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Valerio Crispolti; Era Dabla-Norris; Jun I Kim; Kazuko Shirono; George C. Tsibouris

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Author:

Mr. Valerio Crispolti

Mr. Valerio Crispolti
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Ms. Era Dabla-Norris

Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
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Mr. Jun I Kim

Mr. Jun I Kim
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Ms. Kazuko Shirono

Ms. Kazuko Shirono
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2325-1075

, and

Mr. George C. Tsibouris

Mr. George C. Tsibouris
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Language:: English

Keywords:: OP; external shock; reserve; IMF staff calculation; cost

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Abstract

The event study analysis is based on a panel of 71 LICs (Table A1.1). The sample period spans from 1980 to 2007 for the analysis of past shock episodes and from 2007 to 2010 for the impact of the current global financial crisis. The data used for the event study analysis (1980–2007) mainly come from the April 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, with a few exceptions that are documented below (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm). For the period from 2007–10 the data were updated with the September 2011 WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx). To reduce the number of missing observations, historical data on per capita consumption were reconstructed using growth rates from the Penn World Tables (version 6.3); (http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt63/pwt63_form.php).

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis

The event study analysis is based on a panel of 71 LICs (Table A1.1). The sample period spans from 1980 to 2007 for the analysis of past shock episodes and from 2007 to 2010 for the impact of the current global financial crisis. The data used for the event study analysis (1980–2007) mainly come from the April 2010 World Economic Outlook (WEO) database, with a few exceptions that are documented below (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/index.htm). For the period from 2007–10 the data were updated with the September 2011 WEO (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/weodata/index.aspx). To reduce the number of missing observations, historical data on per capita consumption were reconstructed using growth rates from the Penn World Tables (version 6.3); (http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/php_site/pwt63/pwt63_form.php).

^{Table A1.1.}

List of Countries and Structural Characteristics of the Economy

Source: IMF staff calculations.

^¹As defined by the April 2010 World Economic Outlook.

^²Countries that on average had a share of commodity imports to total merchandise imports exceeding 40 percent over the sample period.

^³Countries that on average had a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50 percent over the sample period.

^{Table A1.1.}

List of Countries and Structural Characteristics of the Economy

Country	Islands	Commodity exporters¹	Oil exporters¹	Commodity importers²	Heavily-indebted³
Afghanistan				X	X
Armenia					X
Bangladesh
Benin				X	X
Bhutan				X	X
Bolivia					X
Burkina Faso		X		X
Burundi		X			X
Cambodia					X
Cameroon				X	X
Cape Verde	X				X
Central African Republic					X
Chad			X	X	X
Comoros	X			X	X
Congo, Dem. Rep. of		X		X	X
Congo, Rep.			X	X	X
Côte d’Ivoire					X
Djibouti					X
Dominica	X				X
Eritrea				X	X
Ethiopia
Gambia, The					X
Georgia					X
Ghana					X
Grenada	X				X
Guinea		X			X
Guinea-Bissau		X			X
Guyana		X			X
Haiti	X				X
Honduras					X
Kenya					X
Kiribati	X			X	X
Kyrgyz Republic					X
Lao PDR				X	X
Lesotho					X
Liberia					X
Madagascar	X				X
Malawi		X			X
Maldives	X				X
Mali		X			X
Mauritania		X		X	X
Moldova					X
Mongolia		X			X
Mozambique		X			X
Myanmar					X
Nepal
Nicaragua					X
Niger					X
Nigeria			X	X	X
Papua New Guinea	X	X			X
Rwanda
São Tomé & Principe	X				X
Samoa	X				X
Senegal					X
Sierra Leone		X			X
Solomon Islands	X	X		X	X
St. Lucia	X				X
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	X				X
Sudan			X	X	X
Tajikistan				X	X
Tanzania					X
Timor-Leste	X		X	X	X
Togo					X
Tonga	X				X
Uganda
Uzbekistan		X		X
Vanuatu	X				X
Vietnam					X
Yemen, Rep.			X	X	X
Zambia		X			X
Zimbabwe		X			X

Source: IMF staff calculations.

^¹As defined by the April 2010 World Economic Outlook.

^²Countries that on average had a share of commodity imports to total merchandise imports exceeding 40 percent over the sample period.

^³Countries that on average had a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50 percent over the sample period.

^{Table A1.1.}

List of Countries and Structural Characteristics of the Economy

Country	Islands	Commodity exporters¹	Oil exporters¹	Commodity importers²	Heavily-indebted³
Afghanistan				X	X
Armenia					X
Bangladesh
Benin				X	X
Bhutan				X	X
Bolivia					X
Burkina Faso		X		X
Burundi		X			X
Cambodia					X
Cameroon				X	X
Cape Verde	X				X
Central African Republic					X
Chad			X	X	X
Comoros	X			X	X
Congo, Dem. Rep. of		X		X	X
Congo, Rep.			X	X	X
Côte d’Ivoire					X
Djibouti					X
Dominica	X				X
Eritrea				X	X
Ethiopia
Gambia, The					X
Georgia					X
Ghana					X
Grenada	X				X
Guinea		X			X
Guinea-Bissau		X			X
Guyana		X			X
Haiti	X				X
Honduras					X
Kenya					X
Kiribati	X			X	X
Kyrgyz Republic					X
Lao PDR				X	X
Lesotho					X
Liberia					X
Madagascar	X				X
Malawi		X			X
Maldives	X				X
Mali		X			X
Mauritania		X		X	X
Moldova					X
Mongolia		X			X
Mozambique		X			X
Myanmar					X
Nepal
Nicaragua					X
Niger					X
Nigeria			X	X	X
Papua New Guinea	X	X			X
Rwanda
São Tomé & Principe	X				X
Samoa	X				X
Senegal					X
Sierra Leone		X			X
Solomon Islands	X	X		X	X
St. Lucia	X				X
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	X				X
Sudan			X	X	X
Tajikistan				X	X
Tanzania					X
Timor-Leste	X		X	X	X
Togo					X
Tonga	X				X
Uganda
Uzbekistan		X		X
Vanuatu	X				X
Vietnam					X
Yemen, Rep.			X	X	X
Zambia		X			X
Zimbabwe		X			X

Source: IMF staff calculations.

^¹As defined by the April 2010 World Economic Outlook.

^²Countries that on average had a share of commodity imports to total merchandise imports exceeding 40 percent over the sample period.

^³Countries that on average had a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50 percent over the sample period.

Shock Variables

Aid flows are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars and exclude debt relief. Data are available from the OECD. Stat database at http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx.

A climatic event involves extreme temperature, drought, or wildfire as defined by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. It must meet at least one of the following criteria: (1) 10 or more people reported killed, (2) 100 or more people reported affected, (3) a declaration of a state of emergency, (4) or a call for international assistance. Data are available through the International Disaster Database (http://www.emdat.be/database).

External-demand conditions are proxied with real GDP growth in trading partners as reported in the April 2010 Global Economic Environment database (IMF internal database).

FDI inflows are expressed in millions of U.S. dollars and taken from the April 2010 WEO database.

The terms-of-trade index is for goods only and comes from the April 2010 WEO database.

Economic Variables

The dummy for the exchange rate regime is based on Ghosh, Gulde, and Wolf (2002) and updated with the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) database.

The series capturing the presence of a financial program with the IMF comes from Dreher (2006) and is updated with the Monitoring of Fund Arrangements (MONA) database, at http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/mona/index.aspx.

External variables (such as current account, imports, and stock of international reserves) are expressed in billions of U.S. dollars and come from the April 2010 WEO for the period 1980–2007 and from the September 2011 WEO for the analysis on the global financial crisis.

Domestic variables, such as real GDP growth, real per capita consumption growth, real per capita investment, real per capita absorption, and overall fiscal balance, are also taken from the April 2010 and September 2011 WEO database. The overall fiscal balance variable is expressed in millions of national currency.

The data on the debt-to-GDP ratios come from Lane and Milesi-Ferretti’s database (2007) and are available at http://www.philiplane.org/EWN.html. Summary statistics on the variables used are provided in Table A2.3.

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis

This appendix provides a robustness check for the event study analysis using alternative definitions of shocks and related losses. In particular, shocks were redefined in terms of a different threshold (i.e. 25th percentile) to capture a broader range of events and still control for heterogeneity among LICs, and a different distribution (i.e., whole sample) to abstract from a country’s specific circumstances while maintaining the focus on rare events. Furthermore, costs associated with shocks were recomputed, differentiating between “closed” and “open” events in each country to assess whether permanent factors might bias the analysis. A “closed” event is defined as a situation in which a country’s “shock” growth index catches up with its “no-shock” index within the sample period. By contrast, an “open” event (corresponding to some notion of permanence) is identified by a case in which the “shock” index is consistently above or below the “no-shock” index.

The results based on the 25th percentile threshold confirm previous findings.¹ Compared to the analysis based on the 10th percentile threshold, shock episodes were more frequent and had a smaller size, but their relative importance did not change significantly (Table A2.1). Furthermore, the role of international reserves in buffering domestic economic activity was broadly confirmed, although the magnitude and duration of costs somewhat differed from the previous analysis (Figure A2.1). In particular, countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports prior to the shock event did not experience any loss in terms of forgone GDP growth after an external demand shock. Similarly, countries with higher reserve buffers suffered lower consumption losses under all shocks, particularly terms-of-trade shocks.

^{Table A2.1.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (25th percentile)

(Average values)

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

^{Table A2.1.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (25th percentile)

(Average values)

	Frequency		Size
Shocks	episodes	in % of country observations	in % change	in std. deviations
External demand	216	11.9	2.0	–1.05
Terms of trade	250	15.2	–20.3	–1.19
FDI	198	20.2	–2.5¹	–1.04
Climatic conditions	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Aid	281	15.8	–4.0¹	–0.92

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

^{Table A2.1.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (25th percentile)

(Average values)

	Frequency		Size
Shocks	episodes	in % of country observations	in % change	in std. deviations
External demand	216	11.9	2.0	–1.05
Terms of trade	250	15.2	–20.3	–1.19
FDI	198	20.2	–2.5¹	–1.04
Climatic conditions	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Aid	281	15.8	–4.0¹	–0.92

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

Looking at shock episodes for the entire sample distribution did not alter the results.² In this case, shocks were less frequent but larger in size, reflecting the fact that the bottom 10th percentile of the whole-sample distribution comprises events that are generally larger than those falling below the bottom 10th percentile of country-specific distributions (Table A2.2). Results based on this approach were broadly in line with the previous analysis, including the potential role of reserves as a buffer against external shocks. Except for shocks to FDI flows, costs in terms of GDP growth were insignificant for countries with reserve coverage above three months of imports prior to the shock event (Figure A2.2). Likewise, economies with reserves of more than three months of imports were better able to smooth consumption in the aftermath of shocks.

^{Table A2.2.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (Whole-Sample Distribution)

(Average values)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

^{Table A2.2.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (Whole-Sample Distribution)

(Average values)

	Frequency		Size
Shocks	episodes	in % of country observations	in % change	in std. deviations
External demand	106	8.2	0.6	–1.53
Terms of trade	132	10.2	–35.6	–1.89
FDI	94	14.7	–3.8¹	–1.42
Climatic conditions	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Aid	146	11.3	–5.4¹	–1.21

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

^{Table A2.2.}

Frequency and Size of Shocks (Whole-Sample Distribution)

(Average values)

	Frequency		Size
Shocks	episodes	in % of country observations	in % change	in std. deviations
External demand	106	8.2	0.6	–1.53
Terms of trade	132	10.2	–35.6	–1.89
FDI	94	14.7	–3.8¹	–1.42
Climatic conditions	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Aid	146	11.3	–5.4¹	–1.21

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^¹In percentage points of GDP.

The analysis did not seem to be biased by permanent factors. Specifically, cumulative losses associated with “closed” events were broadly consistent with those presented earlier. However, the magnitude of losses was generally smaller and their duration shorter, particularly for GDP losses as a result of external demand shocks, and consumption losses as a result of terms-of-trade shocks (Figure A2.3). This suggests that the role of international reserves as a buffer against external shocks is not significantly affected by the inclusion of permanent factors (i.e., “open” events) in the analysis.

^{Table A2.3.}

Macroeconomic Variables (1980–2007): Summary Statistics

(Percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; average values)

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010.

