Abstract

PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Title Page

PROMOTING INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA

Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World

Editors

ROBERTO CARDARELLI MERCEDES VERA MARTIN SUBIR LALL

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© 2022 International Monetary Fund

Cover design: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division

Cover photo: UN Women/Emad Karim

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

IMF Library

Names: Cardarelli, R. (Roberto), editor. | Vera-Martin, Mercedes, editor. | Lall, Subir, editor. | International Monetary Fund, publisher.

Title: Promoting inclusive growth in the Middle East and North Africa : challenges and opportunities in a post-pandemic world / Editors Roberto Cardarelli, Mercedes Vera Martin, and Subir Lall.

Other titles: Challenges and opportunities in a post-pandemic world.

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2022. | “This book is part of the preparatory work for the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings that are scheduled to take place in Marrakech in October 2023.” | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 9798400200038 (paper) | 9798400208874 (PDF) |9798400208836 (ePub)

Subjects: LCSH: Middle East — Economic conditions. | Africa, North — Economic conditions. | Labor market — Middle East. | Labor market — Africa, North.

Classification: LCC HC415.15.P7 2022

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this book are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors, its management, or any of its members. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. All information presented herein is accurate as of press date.

Recommended citation: Cardarelli, Roberto, Mercedes Vera Martin, and Subir Lall, eds. 2022. Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

ISBN: 979-8-40020-003-8 (paper)

979-8-40020-883-6 (ePub)

979-8-40020-887-4 (PDF)

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Contents

  • Foreword

  • Acknowledgments

  • Contributors

  • Abbreviations

  • Introduction

  • Roberto Cardarelli • Mercedes Vera Martin • Subir Lall

  • 1. Defining and Measuring Inclusive Growth in the MENA Region

  • Aidyn Bibolov • Yang Yang • Jiayi ma

  • 2. Inclusiveness, Growth, and Stability

  • Chiara Maggi • Xin Tang

  • 3. Fostering Private-Sector-Led Growth in the MENA Region: A New Role for the State

  • Suchanan Tambunlertchai • Monica Petrescu • Mahdi Ansari

  • 4. The Changing Nature of Work: Improving the Functioning of Labor Markets

  • Sidra Rehman • Agustin Velasquez

  • 5. Addressing Gender Gaps in MENA Labor Markets

  • Hippolyte Dalima • Diego Gomes

  • 6. Improving Human Capital in the MENAP Region through Adequate and Efficient Social Spending

  • Anastasia Guscina

  • 7. Financial Inclusion

  • Anta Ndoye • Adolfo Barajas

  • 8. Moving from Aspiration to Action on Climate Adaptation

  • Gareth Anderson

  • Index

Foreword

As we look ahead to the 2023 World Bank-International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings in Marrakesh, this occasion will be an important milestone for the IMF, Morocco, and the whole Middle East and North Africa region. Thousands of people representing IMF member country authorities and global and regional policymakers, civil society organizations, media, students, and IMF and World Bank staff will gather together, marking a renewed commitment by the IMF to its partnership with countries and people in the region. Working together we can seek to build on the progress achieved during the past few decades in improving the standards of living of their citizens, and work toward a future grounded in a more equal and inclusive model of development.

Ten years after the Arab Spring, the need to ensure more and fairer opportunities for all—and, in particular, opportunities for young people, women, and entrepreneurs—remains a key priority for MENA countries. Demographic changes, evolving climate conditions, the impact of automation and artificial intelligence in job markets, all pose new challenges to the longstanding issues of high unemployment and deep inequalities in the region.

This book, Promoting Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and North Africa: Challenges and Opportunities in a Post-Pandemic World, leverages recent IMF research to assess the promise of various approaches for addressing these old and new challenges— reducing gender inequalities, improving access to social protection systems and financial services, adapting to climate change and developing greener economies, fostering new economic opportunities for the private sector, and harnessing the benefits of fast-paced transformations in the nature of work.

The region now faces significant challenges from the economic shockwaves from the war in Ukraine, and this comes on top of having to deal with the persistent effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is imperative that we work together—through sound policies and strong partnerships—to overcome these challenges and ensure they do not derail the region’s quest for a more inclusive model of development. In fact, it is even more essential that MENA economies remain committed to the reforms that will yield more resilient economies while opening opportunities to every individual to fulfill their potential and realize their aspirations.

The analyses and policy recommendations in this book aim to serve as background for discussions on the priorities for economic and social reforms in MENA economies, while offering a pathway for the IMF and other global partners to come together and accompany the region in the quest for a more prosperous future for all its citizens.

