other languages (Spanish and Portuguese) were led by Virginia Masoller, Vanesa Demko, Eric Fernandes Macedo, and Carlos Viel. This report reflects developments and staff projections through September 26, 2022.