^{Table A2.3.}

Macroeconomic Variables (1980–2007): Summary Statistics

(Percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; average values)

Country	Country code	Region	Real GDP	Real per-capita absorption	Real per-capita consumption	Real per-capita investment	Reserves in months of imports	Reserve accumulation	CA-to-GDP (in %)	Fiscal balance-to-GDP (in%)	External demand	Terms of trade (goods only)	FDI	Aid excluding debt relief
Afghanistan	512	South Asia	11.7	1.6	2.0	–0.4	3.5	36.4	–5.3	–1.6	3.8	0.0	31.6	24.7
Armenia	911	Europe & Central Asia	1.7	22.4	43.1	18.8	3.1	47.7	–7.5	–2.1	2.1	n.a.	43.1	27.8
Bangladesh	513	South Asia	4.4	1.8	1.0	5.0	2.5	9.3	–1.6	–4.8	2.7	–0.9	21.8	–0.6
Benin	638	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.5	0.5	1.1	–1.5	4.5	15.7	–7.4	–3.7	4.8	–3.1	31.3	5.7
Bhutan	514	South Asia	7.3	6.4	5.3	7.9	11.2	12.9	–15.6	–2.4	4.9	1.3	71.1	12.9
Bolivia	218	Latin America & Caribbean	2.3	–0.4	–0.3	–1.6	4.5	11.0	–2.8	–6.3	3.0	–0.8	0.5	4.3
Burkina Faso	748	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.5	1.2	1.2	1.3	5.0	10.0	–5.9	–1.3	5.9	–1.7	52.5	4.1
Burundi	618	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.4	–0.6	–0.6	–1.3	5.1	2.4	–7.2	–3.4	3.0	–3.3	31.8	5.4
Cambodia	522	East Asia & Pacific	7.9	3.8	3.5	6.4	2.6	30.9	–3.9	–1.6	3.2	–0.7	18.3	10.1
Cameroon	622	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.9	–0.3	–0.2	–1.3	1.0	11.2	–2.0	5.3	3.2	0.5	9.4	7.9
Cape Verde	624	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.9	2.8	1.6	6.8	3.9	6.3	–9.3	–5.1	2.8	–1.8	12.4	5.1
Central African Republic	626	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.0	–1.7	–1.7	–1.8	4.9	2.2	–5.6	–2.8	3.2	0.9	16.6	3.0
Chad	628	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.8	1.7	0.6	10.9	2.1	15.7	–14.3	–6.3	3.2	3.8	7.0	5.4
Comoros	632	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.1	0.0	–0.1	1.2	5.4	9.8	–10.1	–1.8	3.3	–2.7	17.9	4.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. of	636	Sub-Saharan Africa	–0.6	–3.1	–3.1	–2.4	1.0	–0.7	–4.5	–4.3	5.0	2.1	20.4	3.6
Congo, Rep.	634	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.8	1.8	1.4	3.4	1.1	14.0	–0.6	–0.7	5.6	3.8	30.4	–0.2
Côte d’lvoire	662	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.8	–1.8	–1.4	–4.2	1.4	10.1	–1.2	–1.5	3.1	1.9	18.0	–0.8
Djibouti	611	Middle East & North Africa	0.7	–2.2	–3.4	5.5	3.4	1.7	–5.0	–4.3		–1.9	26.1	4.9
Dominica	321	Latin America & Caribbean	3.0	2.3	2.2	2.6	1.9	6.5	–18.5	–3.5	4.0	1.1	22.3	–3.5
Eritrea	643	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.5	–1.5	–1.0	–8.5	1.1	–17.8	–2.1	–16.8	3.1	–1.1	–16.8	–0.4
Ethiopia	644	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.6	1.2	0.9	2.9	3.0	6.9	–2.7	–4.6	3.1	–2.8	20.8	10.2
Gambia, The	648	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	0.0	0.5	–2.7	3.5	15.4	–6.1	–4.5	4.5	1.1	19.8	3.3
Georgia	915	Europe & Central Asia	–0.5	8.2	7.6	29.6	1.8	26.9	–8.3	1.0	2.7	1.5	41.4	44.1
Ghana	652	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.2	1.8	0.8	10.2	2.9	7.6	–4.3	–7.5	2.9	–1.4	15.3	7.4
Grenada	328	Latin America & Caribbean	3.6	4.1	3.5	4.8	2.4	7.9	–15.5	–4.8	3.2	0.4	17.5	8.5
Guinea	656	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	1.7	4.9	–5.3	–3.9	3.8	–0.1	36.0	7.7
Guinea-Bissau	654	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.1	–2.2	–0.5	–7.5	4.8	2.2	–7.5	–5.5	3.8	–2.6	43.6	0.9
Guyana	336	Latin America & Caribbean	1.0	–0.1	2.4	–4.0	2.8	10.3	–19.0	–4.4	2.8	–2.6	23.1	3.3
Haiti	263	Latin America & Caribbean	0.3	–3.7	–3.9	–2.8	1.4	7.5	–2.9	–1.2	3.1	–3.7	0.7	7.8
Honduras	268	Latin America & Caribbean	3.3	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.1	8.9	–5.1	–2.5	2.8	–1.2	16.3	6.9
Kenya	664	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.4	0.8	0.8	1.1	2.4	6.0	–2.4	–3.1	3.3	–2.0	26.9	3.8
Kiribati	826	East Asia & Pacific	0.1	1.4	1.0	2.4	n.a.	n.a.	10.8	–8.2	4.0	4.6	n.a.	3.3
Kyrgyz Republic	917	Europe & Central Asia	0.9	2.6	2.2	5.3	3.6	20.0	–4.8	–5.1	2.5	0.3	43.5	23.6
Lao PDR	544	East Asia & Pacific	6.0	4.3	3.5	7.2	1.8	34.9	–8.9	–4.3	5.7	2.3	12.1	7.6
Lesotho	666	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.7	1.7	1.9	0.6	3.7	23.5	–19.3	0.4	3.3	–1.7	12.5	1.1
Liberia	668	Sub-Saharan Africa	–1.0	–5.6	–5.2	–7.8	0.2	2.8	–26.7	1.2	3.0	n.a.	186.9	7.2
Madagascar	674	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.6	–1.7	–2.1	0.2	2.3	18.3	–7.7	–5.6	2.8	–3.6	22.5	5.9
Malawi	676	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.9	0.9	2.1	–1.5	2.0	4.0	–8.0	–3.8	2.8	–1.5	10.2	5.3
Maldives	556	South Asia	7.6	5.8	5.6	6.3	2.0	21.7	–6.8	–7.8	3.9	0.0	–0.5	10.5
Mali	678	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	1.9	1.9	1.2	3.4	18.1	–4.4	2.1	5.4	–0.7	22.8	6.4
Mauritania	682	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.1	1.4	0.8	4.1	1.6	2.0	–11.4	–1.6	4.2	2.5	18.0	4.7
Moldova	921	Europe & Central Asia	–2.0	5.9	7.8	1.1	2.5	39.6	–4.5	–2.4	2.6	–0.6	19.1	18.6
Mongolia	948	East Asia & Pacific	3.8	2.6	2.3	2.1	3.0	28.3	–1.3	–7.0	7.6	1.4	34.6	30.7
Mozambique	688	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.5	0.6	0.9	–3.5	3.8	5.5	–12.7	–5.0	2.5	2.3	26.9	8.0
Myanmar	518	East Asia & Pacific	6.2	3.3	2.8	6.8	2.2	8.6	–6.5	–2.5	5.7	0.0	6.6	–2.5
Nepal	558	South Asia	4.2	2.4	2.2	3.3	5.3	8.8	–2.8	–1.3	4.9	n.a.	–43.2	5.4
Nicaragua	278	Latin America & Caribbean	1.7	–0.2	–0.8	4.0	2.5	7.2	–20.6	–1.7	2.9	0.5	12.0	6.8
Niger	692	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.8	–1.3	–1.3	–1.2	3.4	5.4	–5.8	0.2	2.7	–2.3	56.0	2.5
Nigeria	694	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	–0.9	–1.1	–0.1	4.7	7.9	–1.5	3.4	3.1	0.6	13.6	17.4
Papua New Guinea	853	East Asia & Pacific	2.7	0.6	1.1	–1.0	3.1	5.0	2.2	–1.8
Rwanda	714	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.7	1.0	0.6	3.8	4.6	4.3	–5.5	–3.5	3.9	0.1	2.9	0.2
São Tomé & Principe	716	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.5	–0.1	–0.6	2.9	3.7	3.4	–21.1	18.2	4.4	–3.8	10.7	5.2
Samoa	862	East Asia & Pacific	2.1	0.3	1.0	–3.3	5.0	10.7	–4.0	–0.4	2.7	–6.5	24.8	11.0
Senegal	722	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.0	0.5	0.0	2.5	1.6	15.7	–7.6	–2.3	3.7	–2.8	n.a.	1.2
Sierra Leone	724	Sub-Saharan Africa	0.2	–2.1	–2.2	–1.6	1.9	5.5	–6.4	–1.8	3.3	–1.1	28.2	4.0
Solomon Islands	813	East Asia & Pacific	2.1	–3.0	–3.7	1.8	3.3	4.2	–4.9	–5.0	2.9	–1.2	17.3	9.3
St. Lucia	362	Latin America & Caribbean	3.8	1.2	0.8	3.5	1.8	10.5	–13.9	–1.5	7.2	–2.1	6.2	8.3
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	364	Latin America & Caribbean	4.3	3.8	3.3	5.0	2.2	8.1	–14.0	–1.8	2.8	1.7	8.1	4.3
Sudan	732	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.4	2.1	0.8	6.1	0.8	10.8	–20.0	–5.2	3.3	–1.8	16.8	7.7
Tajikistan	923	Europe & Central Asia	–0.8	0.7	1.5	–9.3	0.8	31.8	–6.9	–3.1	7.5	3.4	34.3	8.6
Tanzania	738	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.0	1.0	0.8	1.2	3.0	13.4	–5.6	–1.9	3.2	–11.0	19.2	14.8
Timor—Leste	537	East Asia & Pacific	3.0	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	4.0	33.3	63.7	76.3	3.9	–7.4	60.5	4.9
Togo	742	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.3	–2.4	–1.6	–5.2	3.9	6.8	–11.6	–3.5	n.a.	1.2	–7.5	33.1
Tonga	866	East Asia & Pacific	4.4	2.2	2.7	0.3	4.6	5.9	–2.8	–0.4	3.8	–4.5	–143.2	–0.2
Uganda	746	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.1	4.5	3.6	13.9	4.1	16.9	–3.7	–2.5	3.2	n.a.	n.a.	0.9
Uzbekistan	927	Europe & Central Asia	2.7	–0.9	–0.7	–1.6	5.6	15.2	0.2	–2.0	3.0	–4.2	40.9	14.7
Vanuatu	846	East Asia & Pacific	3.0	0.8	0.7	1.0	3.6	6.3	0.8	–2.1	2.6	0.5	32.3	28.8
Vietnam	582	East Asia & Pacific	6.4	4.9	3.7	9.3	1.4	48.7	–3.6	–2.8	4.9	–2.0	4.1	1.2
Yemen, Rep.	474	Middle East & North Africa	4.8	1.6	1.2	4.1	7.4	17.1	1.6	–1.7	4.1	1.5	21.4	6.7
Zambia	754	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.7	–0.4	–0.1	–0.4	1.8	8.9	–9.3	–0.4	6.0	–2.3	13.3	3.9
Zimbabwe	698	Sub-Saharan Africa	–3.8	–0.7	–0.7	–0.2	1.4	3.5	–10.5	–6.2	3.3	–1.1	26.9	4.3
*Memorandum*:
Low-Income Countries			3.0	1.2	1.5	2.1	3.1	12.6	-6.1	-1.6	4.8	0.3	11.0	8.4
East Asia & Pacific			4.0	1.9	1.7	3.0	3.1	19.7	3.5	3.4	2.6	-1.9	33.1	26.3
Europe & Central Asia			0.3	6.5	10.3	7.3	2.9	30.2	-5.3	-2.3	3.1	-0.7	13.0	5.1
Latin America & Caribbean			2.6	0.9	0.9	1.4	2.4	8.7	-12.5	-3.1	5.2	-2.1	19.7	4.4
Middle East & North Africa			2.7	-0.3	-1.1	4.8	5.4	9.4	-1.7	-3.0	4.1	0.1	16.1	10.6
South Asia			7.1	3.6	3.2	4.4	4.9	17.8	-6.4	-3.6	3.7	-1.1	24.0	5.6
Sub-Saharan Africa			2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	2.9	8.1	-8.0	-2.4

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010.