Kristalina Georgieva

Managing Director

International Monetary Fund

Acknowledgments

This book is part of the preparatory work for the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings that are scheduled to take place in Marrakesh in October 2023. Its chapters are the result of collaboration across a number of departments at the IMF and have benefited from inputs and suggestions of many people at the Fund. We are particularly grateful to Jihad Azour for his guidance, and to Valerie Cerra, Martin Schindler, Asmaa ElGanainy, Stefania Fabrizio, Pelin Berkmen, Yasser Abdih, and Chris Duenwald for their assistance at different stages of the project. We also thank Joe Procopio and Lorraine Coffey of the IMF’s Communications Department for their excellent work managing all aspects of the production of this book, and Six Red Marbles for copyediting, proofreading, and typesetting.

Contributors

Editors

Roberto Cardarelli is Assistant Director in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF, and mission chief for Morocco. Within the IMF he has held positions in the Western Hemisphere Department, where he was chief of the North America Division and the Southern Cone II Division, and mission chief for Canada, Chile, and Argentina; in the Asia and Pacific Department, where he was chief of the Regional Studies Division; and in the Research Department, where he worked on the World Economic Outlook. He is an Italian national, and holds a PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge, UK.

Subir Lall is Deputy Director in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF. He has been the IMF mission chief for Egypt, Portugal, Germany, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Korea, and Malaysia, and Deputy Division Chief (in charge) of the World Economic Studies Division. His country experience has been in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia, and Western Hemisphere economies, and he has been a co-author of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the Global Financial Stability Report. His research interests and publications are in the areas of financial systems and crises, speculative attacks, contagion, financial market microstructure, income inequality, and the impact of technological change on the economy. He served on the Academic Advisory Panel of the World Economic Forum’s Financial Development Report. He has a BA (first class with Honors) in economics from the University of Delhi and a PhD in economics from Brown University, where he was the recipient of the Susan B. Kamins Fellowship.

Mercedes Vera Martin, a Spanish national, is currently an advisor at the IMF’s African Department. She has overseen the Fund’s engagement with the Democratic Republic of the Congo since July 2021. Prior to that, she led engagement with Georgia and the Islamic Republic of Mauritania. She has worked on policies to promote inclusive growth in the Middle East and Central Asia regions, including those to create jobs for women and youth. Along her career, she has worked on multilateral and regional issues, including vulnerabilities in emerging market economies, the challenges of dollarization, development of domestic capital markets, resource wealth management, and macroprudential policies. She has a BSc in economics and business administration and a BSc in law as well as an MSc and PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.

Authors

Gareth Anderson is an economist in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF. He joined the IMF in 2018 and previously worked in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department on topics related to the international monetary system. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked in the Monetary Analysis and Financial Stability Strategy and Risk Directorates at the Bank of England. His research focuses on the economic implications of countries’ climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, and the macroeconomic implications of financing constraints faced by companies. He received his DPhil in economics from the University of Oxford.

Mahdi Ansari is a PhD candidate in economics at the University of Minnesota. His research focuses on macroeconomics and firm dynamics. Previously, he worked as a summer intern at the IMF and as a research analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. He has also taught some courses in economics at the University of Minnesota.

Shant Arzoumanian is a research analyst in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF. He holds a BA in political science and economics from Lafayette College. His work involves macroeconomic research and analysis in support of countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia region. He has contributed to projects on informal sector dynamics, financial inclusion, governance, and fiscal risk.

Hippolyte W. Balima is an economist in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Before joining the IMF, he worked in the World Bank’s Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice. Hippolyte has published in top academic journals, including the Journal of Development Economics, European Economic Review, and IMF Economic Review, and has contributed to various IMF policy publications.

Adolfo Barajas is a senior economist in the Inclusive Growth and Structural Policies Division of the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development, where he leads training and research projects on inclusive growth issues. He holds a PhD from Stanford University and worked previously in the Monetary and Capital Markets Department, leading chapters of the Global Financial Stability Report. He also has prior experience at the Colombian Central Bank and at Fedesarrollo, a Colombian private think tank. He has published on international finance, macroeconomics, banking, and financial development and inclusion.

Aidyn Bibolov is a senior economist in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. He worked on countries in Europe and Asia as IMF resident representative, technical assistance mission chief, and a member of a Financial Sector Assessment Program team. Prior to that he worked in banking and auditing, and taught at leading universities in Kazakhstan. He has published research on banking, monetary and fiscal policies, and development finance. He holds a PhD from Boc-coni University and an MBA from Binghamton University.

Diego B. P. Gomes is an economist in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF. Before joining the Fund, Diego worked as a professor at the Alberta School of Business, University of Alberta, and in the hedge fund and management consulting industries.