^{Table A2.3.}

Macroeconomic Variables (1980–2007): Summary Statistics

(Percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; average values)

Country	Country code	Region	Real GDP	Real per-capita absorption	Real per-capita consumption	Real per-capita investment	Reserves in months of imports	Reserve accumulation	CA-to-GDP (in %)	Fiscal balance-to-GDP (in%)	External demand	Terms of trade (goods only)	FDI	Aid excluding debt relief
Afghanistan	512	South Asia	11.7	1.6	2.0	–0.4	3.5	36.4	–5.3	–1.6	3.8	0.0	31.6	24.7
Armenia	911	Europe & Central Asia	1.7	22.4	43.1	18.8	3.1	47.7	–7.5	–2.1	2.1	n.a.	43.1	27.8
Bangladesh	513	South Asia	4.4	1.8	1.0	5.0	2.5	9.3	–1.6	–4.8	2.7	–0.9	21.8	–0.6
Benin	638	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.5	0.5	1.1	–1.5	4.5	15.7	–7.4	–3.7	4.8	–3.1	31.3	5.7
Bhutan	514	South Asia	7.3	6.4	5.3	7.9	11.2	12.9	–15.6	–2.4	4.9	1.3	71.1	12.9
Bolivia	218	Latin America & Caribbean	2.3	–0.4	–0.3	–1.6	4.5	11.0	–2.8	–6.3	3.0	–0.8	0.5	4.3
Burkina Faso	748	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.5	1.2	1.2	1.3	5.0	10.0	–5.9	–1.3	5.9	–1.7	52.5	4.1
Burundi	618	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.4	–0.6	–0.6	–1.3	5.1	2.4	–7.2	–3.4	3.0	–3.3	31.8	5.4
Cambodia	522	East Asia & Pacific	7.9	3.8	3.5	6.4	2.6	30.9	–3.9	–1.6	3.2	–0.7	18.3	10.1
Cameroon	622	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.9	–0.3	–0.2	–1.3	1.0	11.2	–2.0	5.3	3.2	0.5	9.4	7.9
Cape Verde	624	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.9	2.8	1.6	6.8	3.9	6.3	–9.3	–5.1	2.8	–1.8	12.4	5.1
Central African Republic	626	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.0	–1.7	–1.7	–1.8	4.9	2.2	–5.6	–2.8	3.2	0.9	16.6	3.0
Chad	628	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.8	1.7	0.6	10.9	2.1	15.7	–14.3	–6.3	3.2	3.8	7.0	5.4
Comoros	632	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.1	0.0	–0.1	1.2	5.4	9.8	–10.1	–1.8	3.3	–2.7	17.9	4.0
Congo, Dem. Rep. of	636	Sub-Saharan Africa	–0.6	–3.1	–3.1	–2.4	1.0	–0.7	–4.5	–4.3	5.0	2.1	20.4	3.6
Congo, Rep.	634	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.8	1.8	1.4	3.4	1.1	14.0	–0.6	–0.7	5.6	3.8	30.4	–0.2
Côte d’lvoire	662	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.8	–1.8	–1.4	–4.2	1.4	10.1	–1.2	–1.5	3.1	1.9	18.0	–0.8
Djibouti	611	Middle East & North Africa	0.7	–2.2	–3.4	5.5	3.4	1.7	–5.0	–4.3		–1.9	26.1	4.9
Dominica	321	Latin America & Caribbean	3.0	2.3	2.2	2.6	1.9	6.5	–18.5	–3.5	4.0	1.1	22.3	–3.5
Eritrea	643	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.5	–1.5	–1.0	–8.5	1.1	–17.8	–2.1	–16.8	3.1	–1.1	–16.8	–0.4
Ethiopia	644	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.6	1.2	0.9	2.9	3.0	6.9	–2.7	–4.6	3.1	–2.8	20.8	10.2
Gambia, The	648	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	0.0	0.5	–2.7	3.5	15.4	–6.1	–4.5	4.5	1.1	19.8	3.3
Georgia	915	Europe & Central Asia	–0.5	8.2	7.6	29.6	1.8	26.9	–8.3	1.0	2.7	1.5	41.4	44.1
Ghana	652	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.2	1.8	0.8	10.2	2.9	7.6	–4.3	–7.5	2.9	–1.4	15.3	7.4
Grenada	328	Latin America & Caribbean	3.6	4.1	3.5	4.8	2.4	7.9	–15.5	–4.8	3.2	0.4	17.5	8.5
Guinea	656	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	1.7	4.9	–5.3	–3.9	3.8	–0.1	36.0	7.7
Guinea-Bissau	654	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.1	–2.2	–0.5	–7.5	4.8	2.2	–7.5	–5.5	3.8	–2.6	43.6	0.9
Guyana	336	Latin America & Caribbean	1.0	–0.1	2.4	–4.0	2.8	10.3	–19.0	–4.4	2.8	–2.6	23.1	3.3
Haiti	263	Latin America & Caribbean	0.3	–3.7	–3.9	–2.8	1.4	7.5	–2.9	–1.2	3.1	–3.7	0.7	7.8
Honduras	268	Latin America & Caribbean	3.3	1.0	1.0	1.1	2.1	8.9	–5.1	–2.5	2.8	–1.2	16.3	6.9
Kenya	664	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.4	0.8	0.8	1.1	2.4	6.0	–2.4	–3.1	3.3	–2.0	26.9	3.8
Kiribati	826	East Asia & Pacific	0.1	1.4	1.0	2.4	n.a.	n.a.	10.8	–8.2	4.0	4.6	n.a.	3.3
Kyrgyz Republic	917	Europe & Central Asia	0.9	2.6	2.2	5.3	3.6	20.0	–4.8	–5.1	2.5	0.3	43.5	23.6
Lao PDR	544	East Asia & Pacific	6.0	4.3	3.5	7.2	1.8	34.9	–8.9	–4.3	5.7	2.3	12.1	7.6
Lesotho	666	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.7	1.7	1.9	0.6	3.7	23.5	–19.3	0.4	3.3	–1.7	12.5	1.1
Liberia	668	Sub-Saharan Africa	–1.0	–5.6	–5.2	–7.8	0.2	2.8	–26.7	1.2	3.0	n.a.	186.9	7.2
Madagascar	674	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.6	–1.7	–2.1	0.2	2.3	18.3	–7.7	–5.6	2.8	–3.6	22.5	5.9
Malawi	676	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.9	0.9	2.1	–1.5	2.0	4.0	–8.0	–3.8	2.8	–1.5	10.2	5.3
Maldives	556	South Asia	7.6	5.8	5.6	6.3	2.0	21.7	–6.8	–7.8	3.9	0.0	–0.5	10.5
Mali	678	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	1.9	1.9	1.2	3.4	18.1	–4.4	2.1	5.4	–0.7	22.8	6.4
Mauritania	682	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.1	1.4	0.8	4.1	1.6	2.0	–11.4	–1.6	4.2	2.5	18.0	4.7
Moldova	921	Europe & Central Asia	–2.0	5.9	7.8	1.1	2.5	39.6	–4.5	–2.4	2.6	–0.6	19.1	18.6
Mongolia	948	East Asia & Pacific	3.8	2.6	2.3	2.1	3.0	28.3	–1.3	–7.0	7.6	1.4	34.6	30.7
Mozambique	688	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.5	0.6	0.9	–3.5	3.8	5.5	–12.7	–5.0	2.5	2.3	26.9	8.0
Myanmar	518	East Asia & Pacific	6.2	3.3	2.8	6.8	2.2	8.6	–6.5	–2.5	5.7	0.0	6.6	–2.5
Nepal	558	South Asia	4.2	2.4	2.2	3.3	5.3	8.8	–2.8	–1.3	4.9	n.a.	–43.2	5.4
Nicaragua	278	Latin America & Caribbean	1.7	–0.2	–0.8	4.0	2.5	7.2	–20.6	–1.7	2.9	0.5	12.0	6.8
Niger	692	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.8	–1.3	–1.3	–1.2	3.4	5.4	–5.8	0.2	2.7	–2.3	56.0	2.5
Nigeria	694	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.9	–0.9	–1.1	–0.1	4.7	7.9	–1.5	3.4	3.1	0.6	13.6	17.4
Papua New Guinea	853	East Asia & Pacific	2.7	0.6	1.1	–1.0	3.1	5.0	2.2	–1.8
Rwanda	714	Sub-Saharan Africa	2.7	1.0	0.6	3.8	4.6	4.3	–5.5	–3.5	3.9	0.1	2.9	0.2
São Tomé & Principe	716	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.5	–0.1	–0.6	2.9	3.7	3.4	–21.1	18.2	4.4	–3.8	10.7	5.2
Samoa	862	East Asia & Pacific	2.1	0.3	1.0	–3.3	5.0	10.7	–4.0	–0.4	2.7	–6.5	24.8	11.0
Senegal	722	Sub-Saharan Africa	3.0	0.5	0.0	2.5	1.6	15.7	–7.6	–2.3	3.7	–2.8	n.a.	1.2
Sierra Leone	724	Sub-Saharan Africa	0.2	–2.1	–2.2	–1.6	1.9	5.5	–6.4	–1.8	3.3	–1.1	28.2	4.0
Solomon Islands	813	East Asia & Pacific	2.1	–3.0	–3.7	1.8	3.3	4.2	–4.9	–5.0	2.9	–1.2	17.3	9.3
St. Lucia	362	Latin America & Caribbean	3.8	1.2	0.8	3.5	1.8	10.5	–13.9	–1.5	7.2	–2.1	6.2	8.3
St. Vincent and the Grenadines	364	Latin America & Caribbean	4.3	3.8	3.3	5.0	2.2	8.1	–14.0	–1.8	2.8	1.7	8.1	4.3
Sudan	732	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.4	2.1	0.8	6.1	0.8	10.8	–20.0	–5.2	3.3	–1.8	16.8	7.7
Tajikistan	923	Europe & Central Asia	–0.8	0.7	1.5	–9.3	0.8	31.8	–6.9	–3.1	7.5	3.4	34.3	8.6
Tanzania	738	Sub-Saharan Africa	4.0	1.0	0.8	1.2	3.0	13.4	–5.6	–1.9	3.2	–11.0	19.2	14.8
Timor—Leste	537	East Asia & Pacific	3.0	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	4.0	33.3	63.7	76.3	3.9	–7.4	60.5	4.9
Togo	742	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.3	–2.4	–1.6	–5.2	3.9	6.8	–11.6	–3.5	n.a.	1.2	–7.5	33.1
Tonga	866	East Asia & Pacific	4.4	2.2	2.7	0.3	4.6	5.9	–2.8	–0.4	3.8	–4.5	–143.2	–0.2
Uganda	746	Sub-Saharan Africa	5.1	4.5	3.6	13.9	4.1	16.9	–3.7	–2.5	3.2	n.a.	n.a.	0.9
Uzbekistan	927	Europe & Central Asia	2.7	–0.9	–0.7	–1.6	5.6	15.2	0.2	–2.0	3.0	–4.2	40.9	14.7
Vanuatu	846	East Asia & Pacific	3.0	0.8	0.7	1.0	3.6	6.3	0.8	–2.1	2.6	0.5	32.3	28.8
Vietnam	582	East Asia & Pacific	6.4	4.9	3.7	9.3	1.4	48.7	–3.6	–2.8	4.9	–2.0	4.1	1.2
Yemen, Rep.	474	Middle East & North Africa	4.8	1.6	1.2	4.1	7.4	17.1	1.6	–1.7	4.1	1.5	21.4	6.7
Zambia	754	Sub-Saharan Africa	1.7	–0.4	–0.1	–0.4	1.8	8.9	–9.3	–0.4	6.0	–2.3	13.3	3.9
Zimbabwe	698	Sub-Saharan Africa	–3.8	–0.7	–0.7	–0.2	1.4	3.5	–10.5	–6.2	3.3	–1.1	26.9	4.3
*Memorandum*:
Low-Income Countries			3.0	1.2	1.5	2.1	3.1	12.6	-6.1	-1.6	4.8	0.3	11.0	8.4
East Asia & Pacific			4.0	1.9	1.7	3.0	3.1	19.7	3.5	3.4	2.6	-1.9	33.1	26.3
Europe & Central Asia			0.3	6.5	10.3	7.3	2.9	30.2	-5.3	-2.3	3.1	-0.7	13.0	5.1
Latin America & Caribbean			2.6	0.9	0.9	1.4	2.4	8.7	-12.5	-3.1	5.2	-2.1	19.7	4.4
Middle East & North Africa			2.7	-0.3	-1.1	4.8	5.4	9.4	-1.7	-3.0	4.1	0.1	16.1	10.6
South Asia			7.1	3.6	3.2	4.4	4.9	17.8	-6.4	-3.6	3.7	-1.1	24.0	5.6
Sub-Saharan Africa			2.7	0.0	0.0	0.6	2.9	8.1	-8.0	-2.4

Source: IMF staff calculations; World Economic Outlook April 2010.

^{Table A2.4.}

Macroeconomic Impact of Shocks

(Annual percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; median values)

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^{Table A2.4.}

Macroeconomic Impact of Shocks

(Annual percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; median values)

	External demand					Terms of trade					Climatic conditions					FDI					Aid
	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3
Whole sample
GDP growth	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.5	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.2	3.6	3.6	3.2	2.9	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.9	3.7	4.2	4.4	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.6	3.5	4.1
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.2	0.4	0.3	–0.1	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.7	1.5	0.9	0.1	–0.2	0.9	1.4	1.2	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.5	1.1	0.7	1.5	0.1	1.4	1.8
Real per capita investment growth	–0.6	2.4	–2.1	1.0	1.5	2.7	2.3	0.1	3.2	2.1	2.6	1.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	3.2	4.7	2.8	3.8	1.8	2.8	1.0	3.0	3.3	3.9
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.4	1.0	–0.3	0.4	0.8	2.1	0.9	0.6	1.6	0.4	0.7	0.6	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.6	1.6	0.9	2.0	0.9	0.9	1.2	0.8	1.4	1.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.5	2.3	2.2	2.4	2.5	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.1	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.7	2.3	2.5	2.6	2.6	2.8	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.8	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	9.6	5.2	4.8	9.9	8.9	9.1	6.2	6.0	9.9	8.5	7.9	8.9	5.8	6.1	9.5	13.9	7.5	6.8	11.1	10.9	4.8	5.4	9.6	12.8	8.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.3	–6.5	–5.9	–6.0	–4.5	–5.4	–7.1	–7.4	–7.0	–6.0	–5.9	–5.8	–6.1	–5.8	–6.0	–6.8	–6.1	–5.8	–5.6	–6.2	–5.8	–7.2	–6.8	–6.3	–5.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.9	–3.8	–3.9	–3.8	–3.2	–3.0	–3.1	–3.4	–3.2	–3.5	–3.0	–2.7	–2.7	–2.7	–3.0	–3.5	–3.5	–3.3	–3.3	–2.9	–2.9	–3.0	–3.3	–3.4	–2.9
Flexible exchange rate
GDP growth	4.8	3.7	4.2	4.5	3.9	4.1	4.6	4.1	4.8	4.9	3.2	3.6	4.5	4.0	4.0	4.1	3.9	5.1	4.6	4.4	4.4	4.0	4.6	3.7	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.3	1.1	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.3	2.5	2.9	–0.1	1.8	0.0	2.7	2.7	1.4	0.6	1.4	2.0	1.6	2.7	2.9	1.4	1.5	2.1
Real per capita investment growth	–2.3	3.9	2.1	3.9	0.8	0.0	3.1	1.6	4.2	2.1	6.7	2.4	5.9	0.2	1.7	4.2	3.2	3.1	1.8	1.9	3.4	3.9	2.1	2.9	5.6
Real per capita absorption growth	1.6	2.0	1.0	1.3	0.8	2.8	1.9	0.4	2.3	1.9	0.5	2.8	1.8	1.9	1.0	2.4	0.7	1.0	2.3	0.7	2.2	3.4	1.5	1.3	2.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.9	4.1	4.6	4.4	4.1	2.7	2.5	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.8	2.5	2.9	3.1	3.1	2.6	2.8	3.0	2.9	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	34.6	10.7	11.4	17.1	12.7	26.5	12.8	16.3	11.7	7.6	13.1	9.6	13.5	9.5	4.0	18.1	3.2	10.2	11.7	17.1	9.1	12.1	12.7	12.8	12.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–3.3	–3.4	–4.3	–4.9	–4.5	–5.1	–5.9	–5.5	–6.8	–5.6	–5.9	–6.1	–6.6	–5.6	–4.9	–6.0	–6.8	–5.8	–4.7	–5.4	–5.9	–7.0	–6.9	–6.7	–6.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.0	–4.6	–3.5	–3.9	–3.4	–2.3	–3.6	–2.6	–3.3	–3.4	–3.7	–3.3	–2.3	–3.2	–3.5	–3.5	–4.1	–3.3	–4.2	–2.9	–2.6	–2.8	–3.3	–2.7	–3.1
Fixed exchange rate
GDP growth	2.9	2.6	2.7	3.2	3.5	3.3	2.9	2.1	2.8	3.0	3.2	2.6	3.0	3.4	2.9	3.9	3.4	3.7	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.4	2.7	3.0	3.6
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.6	0.3	–0.2	–1.0	0.8	0.4	–0.1	0.2	0.0	–0.1	0.1	–1.8	0.6	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.3	1.1	–0.1	–0.6	1.0	–1.3	0.8	0.9
Real per capita investment growth	–1.1	1.0	–2.8	–0.3	1.0	3.1	1.9	–0.9	2.8	–0.2	2.5	1.3	–0.7	0.8	–0.7	2.3	3.8	2.0	2.3	–2.1	1.9	0.2	3.1	2.5	3.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	2.1	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.3	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.6	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.2	2.8	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.7	3.2
Reserves (percentage change)	5.0	2.5	1.7	6.3	3.9	5.5	5.6	4.2	8.6	7.3	2.2	7.0	3.4	3.6	10.0	9.0	7.8	6.3	13.5	7.2	1.6	1.7	8.1	11.4	5.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.1	–7.7	–6.8	–6.3	–4.8	–6.0	–8.4	–8.4	–7.1	–6.3	–6.2	–6.5	–6.9	–6.6	–6.7	–7.7	–6.5	–7.5	–7.0	–7.2	–6.2	–7.7	–7.1	–6.1	–6.4
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.8	–3.0	–3.8	–3.4	–3.2	–3.2	–3.1	–3.5	–3.0	–3.4	–2.7	–2.6	–2.7	–2.3	–2.8	–3.7	–2.9	–3.5	–2.4	–2.6	–2.9	–3.0	–3.2	–3.6	–2.6
Commodity exporters
GDP growth	3.3	2.1	1.5	1.5	1.8	3.5	3.7	3.0	3.5	2.6	2.8	1.2	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.9	4.3	4.3	3.8	4.1	3.1	3.4	2.5	3.5	2.9
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.6	–1.8	–0.2	–1.9	–2.0	1.7	0.1	1.3	–0.4	–1.8	–0.8	–1.7	–0.6	–0.3	–0.2	2.1	3.3	2.1	1.7	0.5	–0.7	0.7	–1.3	1.5	1.2
Real per capita investment growth	–2.4	–1.1	–7.6	–2.6	–2.8	4.0	–1.7	–6.2	4.0	0.9	–1.8	–2.8	–0.3	–0.4	–5.0	3.7	7.0	–3.2	–2.0	2.9	3.8	–1.7	1.1	0.6	6.2
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.0	–1.8	–2.7	–3.0	–2.0	2.6	–0.4	–1.3	0.8	–2.7	–0.3	–1.7	–1.8	–0.3	–0.4	0.8	2.1	0.6	2.1	0.7	–0.2	–1.7	–2.0	0.2	1.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	2.4	2.1	2.5	2.3	2.6	2.4	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.1	2.2	2.8	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.8	2.9	3.1	2.1	2.4	2.1	2.8	2.8
Reserves (percentage change)	1.8	7.9	–9.9	3.8	–7.3	–1.9	–6.6	12.9	8.3	2.9	5.1	5.2	2.7	7.3	7.4	11.6	5.4	4.0	12.5	10.7	0.5	0.5	7.9	21.3	7.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–11.1	–7.7	–8.1	–7.8	–5.9	–6.5	–7.6	–7.7	–7.9	–5.8	–6.3	–5.4	–3.9	–4.3	–5.6	–7.6	–7.3	–7.5	–7.4	–7.9	–6.7	–7.5	–6.0	–5.5	–5.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–5.0	–3.8	–4.2	–3.8	–3.3	–2.9	–3.6	–3.8	–4.0	–3.6	–4.0	–2.8	–3.3	–3.5	–3.3	–4.4	–4.0	–3.7	–4.3	–3.2	–3.3	–3.8	–3.4	–2.8	–3.3
Oil exporters
GDP growth	5.6	3.1	2.4	3.1	3.8	2.1	3.7	3.9	4.0	6.0	2.8	4.5	2.4	2.7	4.6	2.6	2.9	5.0	3.4	2.9	4.3	5.7	1.6	2.9	5.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.8	2.6	–1.0	1.4	–0.5	6.3	–0.5	2.1	2.0	3.5	–0.2	3.3	0.3	1.8	4.3	–3.9	6.8	–0.5	–5.4	–0.3	0.6	2.6	–0.7	–0.9	0.0
Real per capita investment growth	1.6	1.3	–6.4	3.5	4.2	1.1	0.2	4.5	6.8	2.0	1.1	2.1	9.0	–2.8	1.4	1.4	2.9	1.1	0.3	–2.8	0.9	5.6	0.8	4.8	3.6
Real per capita absorption growth	0.8	6.3	–1.6	1.0	0.6	6.0	0.7	3.6	2.5	–1.0	–0.4	1.4	1.6	0.7	–2.9	4.0	3.5	–0.4	–4.7	0.2	–0.3	3.1	1.3	0.7	0.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	1.3	1.0	1.3	1.9	2.0	1.6	1.1	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.3	1.8	1.8	2.5	1.1	1.4	1.7	1.6	2.6	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.7	2.3
Reserves (percentage change)	20.1	–4.4	–34.3	3.4	18.1	27.3	–12.7	–14.3	42.5	5.3	10.5	–6.5	13.1	15.9	26.3	10.5	25.5	7.4	6.8	10.7	–2.9	21.3	8.1	14.7	11.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	2.6	–2.9	–1.9	–3.8	–3.0	–1.7	–9.4	–15.9	–6.0	–4.6	–6.1	–8.7	–8.9	–8.3	–3.0	–5.1	–8.9	0.5	1.7	–0.4	–7.6	–8.5	–8.5	–7.0	–8.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.6	–4.9	–0.8	–3.3	–0.9	0.5	–7.8	–4.5	2.1	3.6	2.5	–0.9	–1.5	2.9	3.6	–5.2	–5.7	–2.4	2.4	–1.5	3.6	–0.7	–3.2	–3.5	–3.2
Commodity importers
GDP growth	4.2	3.3	2.4	3.7	3.7	3.7	4.4	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.9	4.1	3.9	4.2	4.4	3.8	3.3	4.4	4.1	3.9	3.7	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.3	0.6	–1.0	–0.3	1.9	4.1	1.2	0.5	0.4	–0.8	–0.3	–0.6	0.4	1.6	0.6	0.9	4.3	1.2	0.7	–0.3	–0.5	2.0	0.5	1.2	0.6
Real per capita investment growth	–1.8	1.6	–4.4	0.0	0.7	1.1	1.8	0.5	1.3	2.0	0.3	1.1	2.2	0.3	1.3	1.4	3.3	2.4	–2.3	0.8	–0.3	4.5	–0.4	2.6	3.9
Real per capita absorption growth	–0.5	0.9	–1.9	0.1	2.0	3.2	1.3	0.5	1.5	–0.5	–0.5	0.1	0.5	1.9	0.9	1.2	3.5	0.9	–0.4	0.2	–0.3	2.5	1.9	0.9	0.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	1.6	1.3	1.6	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.5	1.7	2.1	1.9	2.7	1.4	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.5	2.8
Reserves (percentage change)	13.4	–0.5	–13.7	10.9	12.9	10.9	8.5	4.2	15.8	9.2	6.1	12.2	14.5	6.8	7.6	12.8	7.1	6.2	8.4	8.3	7.2	8.3	11.0	14.7	7.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.6	–4.6	–4.8	–5.0	–3.9	–3.7	–7.6	–6.4	–6.1	–6.1	–4.8	–4.3	–3.1	–4.3	–4.3	–5.0	–5.4	–3.5	–5.8	–4.6	–4.2	–4.2	–7.0	–4.0	–4.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–2.2	–4.4	–2.5	–3.8	–2.8	–1.9	–3.0	–3.4	–2.7	–2.5	–2.4	–1.7	–2.0	–1.5	–2.6	–3.7	–3.8	–3.0	–2.0	–1.6	–1.5	–1.6	–3.1	–3.9	–3.2
Islands
GDP growth	1.7	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.0	3.1	2.9	2.7	2.8	2.8	3.5	2.7	3.2	2.3	2.6	3.0	2.1	3.7	2.3	3.0	2.6	2.7	3.1	2.5	2.7
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.5	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	1.7	0.2	0.8	2.6	0.5	1.2	0.8	1.7	2.1	1.1	0.2	–0.1	1.4	1.8	–0.3	1.2	0.8	1.9	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	0.9	0.0	–2.3	–1.1	–0.2	1.6	6.0	–1.9	4.6	–0.6	0.9	1.3	3.7	0.6	–0.7	3.2	2.3	3.2	1.0	0.2	2.8	0.0	2.3	3.2	4.6
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.4	0.7	–0.1	0.7	0.5	2.9	2.5	–0.7	1.5	2.1	0.7	2.3	1.3	1.3	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.9	1.8	2.3	–0.4	0.3	2.5	2.1
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	2.4	3.0	2.6	3.1	2.6	2.5	2.7	2.5	2.9	2.1	2.3	2.6	2.7	2.9	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.9	2.7	3.0
Reserves (percentage change)	5.6	6.0	11.5	14.7	1.5	10.1	10.1	3.8	8.4	12.0	5.5	12.2	7.1	5.9	10.2	12.8	2.1	8.0	10.4	8.1	7.2	5.9	4.8	6.5	7.1
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.3	–9.0	–8.5	–7.4	–4.6	–7.1	–10.5	–9.7	–7.5	–6.0	–7.2	–5.0	–7.6	–7.4	–8.1	–10.0	–11.0	–9.8	–8.8	–9.3	–7.7	–8.3	–5.7	–6.8	–8.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.9	–3.6	–3.3	–3.3	–2.4	–0.9	–1.9	–3.9	–2.9	–3.3	–2.0	–2.3	–1.9	–2.0	–2.1	–2.2	–1.5	–3.0	–3.7	–2.0	–3.0	–4.4	–2.5	–3.5	–3.1
Heavily indebted
GDP growth	3.9	5.2	4.6	3.5	4.7	2.9	5.5	3.7	3.3	4.8	3.9	3.9	4.1	7.6	6.1	4.6	4.6	5.4	5.5	5.0	4.0	5.1	4.8	4.5	4.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.6	1.0	–0.2	2.3	0.8	–1.6	0.5	1.0	–1.7	0.8	0.7	–1.6	0.4	2.7	2.3	1.0	1.0	2.4	1.5	1.8	–0.8	3.2	0.0	1.2	0.9
Real per capita Investment growth	1.5	7.3	4.2	5.7	6.2	0.7	4.6	–2.4	–1.5	9.7	6.6	1.5	3.6	7.7	1.4	2.6	2.6	3.6	8.5	1.5	6.9	2.0	3.7	5.4	6.7
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.7	2.2	0.6	0.7	2.1	–0.7	0.5	–0.6	–1.2	2.6	0.9	–0.1	0.9	2.9	2.0	1.3	1.3	2.2	2.5	2.8	1.3	2.0	2.2	2.4	0.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	4.4	4.6	4.4	4.5	3.0	2.9	3.6	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.5	4.5	4.8	5.8	5.6	4.6	3.9	3.8	4.6	4.4
Reserves (percentage change)	29.2	9.6	13.9	18.2	9.3	7.9	–4.6	18.6	26.9	14.3	6.1	7.9	5.9	5.1	14.1	9.3	9.3	5.6	9.9	13.7	3.7	–2.6	8.0	18.7	9.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–3.2	–3.4	–5.3	–3.4	–1.9	–4.1	–5.1	–3.3	–3.6	–2.3	–4.5	–3.5	–3.3	–4.2	–5.1	–3.1	–3.1	–4.4	–3.6	–1.6	–2.1	–2.9	–3.5	–2.1	–3.0
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.8	–3.7	–4.2	–4.8	–4.2	–4.7	–4.4	–3.8	–4.9	–4.1	–3.0	–2.3	–1.5	–1.9	–2.1	–3.1	–3.1	–3.7	–3.4	–3.1	–3.9	–2.6	–3.5	–3.9	–3.1
No IMF program
GDP growth	4.2	4.2	3.2	3.5	4.0	3.8	3.3	3.1	2.1	2.3	3.5	3.3	4.0	3.0	3.1	3.6	3.5	2.9	2.5	3.1	4.2	3.9	3.9	3.4	3.5
Real per capita consumption growth	0.4	0.4	1.1	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.2	0.5	1.5	1.5	0.6	1.2	1.9	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.6	0.7	1.4	0.9	0.7	2.0	1.2	1.9	1.9
Real per capita Investment growth	1.2	1.2	0.1	–0.6	7.0	2.7	4.5	1.4	3.6	–2.8	2.4	1.9	4.4	0.3	1.2	3.7	4.4	2.5	2.2	1.9	4.6	1.2	3.0	3.3	2.5
Real per capita absorption growth	–0.3	–0.3	0.1	–0.5	1.3	2.9	1.3	1.0	2.4	0.7	1.2	2.3	2.6	2.2	1.5	1.4	1.5	0.6	1.6	1.2	3.1	1.2	2.2	2.5	0.8
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.4	2.4	2.1	2.4	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.2	2.7	2.9	2.7	2.9	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.6	2.1	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	–3.2	–3.2	–0.8	10.3	5.9	10.0	9.5	–3.6	6.9	12.5	7.4	11.1	5.8	3.3	15.0	13.9	3.9	1.2	8.5	10.3	4.3	9.1	3.9	7.1	7.5
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.4	–2.4	–5.8	–5.7	–4.6	–5.4	–8.4	–8.0	–7.9	–7.4	–6.0	–4.8	–7.1	–7.4	–7.4	–5.6	–5.2	–7.1	–6.4	–6.1	–4.3	–7.3	–8.1	–7.2	–7.1
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.0	–4.0	–3.0	–3.3	–3.1	–2.3	–2.4	–3.4	–3.3	–3.4	–2.0	–2.3	–1.8	–1.9	–2.6	–2.6	–2.0	–3.6	–3.7	–3.1	–2.9	–2.9	–2.3	–2.8	–2.8
Early IMF program
GDP growth	3.5	3.8	3.5	3.9	3.9	3.6	4.6	3.5	4.0	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.6	4.2	3.7	4.2	3.9	4.5	4.6	4.5	3.8	3.9	3.5	3.6	4.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.2	0.8	–0.1	0.0	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	0.5	–0.5	0.4	1.2	1.2	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.7	1.0	0.3	1.5	–0.2	0.8	1.8
Real per capita Investment growth	–1.9	3.6	–2.6	3.8	–1.4	2.2	3.0	–1.9	3.7	3.4	4.7	4.2	–2.5	1.6	–2.0	4.3	4.8	3.0	6.7	1.5	2.9	0.8	3.2	3.9	4.8
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.5	1.0	–0.8	0.6	–0.2	1.1	1.3	–0.4	1.5	1.1	1.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	–0.2	2.0	1.7	1.2	2.5	1.1	0.3	1.3	0.7	1.0	1.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.8	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.8	3.0	3.1	2.9	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.9	3.0
Reserves (percentage change)	16.8	5.2	5.4	8.4	8.3	10.2	5.7	12.6	11.9	8.7	10.2	9.6	3.8	10.8	6.3	14.1	7.9	9.0	13.5	10.5	7.4	3.8	11.5	15.6	9.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.7	–7.0	–6.2	–6.3	–4.5	–5.7	–7.4	–7.4	–7.0	–6.0	–6.2	–6.7	–7.2	–6.5	–6.3	–6.4	–6.0	–5.0	–5.0	–6.1	–6.2	–7.3	–6.8	–5.9	–5.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–2.8	–4.4	–4.2	–4.0	–2.9	–2.9	–3.3	–3.4	–3.0	–3.3	–3.6	–3.4	–3.5	–3.5	–3.1	–3.5	–3.7	–3.2	–3.0	–2.8	–2.8	–3.0	–3.9	–3.7	–3.0