Anastasia Guscina is Deputy Division Chief of the Southern Division in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF. Prior to that she worked in the Middle East and Central Asia Department, where she led analytical work on social spending. She holds a PhD in economics from the George Washington University.

Jiayi Ma is a research analyst in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF. She holds an MA in international economics and international development from the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. Her work encompasses research and analysis to support macroeconomic surveillance of a few MENA countries. She is also extensively involved in regional research projects.

Chiara Maggi is an economist for the Morocco desk in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Before that, she worked as an economist in the IMF’s Research Department, where she authored work on labor markets, firm dynamics, and corporate market power. She holds a PhD in economics from Northwestern University.

Anta Ndoye is the Resident Representative for Mauritania in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. She worked previously as an economist on Saudi Arabia and Morocco, where she worked on several research projects on inclusive growth and financial inclusion. She also has experience as an advisor to the Ministry of Economy of Senegal and at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank.

Monica Petrescu is an economist in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. Her research focuses on macro-finance, financial markets, and firm dynamics. Prior to joining the IMF, Monica worked in financial regulation at the European Central Bank, and on competition cases at a London-based economic consulting firm.

Sidra Rehman is an economist in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, where her responsibilities include country assignments on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Yemen, and Djibouti as well as analytical areas relating to debt, climate change, fragile states, and inclusive growth. Previously, she worked in the IMF’s Research Department and the Asia Pacific Department, where her focus was on structural reforms, trade, and the impact of automation. Before joining the Fund, Sidra worked at the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. Her main research interests lie in development economics with a focus on growth, trade, and human capital issues. She holds a PhD and an MPA from Columbia University, and a BSc from Lahore University of Management Sciences.

Suchanan Tambunlertchai is a senior economist in the Middle East and Central Asia Department of the IMF. In addition to inclusive growth policy issues, her research has covered a broad range of topics, including corporate market power, fiscal and debt sustainability, international competitiveness, and labor market rigidities. She holds a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago and an AB in economics from Harvard University.

Xin Tang is an economist in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the IMF. He joined the IMF in 2017 and has been working in the inequality workstream since then. He has provided technical assistance to area departments in surveillance work, advanced the research agenda on inclusive growth, and conducted internal training. His main areas of expertise are economic development and fiscal policy. His research has been published in leading academic journals, including PNAS and American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics. Prior to joining the Fund, he worked as assistant professor at Wuhan University (China) and Gettysburg College. He holds a PhD in economics from Stony Brook University.

Agustin Velasquez is an economist at the Concessional Financing Division of the IMF’s Finance Department. Previously, he was a desk economist for Bahrain in the Middle East and Central Asia Department, and a PhD intern in the European Department. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked at the Employment Policy Department of the International Labour Organization. In his previous roles, he covered topics related to structural reforms, labor market institutions, and the impact of international trade on labor market outcomes. He holds a PhD and an MA in international economics from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, an MSc in applied labor economics for development (University of Torino and Sciences Po), and a BA in economics from the University of Buenos Aires.

Yang Yang is an economist in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department. He has worked on various macroeconomic issues in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa and produced research on the global oil market, fiscal policy, financial markets, and structural reforms. He holds a PhD from UCLA and has work experience at the World Bank, Pepperdine University, and Goldman Sachs.

Abbreviations

AEs

advanced economies

AI

artificial intelligence

AIC

Akaike Information Criteria

ATMs

automated teller machines

BIC

Bayesian Information Criteria

CA

Central Asia

CCA

Caucasus and Central Asia

EDA

Emerging and Developing Asia

EDE

Emerging and Developing Europe

EMDE

emerging market and developing economies

EME

emerging market economies

EMs

emerging markets

GCC

Gulf Cooperation Council

GGGI

Global Gender Gap Index

GMM

Generalized Method of Moments

HDI

Human Development Index

HHI

Herfndahl-Hirschman Index

HICs

high-income countries

ICT

information and communication technology

LAC

Latin America and the Caribbean

LICs

low-income countries

LIDCD

low-income developing countries

LFP

labor force participation

LFPR

labor force participation rate

MENA

Middle East and North Africa

MENAP

Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan

MICs

middle-income countries

NAP

National Adaptation Plan

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

PPP

purchasing power parity

RoW

rest of the world

SMEs

small and medium enterprises

SME FI

small and medium enterprise financial institutions

SOBs

state-owned banks

SOEs

state-owned enterprises

SSA

sub-Saharan Africa

UAE

United Arab Emirates

UNFCCC

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

WBES

World Bank Enterprise Survey

WBL

Women, Business and the Law database

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