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^{Table A2.4.}

Macroeconomic Impact of Shocks

(Annual percentage changes unless otherwise indicated; median values)

	External demand					Terms of trade					Climatic conditions					FDI					Aid
	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3	T–1	T₀	T+1	T+2	T+3
Whole sample
GDP growth	3.4	3.2	3.1	3.5	3.7	3.7	3.8	3.2	3.6	3.6	3.2	2.9	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.9	3.7	4.2	4.4	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.6	3.5	4.1
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.2	0.4	0.3	–0.1	0.8	1.2	0.7	0.7	1.5	0.9	0.1	–0.2	0.9	1.4	1.2	1.0	1.1	1.0	1.5	1.1	0.7	1.5	0.1	1.4	1.8
Real per capita investment growth	–0.6	2.4	–2.1	1.0	1.5	2.7	2.3	0.1	3.2	2.1	2.6	1.9	0.6	0.3	0.1	3.2	4.7	2.8	3.8	1.8	2.8	1.0	3.0	3.3	3.9
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.4	1.0	–0.3	0.4	0.8	2.1	0.9	0.6	1.6	0.4	0.7	0.6	1.3	1.0	0.9	1.6	1.6	0.9	2.0	0.9	0.9	1.2	0.8	1.4	1.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.5	2.3	2.2	2.4	2.5	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.7	2.1	2.3	2.5	2.4	2.7	2.3	2.5	2.6	2.6	2.8	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.8	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	9.6	5.2	4.8	9.9	8.9	9.1	6.2	6.0	9.9	8.5	7.9	8.9	5.8	6.1	9.5	13.9	7.5	6.8	11.1	10.9	4.8	5.4	9.6	12.8	8.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.3	–6.5	–5.9	–6.0	–4.5	–5.4	–7.1	–7.4	–7.0	–6.0	–5.9	–5.8	–6.1	–5.8	–6.0	–6.8	–6.1	–5.8	–5.6	–6.2	–5.8	–7.2	–6.8	–6.3	–5.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.9	–3.8	–3.9	–3.8	–3.2	–3.0	–3.1	–3.4	–3.2	–3.5	–3.0	–2.7	–2.7	–2.7	–3.0	–3.5	–3.5	–3.3	–3.3	–2.9	–2.9	–3.0	–3.3	–3.4	–2.9
Flexible exchange rate
GDP growth	4.8	3.7	4.2	4.5	3.9	4.1	4.6	4.1	4.8	4.9	3.2	3.6	4.5	4.0	4.0	4.1	3.9	5.1	4.6	4.4	4.4	4.0	4.6	3.7	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.3	1.1	1.3	1.4	0.4	0.8	0.8	0.3	2.5	2.9	–0.1	1.8	0.0	2.7	2.7	1.4	0.6	1.4	2.0	1.6	2.7	2.9	1.4	1.5	2.1
Real per capita investment growth	–2.3	3.9	2.1	3.9	0.8	0.0	3.1	1.6	4.2	2.1	6.7	2.4	5.9	0.2	1.7	4.2	3.2	3.1	1.8	1.9	3.4	3.9	2.1	2.9	5.6
Real per capita absorption growth	1.6	2.0	1.0	1.3	0.8	2.8	1.9	0.4	2.3	1.9	0.5	2.8	1.8	1.9	1.0	2.4	0.7	1.0	2.3	0.7	2.2	3.4	1.5	1.3	2.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.9	4.1	4.6	4.4	4.1	2.7	2.5	2.8	2.8	2.8	2.4	2.3	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.8	2.5	2.9	3.1	3.1	2.6	2.8	3.0	2.9	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	34.6	10.7	11.4	17.1	12.7	26.5	12.8	16.3	11.7	7.6	13.1	9.6	13.5	9.5	4.0	18.1	3.2	10.2	11.7	17.1	9.1	12.1	12.7	12.8	12.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–3.3	–3.4	–4.3	–4.9	–4.5	–5.1	–5.9	–5.5	–6.8	–5.6	–5.9	–6.1	–6.6	–5.6	–4.9	–6.0	–6.8	–5.8	–4.7	–5.4	–5.9	–7.0	–6.9	–6.7	–6.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.0	–4.6	–3.5	–3.9	–3.4	–2.3	–3.6	–2.6	–3.3	–3.4	–3.7	–3.3	–2.3	–3.2	–3.5	–3.5	–4.1	–3.3	–4.2	–2.9	–2.6	–2.8	–3.3	–2.7	–3.1
Fixed exchange rate
GDP growth	2.9	2.6	2.7	3.2	3.5	3.3	2.9	2.1	2.8	3.0	3.2	2.6	3.0	3.4	2.9	3.9	3.4	3.7	3.1	3.2	3.2	3.4	2.7	3.0	3.6
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.6	0.3	–0.2	–1.0	0.8	0.4	–0.1	0.2	0.0	–0.1	0.1	–1.8	0.6	1.3	0.6	0.2	0.3	0.3	1.1	–0.1	–0.6	1.0	–1.3	0.8	0.9
Real per capita investment growth	–1.1	1.0	–2.8	–0.3	1.0	3.1	1.9	–0.9	2.8	–0.2	2.5	1.3	–0.7	0.8	–0.7	2.3	3.8	2.0	2.3	–2.1	1.9	0.2	3.1	2.5	3.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	2.1	2.0	2.2	2.5	2.3	2.1	2.2	2.3	2.6	2.0	2.3	2.4	2.2	2.8	2.0	2.1	2.2	2.5	2.7	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.7	3.2
Reserves (percentage change)	5.0	2.5	1.7	6.3	3.9	5.5	5.6	4.2	8.6	7.3	2.2	7.0	3.4	3.6	10.0	9.0	7.8	6.3	13.5	7.2	1.6	1.7	8.1	11.4	5.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.1	–7.7	–6.8	–6.3	–4.8	–6.0	–8.4	–8.4	–7.1	–6.3	–6.2	–6.5	–6.9	–6.6	–6.7	–7.7	–6.5	–7.5	–7.0	–7.2	–6.2	–7.7	–7.1	–6.1	–6.4
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.8	–3.0	–3.8	–3.4	–3.2	–3.2	–3.1	–3.5	–3.0	–3.4	–2.7	–2.6	–2.7	–2.3	–2.8	–3.7	–2.9	–3.5	–2.4	–2.6	–2.9	–3.0	–3.2	–3.6	–2.6
Commodity exporters
GDP growth	3.3	2.1	1.5	1.5	1.8	3.5	3.7	3.0	3.5	2.6	2.8	1.2	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.9	4.3	4.3	3.8	4.1	3.1	3.4	2.5	3.5	2.9
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.6	–1.8	–0.2	–1.9	–2.0	1.7	0.1	1.3	–0.4	–1.8	–0.8	–1.7	–0.6	–0.3	–0.2	2.1	3.3	2.1	1.7	0.5	–0.7	0.7	–1.3	1.5	1.2
Real per capita investment growth	–2.4	–1.1	–7.6	–2.6	–2.8	4.0	–1.7	–6.2	4.0	0.9	–1.8	–2.8	–0.3	–0.4	–5.0	3.7	7.0	–3.2	–2.0	2.9	3.8	–1.7	1.1	0.6	6.2
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.0	–1.8	–2.7	–3.0	–2.0	2.6	–0.4	–1.3	0.8	–2.7	–0.3	–1.7	–1.8	–0.3	–0.4	0.8	2.1	0.6	2.1	0.7	–0.2	–1.7	–2.0	0.2	1.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	2.4	2.1	2.5	2.3	2.6	2.4	2.9	2.6	2.6	2.1	2.2	2.8	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.5	2.8	2.9	3.1	2.1	2.4	2.1	2.8	2.8
Reserves (percentage change)	1.8	7.9	–9.9	3.8	–7.3	–1.9	–6.6	12.9	8.3	2.9	5.1	5.2	2.7	7.3	7.4	11.6	5.4	4.0	12.5	10.7	0.5	0.5	7.9	21.3	7.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–11.1	–7.7	–8.1	–7.8	–5.9	–6.5	–7.6	–7.7	–7.9	–5.8	–6.3	–5.4	–3.9	–4.3	–5.6	–7.6	–7.3	–7.5	–7.4	–7.9	–6.7	–7.5	–6.0	–5.5	–5.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–5.0	–3.8	–4.2	–3.8	–3.3	–2.9	–3.6	–3.8	–4.0	–3.6	–4.0	–2.8	–3.3	–3.5	–3.3	–4.4	–4.0	–3.7	–4.3	–3.2	–3.3	–3.8	–3.4	–2.8	–3.3
Oil exporters
GDP growth	5.6	3.1	2.4	3.1	3.8	2.1	3.7	3.9	4.0	6.0	2.8	4.5	2.4	2.7	4.6	2.6	2.9	5.0	3.4	2.9	4.3	5.7	1.6	2.9	5.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.8	2.6	–1.0	1.4	–0.5	6.3	–0.5	2.1	2.0	3.5	–0.2	3.3	0.3	1.8	4.3	–3.9	6.8	–0.5	–5.4	–0.3	0.6	2.6	–0.7	–0.9	0.0
Real per capita investment growth	1.6	1.3	–6.4	3.5	4.2	1.1	0.2	4.5	6.8	2.0	1.1	2.1	9.0	–2.8	1.4	1.4	2.9	1.1	0.3	–2.8	0.9	5.6	0.8	4.8	3.6
Real per capita absorption growth	0.8	6.3	–1.6	1.0	0.6	6.0	0.7	3.6	2.5	–1.0	–0.4	1.4	1.6	0.7	–2.9	4.0	3.5	–0.4	–4.7	0.2	–0.3	3.1	1.3	0.7	0.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	1.3	1.0	1.3	1.9	2.0	1.6	1.1	1.5	1.3	1.5	1.3	1.8	1.8	2.5	1.1	1.4	1.7	1.6	2.6	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.7	2.3
Reserves (percentage change)	20.1	–4.4	–34.3	3.4	18.1	27.3	–12.7	–14.3	42.5	5.3	10.5	–6.5	13.1	15.9	26.3	10.5	25.5	7.4	6.8	10.7	–2.9	21.3	8.1	14.7	11.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	2.6	–2.9	–1.9	–3.8	–3.0	–1.7	–9.4	–15.9	–6.0	–4.6	–6.1	–8.7	–8.9	–8.3	–3.0	–5.1	–8.9	0.5	1.7	–0.4	–7.6	–8.5	–8.5	–7.0	–8.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.6	–4.9	–0.8	–3.3	–0.9	0.5	–7.8	–4.5	2.1	3.6	2.5	–0.9	–1.5	2.9	3.6	–5.2	–5.7	–2.4	2.4	–1.5	3.6	–0.7	–3.2	–3.5	–3.2
Commodity importers
GDP growth	4.2	3.3	2.4	3.7	3.7	3.7	4.4	3.7	3.8	3.7	3.0	3.4	3.3	3.9	4.1	3.9	4.2	4.4	3.8	3.3	4.4	4.1	3.9	3.7	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.3	0.6	–1.0	–0.3	1.9	4.1	1.2	0.5	0.4	–0.8	–0.3	–0.6	0.4	1.6	0.6	0.9	4.3	1.2	0.7	–0.3	–0.5	2.0	0.5	1.2	0.6
Real per capita investment growth	–1.8	1.6	–4.4	0.0	0.7	1.1	1.8	0.5	1.3	2.0	0.3	1.1	2.2	0.3	1.3	1.4	3.3	2.4	–2.3	0.8	–0.3	4.5	–0.4	2.6	3.9
Real per capita absorption growth	–0.5	0.9	–1.9	0.1	2.0	3.2	1.3	0.5	1.5	–0.5	–0.5	0.1	0.5	1.9	0.9	1.2	3.5	0.9	–0.4	0.2	–0.3	2.5	1.9	0.9	0.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.2	1.6	1.3	1.6	1.9	1.6	1.9	1.7	1.8	2.3	1.5	1.7	2.1	1.9	2.7	1.4	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.3	2.3	2.3	2.2	2.5	2.8
Reserves (percentage change)	13.4	–0.5	–13.7	10.9	12.9	10.9	8.5	4.2	15.8	9.2	6.1	12.2	14.5	6.8	7.6	12.8	7.1	6.2	8.4	8.3	7.2	8.3	11.0	14.7	7.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.6	–4.6	–4.8	–5.0	–3.9	–3.7	–7.6	–6.4	–6.1	–6.1	–4.8	–4.3	–3.1	–4.3	–4.3	–5.0	–5.4	–3.5	–5.8	–4.6	–4.2	–4.2	–7.0	–4.0	–4.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–2.2	–4.4	–2.5	–3.8	–2.8	–1.9	–3.0	–3.4	–2.7	–2.5	–2.4	–1.7	–2.0	–1.5	–2.6	–3.7	–3.8	–3.0	–2.0	–1.6	–1.5	–1.6	–3.1	–3.9	–3.2
Islands
GDP growth	1.7	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.0	3.1	2.9	2.7	2.8	2.8	3.5	2.7	3.2	2.3	2.6	3.0	2.1	3.7	2.3	3.0	2.6	2.7	3.1	2.5	2.7
Real per capita consumption growth	–0.5	0.9	0.8	0.8	0.8	0.7	1.7	0.2	0.8	2.6	0.5	1.2	0.8	1.7	2.1	1.1	0.2	–0.1	1.4	1.8	–0.3	1.2	0.8	1.9	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	0.9	0.0	–2.3	–1.1	–0.2	1.6	6.0	–1.9	4.6	–0.6	0.9	1.3	3.7	0.6	–0.7	3.2	2.3	3.2	1.0	0.2	2.8	0.0	2.3	3.2	4.6
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.4	0.7	–0.1	0.7	0.5	2.9	2.5	–0.7	1.5	2.1	0.7	2.3	1.3	1.3	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.0	1.9	1.8	2.3	–0.4	0.3	2.5	2.1
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	2.4	3.0	2.6	3.1	2.6	2.5	2.7	2.5	2.9	2.1	2.3	2.6	2.7	2.9	2.0	2.0	2.1	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.9	2.7	3.0
Reserves (percentage change)	5.6	6.0	11.5	14.7	1.5	10.1	10.1	3.8	8.4	12.0	5.5	12.2	7.1	5.9	10.2	12.8	2.1	8.0	10.4	8.1	7.2	5.9	4.8	6.5	7.1
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.3	–9.0	–8.5	–7.4	–4.6	–7.1	–10.5	–9.7	–7.5	–6.0	–7.2	–5.0	–7.6	–7.4	–8.1	–10.0	–11.0	–9.8	–8.8	–9.3	–7.7	–8.3	–5.7	–6.8	–8.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–3.9	–3.6	–3.3	–3.3	–2.4	–0.9	–1.9	–3.9	–2.9	–3.3	–2.0	–2.3	–1.9	–2.0	–2.1	–2.2	–1.5	–3.0	–3.7	–2.0	–3.0	–4.4	–2.5	–3.5	–3.1
Heavily indebted
GDP growth	3.9	5.2	4.6	3.5	4.7	2.9	5.5	3.7	3.3	4.8	3.9	3.9	4.1	7.6	6.1	4.6	4.6	5.4	5.5	5.0	4.0	5.1	4.8	4.5	4.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.6	1.0	–0.2	2.3	0.8	–1.6	0.5	1.0	–1.7	0.8	0.7	–1.6	0.4	2.7	2.3	1.0	1.0	2.4	1.5	1.8	–0.8	3.2	0.0	1.2	0.9
Real per capita Investment growth	1.5	7.3	4.2	5.7	6.2	0.7	4.6	–2.4	–1.5	9.7	6.6	1.5	3.6	7.7	1.4	2.6	2.6	3.6	8.5	1.5	6.9	2.0	3.7	5.4	6.7
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.7	2.2	0.6	0.7	2.1	–0.7	0.5	–0.6	–1.2	2.6	0.9	–0.1	0.9	2.9	2.0	1.3	1.3	2.2	2.5	2.8	1.3	2.0	2.2	2.4	0.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	4.4	4.6	4.4	4.5	3.0	2.9	3.6	4.5	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.9	4.8	4.8	4.5	4.5	4.8	5.8	5.6	4.6	3.9	3.8	4.6	4.4
Reserves (percentage change)	29.2	9.6	13.9	18.2	9.3	7.9	–4.6	18.6	26.9	14.3	6.1	7.9	5.9	5.1	14.1	9.3	9.3	5.6	9.9	13.7	3.7	–2.6	8.0	18.7	9.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–3.2	–3.4	–5.3	–3.4	–1.9	–4.1	–5.1	–3.3	–3.6	–2.3	–4.5	–3.5	–3.3	–4.2	–5.1	–3.1	–3.1	–4.4	–3.6	–1.6	–2.1	–2.9	–3.5	–2.1	–3.0
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.8	–3.7	–4.2	–4.8	–4.2	–4.7	–4.4	–3.8	–4.9	–4.1	–3.0	–2.3	–1.5	–1.9	–2.1	–3.1	–3.1	–3.7	–3.4	–3.1	–3.9	–2.6	–3.5	–3.9	–3.1
No IMF program
GDP growth	4.2	4.2	3.2	3.5	4.0	3.8	3.3	3.1	2.1	2.3	3.5	3.3	4.0	3.0	3.1	3.6	3.5	2.9	2.5	3.1	4.2	3.9	3.9	3.4	3.5
Real per capita consumption growth	0.4	0.4	1.1	0.6	1.5	1.7	1.2	0.5	1.5	1.5	0.6	1.2	1.9	1.7	1.8	0.2	0.6	0.7	1.4	0.9	0.7	2.0	1.2	1.9	1.9
Real per capita Investment growth	1.2	1.2	0.1	–0.6	7.0	2.7	4.5	1.4	3.6	–2.8	2.4	1.9	4.4	0.3	1.2	3.7	4.4	2.5	2.2	1.9	4.6	1.2	3.0	3.3	2.5
Real per capita absorption growth	–0.3	–0.3	0.1	–0.5	1.3	2.9	1.3	1.0	2.4	0.7	1.2	2.3	2.6	2.2	1.5	1.4	1.5	0.6	1.6	1.2	3.1	1.2	2.2	2.5	0.8
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.4	2.4	2.1	2.4	2.3	2.3	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.5	2.2	2.7	2.9	2.7	2.9	1.9	1.8	1.7	1.6	2.1	2.6	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.9
Reserves (percentage change)	–3.2	–3.2	–0.8	10.3	5.9	10.0	9.5	–3.6	6.9	12.5	7.4	11.1	5.8	3.3	15.0	13.9	3.9	1.2	8.5	10.3	4.3	9.1	3.9	7.1	7.5
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.4	–2.4	–5.8	–5.7	–4.6	–5.4	–8.4	–8.0	–7.9	–7.4	–6.0	–4.8	–7.1	–7.4	–7.4	–5.6	–5.2	–7.1	–6.4	–6.1	–4.3	–7.3	–8.1	–7.2	–7.1
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–4.0	–4.0	–3.0	–3.3	–3.1	–2.3	–2.4	–3.4	–3.3	–3.4	–2.0	–2.3	–1.8	–1.9	–2.6	–2.6	–2.0	–3.6	–3.7	–3.1	–2.9	–2.9	–2.3	–2.8	–2.8
Early IMF program
GDP growth	3.5	3.8	3.5	3.9	3.9	3.6	4.6	3.5	4.0	3.9	3.8	3.8	3.6	4.2	3.7	4.2	3.9	4.5	4.6	4.5	3.8	3.9	3.5	3.6	4.4
Real per capita consumption growth	–1.2	0.8	–0.1	0.0	0.6	0.8	0.4	0.6	1.6	1.1	0.5	–0.5	0.4	1.2	1.2	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.7	1.0	0.3	1.5	–0.2	0.8	1.8
Real per capita Investment growth	–1.9	3.6	–2.6	3.8	–1.4	2.2	3.0	–1.9	3.7	3.4	4.7	4.2	–2.5	1.6	–2.0	4.3	4.8	3.0	6.7	1.5	2.9	0.8	3.2	3.9	4.8
Real per capita absorption growth	–1.5	1.0	–0.8	0.6	–0.2	1.1	1.3	–0.4	1.5	1.1	1.1	0.5	1.0	0.8	–0.2	2.0	1.7	1.2	2.5	1.1	0.3	1.3	0.7	1.0	1.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	2.6	2.5	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.6	2.4	2.4	2.4	2.8	2.0	2.4	2.3	2.4	2.6	2.7	2.8	3.0	3.1	2.9	2.4	2.6	2.8	2.9	3.0
Reserves (percentage change)	16.8	5.2	5.4	8.4	8.3	10.2	5.7	12.6	11.9	8.7	10.2	9.6	3.8	10.8	6.3	14.1	7.9	9.0	13.5	10.5	7.4	3.8	11.5	15.6	9.6
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–5.7	–7.0	–6.2	–6.3	–4.5	–5.7	–7.4	–7.4	–7.0	–6.0	–6.2	–6.7	–7.2	–6.5	–6.3	–6.4	–6.0	–5.0	–5.0	–6.1	–6.2	–7.3	–6.8	–5.9	–5.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–2.8	–4.4	–4.2	–4.0	–2.9	–2.9	–3.3	–3.4	–3.0	–3.3	–3.6	–3.4	–3.5	–3.5	–3.1	–3.5	–3.7	–3.2	–3.0	–2.8	–2.8	–3.0	–3.9	–3.7	–3.0

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010; and IMF staff calculations. Note: FDI: foreign direct investment.

^{Table A2.5.}

SDR Allocations

(In millions of SDRs)

Source: IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/sdr/proposal/2009/0709.htm.

^{^*}Countries that will receive allocations for the first time as a result of both the General and Special SDR Allocation.

^{Table A2.5.}

SDR Allocations

(In millions of SDRs)

	Member country	SDR allocation
	Afghanistan, Islamic State of	128.6
*	Armenia	88
	Bangladesh	463.3
	Benin	49.8
*	Bhutan	6
	Bolivia	137.4
	Burkina Faso	48.2
	Burundi	60.2
	Cambodia	68.5
	Cameroon	152.8
	Cape Verde	8.5
	Central African Republic	44
	Chad	44.2
	Comoros	7.8
	Congo, Dem. Republic of	424.5
	Congo, Republic of	70
	Cote d’lvoire	273.1
	Djibouti	14
	Dominica	7.2
*	Eritrea	15.2
	Ethiopia	116.8
	Gambia, The	24.6
*	Georgia	144
	Ghana	290.9
	Grenada	10.2
	Guinea	84.9
	Guinea-Bissau	12.4
	Guyana	72.6
	Haiti	64.8
	Honduras	104.8
	Kenya	222.7
*	Kiribati	5.3
*	Kyrgyz	84.7
	Lao, People’s Dem. Republic	41.3
	Lesotho	29.1
	Liberia	103
	Madagascar	97.8
	Malawi	55.4
	Maldives	7.4
	Mali	73.5
	Mauritania	51.9
*	Moldova	117.7
*	Mongolia	48.8
*	Mozambique	108.8
	Myanmar	202.3
	Nepal	60
	Nicaragua	105.1
	Niger	53.5
	Nigeria	1,518.20
	Papua New Guinea	116.2
	Rwanda	63.1
	Samoa	9.9
	Sao Tome and Principe	6.5
	Senegal	130.3
	Sierra Leone	82.1
	Solomon Islands	9.3
	St. Lucia	13.8
	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	7.6
	Sudan	141.9
*	Tajikistan	82.1
	Tanzania	159.1
*	Timor-Leste	7.7
	Togo	59.4
*	Tonga	6.6
	Uganda	143.7
*	Uzbekistan	262.8
*	Vanuatu	16.3
	Vietnam	267.1
	Yemen, Republic of	203.5
	Zambia	400.8
	Zimbabwe	328.4

Source: IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/sdr/proposal/2009/0709.htm.

^{^*}Countries that will receive allocations for the first time as a result of both the General and Special SDR Allocation.

^{Table A2.5.}

SDR Allocations

(In millions of SDRs)

	Member country	SDR allocation
	Afghanistan, Islamic State of	128.6
*	Armenia	88
	Bangladesh	463.3
	Benin	49.8
*	Bhutan	6
	Bolivia	137.4
	Burkina Faso	48.2
	Burundi	60.2
	Cambodia	68.5
	Cameroon	152.8
	Cape Verde	8.5
	Central African Republic	44
	Chad	44.2
	Comoros	7.8
	Congo, Dem. Republic of	424.5
	Congo, Republic of	70
	Cote d’lvoire	273.1
	Djibouti	14
	Dominica	7.2
*	Eritrea	15.2
	Ethiopia	116.8
	Gambia, The	24.6
*	Georgia	144
	Ghana	290.9
	Grenada	10.2
	Guinea	84.9
	Guinea-Bissau	12.4
	Guyana	72.6
	Haiti	64.8
	Honduras	104.8
	Kenya	222.7
*	Kiribati	5.3
*	Kyrgyz	84.7
	Lao, People’s Dem. Republic	41.3
	Lesotho	29.1
	Liberia	103
	Madagascar	97.8
	Malawi	55.4
	Maldives	7.4
	Mali	73.5
	Mauritania	51.9
*	Moldova	117.7
*	Mongolia	48.8
*	Mozambique	108.8
	Myanmar	202.3
	Nepal	60
	Nicaragua	105.1
	Niger	53.5
	Nigeria	1,518.20
	Papua New Guinea	116.2
	Rwanda	63.1
	Samoa	9.9
	Sao Tome and Principe	6.5
	Senegal	130.3
	Sierra Leone	82.1
	Solomon Islands	9.3
	St. Lucia	13.8
	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	7.6
	Sudan	141.9
*	Tajikistan	82.1
	Tanzania	159.1
*	Timor-Leste	7.7
	Togo	59.4
*	Tonga	6.6
	Uganda	143.7
*	Uzbekistan	262.8
*	Vanuatu	16.3
	Vietnam	267.1
	Yemen, Republic of	203.5
	Zambia	400.8
	Zimbabwe	328.4

Source: IMF, http://www.imf.org/external/np/tre/sdr/proposal/2009/0709.htm.

^{^*}Countries that will receive allocations for the first time as a result of both the General and Special SDR Allocation.

^{Table A2.6.}

Macroeconomic Impact of the Crisis

(Percent annual change unless other wise indicated; median values)

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2011; and IMF staff calculations.

^{Table A2.6.}

Macroeconomic Impact of the Crisis

(Percent annual change unless other wise indicated; median values)

	Pooled data				Reserves ≤ 3 months of imports				Reserves > 3 months of imports
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2007	2008	2009	2010	2007	2008	2009	2010
Whole sample
GDP growth	5.8	5.4	3.3	4.9	6.0	5.2	3.1	4.7	5.8	5.6	3.3	4.9
Real per capita consumption growth	4.1	4.2	0.7	2.2	6.3	4.2	–0.9	1.9	3.9	4.2	0.7	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	5.0	5.0	3.0	5.7	2.8	11.5	–6.1	3.5	5.7	5.0	3.7	6.7
Real per capita absorption growth	4.2	4.9	0.2	3.5	2.9	4.4	–0.4	2.8	4.3	5.0	0.3	3.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	3.4	5.0	4.7	2.5	2.1	2.9	2.8	5.1	4.1	5.8	5.3
Reserves (percentage change)	28.2	4.0	22.0	5.9	18.0	9.9	33.8	16.5	30.1	3.2	20.5	4.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.0	–11.1	–8.5	–8.0	–11.8	–16.6	–11.0	–9.2	–6.9	–9.6	–7.7	–7.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.3	–1.4	–3.8	–3.1	–2.6	–2.9	–4.5	–2.6	–0.4	–0.6	–3.3	–3.5
Commodity exporters
GDP growth	6.0	5.4	3.3	5.6	5.6	4.8	3.3	6.4	6.6	5.9	3.3	5.5
Real per capita consumption growth	4.2	5.8	1.1	1.7	6.5	4.2	2.4	1.5	3.3	6.4	–0.2	1.8
Real per capita investment growth	3.7	3.5	1.4	6.2	–2.2	3.0	–0.2	6.7	4.8	3.6	2.9	5.7
Real per capita absorption growth	2.8	5.5	0.7	4.3	–5.8	4.7	2.5	3.4	4.3	6.3	0.1	6.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	2.7	5.5	5.2	1.1	0.8	1.5	2.0	5.2	4.5	6.4	5.9
Reserves (percentage change)	22.2	0.5	40.4	10.4	11.3	0.5	57.3	19.6	30.8	0.1	31.9	8.1
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.9	–11.9	–9.0	–9.7	–7.2	–13.1	–10.5	–6.8	–6.2	–11.7	–8.0	–10.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.6	–2.8	–3.5	–1.9	–3.5	–3.3	–4.2	–2.3	1.0	–2.0	–3.2	–1.0
Oil exporters
GDP Growth	5.0	5.6	6.3	6.8	9.7	6.6	5.8	4.9	3.3	5.4	6.7	7.7
Real per capita consumption growth	9.5	2.2	2.6	3.1	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	8.9	2.2	2.6	3.1
Real per capita investment growth	2.8	–5.0	10.8	–3.3	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	1.0	–5.0	10.8	–3.3
Real per capita absorption growth	7.7	0.9	3.1	5.3	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	7.1	0.9	3.1	5.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	5.7	6.0	5.8	6.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	0.9	5.8	8.3	8.3	6.8
Reserves (percentage change)	18.0	4.1	–16.3	–9.2	–18.6	1.5	–24.6	–14.1	19.3	5.0	–15.7	–4.3
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.9	0.5	–9.6	–0.9	–12.5	–9.0	–12.4	–8.5	1.1	1.2	–8.9	2.7
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)
Commodity importers
GDP Growth	5.3	5.0	3.8	5.8	6.8	6.3	3.8	5.6	4.0	5.0	3.5	5.8
Real per capita consumption growth	3.1	0.3	1.0	0.3	3.9	–1.2	2.6	0.1	3.1	0.6	–3.0	1.6
Real per capita investment growth	3.8	1.3	–0.2	4.6	3.3	3.0	–6.1	4.6	5.1	1.3	8.8	5.7
Real per capita absorption growth	5.9	1.5	0.3	2.2	0.5	4.1	0.8	1.7	6.5	1.5	0.0	3.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	5.7	4.2	5.6	6.0	1.1	1.1	1.5	2.0	7.1	6.3	7.8	7.3
Reserves (percentage change)	23.7	4.7	13.5	9.9	5.5	9.1	17.2	27.2	26.5	4.7	10.0	6.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.6	–6.6	–9.0	–5.0	–10.5	–12.4	–11.4	–6.3	–2.6	–1.5	–8.9	–4.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	1.4	4.5	–7.3	–3.0	–5.4	–1.4	–4.6	–1.9	3.1	4.6	–10.1	–4.0
Islands
GDP Growth	5.8	5.0	–0.3	1.8	6.1	0.8	–3.6	–2.0	5.8	5.6	1.8	2.2
Real per capita consumption growth	4.4	4.7	–1.0	6.4	11.3	8.8	–2.6	10.5	3.8	2.6	0.7	2.2
Real per capita investment growth	–0.5	9.3	–12.8	–5.4	–0.7	31.8	–38.5	–22.8	2.3	5.0	–11.2	7.4
Real per capita absorption growth	3.7	5.3	–3.2	5.6	10.6	13.0	–7.6	4.8	3.0	4.4	–3.1	6.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.8	3.0	4.0	4.5	2.6	2.3	3.3	3.2	5.1	3.7	5.1	5.0
Reserves (percentage change)	19.6	–4.6	20.3	5.1	28.7	–3.9	14.5	29.4	16.6	–4.8	25.4	3.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–14.7	–19.3	–15.3	–16.7	–29.3	–27.8	–20.7	–16.7	–13.8	–11.7	–11.1	–11.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.0	–1.0	–4.4	–1.4	–4.4	–4.4	–5.2	–2.5	1.1	1.5	0.8	–0.7
Heavily indebted
GDP Growth	5.8	4.9	3.1	4.7	6.0	4.8	2.8	4.6	5.8	5.4	3.1	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	4.5	4.2	–0.2	2.2	6.1	3.6	–1.7	1.7	4.4	4.3	–0.1	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	5.1	5.0	1.6	5.6	2.8	7.9	–12.1	3.8	5.8	5.0	3.7	6.5
Real per capita absorption growth	4.3	4.9	–0.1	3.5	1.9	4.1	–0.8	2.2	4.7	5.1	–0.1	3.7
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.7	3.1	4.9	4.6	2.5	2.3	3.0	3.0	5.1	3.7	5.3	5.0
Reserves (percentage change)	24.7	3.7	21.0	5.8	18.0	11.4	32.1	13.4	28.2	1.8	20.1	4.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.4	–11.3	–9.0	–8.5	–12.5	–17.5	–11.2	–9.8	–7.0	–11.1	–8.4	–8.0
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	0.2	–1.0	–3.8	–3.6	–2.7	–1.9	–4.3	–5.9	1.3	–0.2	–2.6	–2.7
No IMF program
GDP Growth	6.3	5.0	3.4	4.1	4.6	0.1	2.3	2.9	6.6	6.0	4.2	4.6
Real per capita consumption growth	3.7	5.9	2.2	3.0	4.9	6.3	0.8	1.7	3.6	5.9	2.2	3.0
Real per capita investment growth	4.9	3.8	5.5	5.9	2.5	8.1	–3.1	0.3	7.7	3.8	5.5	5.9
Real per capita absorption growth	6.6	5.4	3.7	3.9	3.1	6.9	–0.4	4.1	5.3	5.4	3.7	3.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.2	3.7	5.0	4.5	2.0	1.8	1.9	1.9	5.3	4.3	6.5	5.2
Reserves (percentage change)	24.4	–1.1	23.0	5.1	11.7	–5.6	12.5	–7.9	37.0	4.2	26.2	9.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.6	–11.1	–8.2	–8.5	–21.9	–25.5	–19.4	–17.5	–3.2	–4.2	–4.3	–4.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.9	–1.3	–4.3	–3.1	–2.6	–2.8	–4.6	–3.0	–0.2	–0.6	–3.3	–3.6
IMF program
GDP Growth	5.5	5.4	3.3	4.5	5.3	5.2	3.1	4.4	5.4	5.4	3.4	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	4.2	4.1	–0.8	1.9	4.7	1.4	–2.7	1.5	4.1	4.2	0.0	2.2
Real per capita investment growth	4.0	5.1	3.1	5.7	4.3	17.6	–6.1	3.5	4.6	5.0	6.6	6.1
Real per capita absorption growth	3.3	4.6	0.0	3.4	1.8	3.9	–1.2	2.8	3.4	5.0	0.0	3.5
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.1	3.5	5.1	4.7	2.6	2.4	3.4	3.6	5.1	4.2	5.8	5.4
Reserves (percentage change)	24.5	6.0	20.3	4.1	27.6	15.7	34.9	10.9	24.5	3.2	19.2	1.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.1	–11.1	–8.9	–8.1	–11.9	–14.4	–10.0	–9.2	–6.9	–11.1	–8.5	–7.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.7	–1.0	–3.8	–3.6	–3.9	–1.5	–4.1	–4.1	1.0	0.3	–3.1	–3.1

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2011; and IMF staff calculations.

^{Table A2.6.}

Macroeconomic Impact of the Crisis

(Percent annual change unless other wise indicated; median values)

	Pooled data				Reserves ≤ 3 months of imports				Reserves > 3 months of imports
	2007	2008	2009	2010	2007	2008	2009	2010	2007	2008	2009	2010
Whole sample
GDP growth	5.8	5.4	3.3	4.9	6.0	5.2	3.1	4.7	5.8	5.6	3.3	4.9
Real per capita consumption growth	4.1	4.2	0.7	2.2	6.3	4.2	–0.9	1.9	3.9	4.2	0.7	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	5.0	5.0	3.0	5.7	2.8	11.5	–6.1	3.5	5.7	5.0	3.7	6.7
Real per capita absorption growth	4.2	4.9	0.2	3.5	2.9	4.4	–0.4	2.8	4.3	5.0	0.3	3.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	3.4	5.0	4.7	2.5	2.1	2.9	2.8	5.1	4.1	5.8	5.3
Reserves (percentage change)	28.2	4.0	22.0	5.9	18.0	9.9	33.8	16.5	30.1	3.2	20.5	4.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.0	–11.1	–8.5	–8.0	–11.8	–16.6	–11.0	–9.2	–6.9	–9.6	–7.7	–7.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.3	–1.4	–3.8	–3.1	–2.6	–2.9	–4.5	–2.6	–0.4	–0.6	–3.3	–3.5
Commodity exporters
GDP growth	6.0	5.4	3.3	5.6	5.6	4.8	3.3	6.4	6.6	5.9	3.3	5.5
Real per capita consumption growth	4.2	5.8	1.1	1.7	6.5	4.2	2.4	1.5	3.3	6.4	–0.2	1.8
Real per capita investment growth	3.7	3.5	1.4	6.2	–2.2	3.0	–0.2	6.7	4.8	3.6	2.9	5.7
Real per capita absorption growth	2.8	5.5	0.7	4.3	–5.8	4.7	2.5	3.4	4.3	6.3	0.1	6.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.0	2.7	5.5	5.2	1.1	0.8	1.5	2.0	5.2	4.5	6.4	5.9
Reserves (percentage change)	22.2	0.5	40.4	10.4	11.3	0.5	57.3	19.6	30.8	0.1	31.9	8.1
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.9	–11.9	–9.0	–9.7	–7.2	–13.1	–10.5	–6.8	–6.2	–11.7	–8.0	–10.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.6	–2.8	–3.5	–1.9	–3.5	–3.3	–4.2	–2.3	1.0	–2.0	–3.2	–1.0
Oil exporters
GDP Growth	5.0	5.6	6.3	6.8	9.7	6.6	5.8	4.9	3.3	5.4	6.7	7.7
Real per capita consumption growth	9.5	2.2	2.6	3.1	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	8.9	2.2	2.6	3.1
Real per capita investment growth	2.8	–5.0	10.8	–3.3	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	1.0	–5.0	10.8	–3.3
Real per capita absorption growth	7.7	0.9	3.1	5.3	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.	7.1	0.9	3.1	5.3
Reserves (in months of imports)	5.7	6.0	5.8	6.6	1.5	1.3	1.2	0.9	5.8	8.3	8.3	6.8
Reserves (percentage change)	18.0	4.1	–16.3	–9.2	–18.6	1.5	–24.6	–14.1	19.3	5.0	–15.7	–4.3
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–2.9	0.5	–9.6	–0.9	–12.5	–9.0	–12.4	–8.5	1.1	1.2	–8.9	2.7
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)
Commodity importers
GDP Growth	5.3	5.0	3.8	5.8	6.8	6.3	3.8	5.6	4.0	5.0	3.5	5.8
Real per capita consumption growth	3.1	0.3	1.0	0.3	3.9	–1.2	2.6	0.1	3.1	0.6	–3.0	1.6
Real per capita investment growth	3.8	1.3	–0.2	4.6	3.3	3.0	–6.1	4.6	5.1	1.3	8.8	5.7
Real per capita absorption growth	5.9	1.5	0.3	2.2	0.5	4.1	0.8	1.7	6.5	1.5	0.0	3.6
Reserves (in months of imports)	5.7	4.2	5.6	6.0	1.1	1.1	1.5	2.0	7.1	6.3	7.8	7.3
Reserves (percentage change)	23.7	4.7	13.5	9.9	5.5	9.1	17.2	27.2	26.5	4.7	10.0	6.7
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–6.6	–6.6	–9.0	–5.0	–10.5	–12.4	–11.4	–6.3	–2.6	–1.5	–8.9	–4.3
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	1.4	4.5	–7.3	–3.0	–5.4	–1.4	–4.6	–1.9	3.1	4.6	–10.1	–4.0
Islands
GDP Growth	5.8	5.0	–0.3	1.8	6.1	0.8	–3.6	–2.0	5.8	5.6	1.8	2.2
Real per capita consumption growth	4.4	4.7	–1.0	6.4	11.3	8.8	–2.6	10.5	3.8	2.6	0.7	2.2
Real per capita investment growth	–0.5	9.3	–12.8	–5.4	–0.7	31.8	–38.5	–22.8	2.3	5.0	–11.2	7.4
Real per capita absorption growth	3.7	5.3	–3.2	5.6	10.6	13.0	–7.6	4.8	3.0	4.4	–3.1	6.4
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.8	3.0	4.0	4.5	2.6	2.3	3.3	3.2	5.1	3.7	5.1	5.0
Reserves (percentage change)	19.6	–4.6	20.3	5.1	28.7	–3.9	14.5	29.4	16.6	–4.8	25.4	3.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–14.7	–19.3	–15.3	–16.7	–29.3	–27.8	–20.7	–16.7	–13.8	–11.7	–11.1	–11.8
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–1.0	–1.0	–4.4	–1.4	–4.4	–4.4	–5.2	–2.5	1.1	1.5	0.8	–0.7
Heavily indebted
GDP Growth	5.8	4.9	3.1	4.7	6.0	4.8	2.8	4.6	5.8	5.4	3.1	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	4.5	4.2	–0.2	2.2	6.1	3.6	–1.7	1.7	4.4	4.3	–0.1	2.3
Real per capita investment growth	5.1	5.0	1.6	5.6	2.8	7.9	–12.1	3.8	5.8	5.0	3.7	6.5
Real per capita absorption growth	4.3	4.9	–0.1	3.5	1.9	4.1	–0.8	2.2	4.7	5.1	–0.1	3.7
Reserves (in months of imports)	3.7	3.1	4.9	4.6	2.5	2.3	3.0	3.0	5.1	3.7	5.3	5.0
Reserves (percentage change)	24.7	3.7	21.0	5.8	18.0	11.4	32.1	13.4	28.2	1.8	20.1	4.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.4	–11.3	–9.0	–8.5	–12.5	–17.5	–11.2	–9.8	–7.0	–11.1	–8.4	–8.0
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	0.2	–1.0	–3.8	–3.6	–2.7	–1.9	–4.3	–5.9	1.3	–0.2	–2.6	–2.7
No IMF program
GDP Growth	6.3	5.0	3.4	4.1	4.6	0.1	2.3	2.9	6.6	6.0	4.2	4.6
Real per capita consumption growth	3.7	5.9	2.2	3.0	4.9	6.3	0.8	1.7	3.6	5.9	2.2	3.0
Real per capita investment growth	4.9	3.8	5.5	5.9	2.5	8.1	–3.1	0.3	7.7	3.8	5.5	5.9
Real per capita absorption growth	6.6	5.4	3.7	3.9	3.1	6.9	–0.4	4.1	5.3	5.4	3.7	3.9
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.2	3.7	5.0	4.5	2.0	1.8	1.9	1.9	5.3	4.3	6.5	5.2
Reserves (percentage change)	24.4	–1.1	23.0	5.1	11.7	–5.6	12.5	–7.9	37.0	4.2	26.2	9.4
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.6	–11.1	–8.2	–8.5	–21.9	–25.5	–19.4	–17.5	–3.2	–4.2	–4.3	–4.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.9	–1.3	–4.3	–3.1	–2.6	–2.8	–4.6	–3.0	–0.2	–0.6	–3.3	–3.6
IMF program
GDP Growth	5.5	5.4	3.3	4.5	5.3	5.2	3.1	4.4	5.4	5.4	3.4	4.8
Real per capita consumption growth	4.2	4.1	–0.8	1.9	4.7	1.4	–2.7	1.5	4.1	4.2	0.0	2.2
Real per capita investment growth	4.0	5.1	3.1	5.7	4.3	17.6	–6.1	3.5	4.6	5.0	6.6	6.1
Real per capita absorption growth	3.3	4.6	0.0	3.4	1.8	3.9	–1.2	2.8	3.4	5.0	0.0	3.5
Reserves (in months of imports)	4.1	3.5	5.1	4.7	2.6	2.4	3.4	3.6	5.1	4.2	5.8	5.4
Reserves (percentage change)	24.5	6.0	20.3	4.1	27.6	15.7	34.9	10.9	24.5	3.2	19.2	1.9
Current account (in percent of GDP)	–8.1	–11.1	–8.9	–8.1	–11.9	–14.4	–10.0	–9.2	–6.9	–11.1	–8.5	–7.9
Fiscal balance (in percent of GDP)	–0.7	–1.0	–3.8	–3.6	–3.9	–1.5	–4.1	–4.1	1.0	0.3	–3.1	–3.1

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, September 2011; and IMF staff calculations.

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves

This appendix discusses data sources for the regressions reported in Chapter 5, as well as the calibration exercise in Chapter 6, and reports robustness checks for the regression results.

Data

Growth variables

The growth rates of real GDP per capita, real consumption per capita, and real absorption per capita are all taken from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. Real absorption was constructed using the data on real consumption and investment from the WEO database.

External shocks

External shock variables, namely, terms of trade, external demand, FDI, aid, remittances, and climatic events, are taken from the event study analysis discussed in Chapter 4. See Appendix 1 for data sources for these variables.

Fiscal policy

Four variables were considered as fiscal policy variables: government expenditure to GDP, government revenue to GDP, fiscal (overall) balance to GDP, and nominal revenue growth. Government expenditure, revenue, and overall balance, as well as nominal GDP, are all taken from the WEO database.

Monetary policy

Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and broad money growth rate were considered as monetary policy variables. Data on CPI inflation and broad money are taken from the WEO database.

External vulnerability

Two variables, current account deficit to GDP and external debt to GDP, were considered to capture external vulnerability. Current account deficit and external debt are both taken from the WEO database.

Openness

Trade openness was measured by the share of exports and imports in GDP, with data on exports and imports taken from the WEO database. Financial openness was also considered, using the share of foreign assets and liabilities in GDP. The data on the stock of foreign assets and liabilities are taken from Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2007).

Financial development

Broad money to GDP and private credit to GDP were considered to measure financial sector development. The data on broad money and private credit are taken from the WEO database.

Exchange rate regime

Various measures of exchange rate regimes, both de facto and de jure regimes, were considered in the regression analysis, including Ghosh, Gulde, and Wolf (2002), Reinhart and Rogoff (2004), and the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) database (www.imfareaer.org).

Institutions

CPIA index was used to measure institutional quality. The data on CPIA are taken from the World Bank at http://www.worldbank.org/ida/IRAI-2011.html.

International reserves

The data on international reserves are taken from the WEO database. Both import coverage and the share of reserves in GDP were considered.

IMF program

The IMF program dummy was taken from Dreher (2006) and updated using the IMF database.

Robustness Analysis

Table A3.1. reports the robustness of the probit regression across various subsamples. We find that the reserves variable remains highly significant and of the expected sign, except when the sample is reduced substantially by dropping African countries. Table A3.2. further reports the probit estimation results using real consumption per capita drops as the relevant dependent variable. The results are similar to those for absorption drops: The coefficients on reserves are statistically significant and of the expected sign, and broadly similar across specifications and estimation methods. These results are also robust across various subsamples.

^{Table A3.1.}

Absorption Drop Probit Regression: Robustness Check

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR:Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; and WHD:Western Hemisphere. CPIA: Country Policy and Institutional Assessment.

^{Table A3.1.}

Absorption Drop Probit Regression: Robustness Check

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Longer sample period (1980-2009)	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0944***	–0.1196	–0.0902***	–0.0906***	–0.1028***	–0.0902**
	(0.0285)	(0.0872)	(0.0344)	(0.0339)	(0.0350)	(0.0358)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–0.4304***	–0.8172***	–0.3549**	–0.3610***	–0.2530*	–0.4219***
	(0.1207)	(0.2649)	(0.1413)	(0.1372)	(0.1491)	(0.1461)
Government balance, % of GDP (t–1)	–0.0267***	–0.1279***	–0.0276**	–0.0316**	–0.0224*	–0.0295**
	(0.0097)	(0.0363)	(0.0126)	(0.0125)	(0.0126)	(0.0126)
CPIA (t–1)	–0.2801***	–0.3386**	–0.2715**	–0.3065***	–0.3834***	–0.2403**
	(0.0876)	(0.1698)	(0.1092)	(0.1055)	(0.1215)	(0.1139)
IMF program dummy (t)	–0.2083*	0.2073	–0.3532**	–0.3078**	–0.4710***	–0.3206**
	(0.1189)	(0.2620)	(0.1464)	(0.1414)	(0.1578)	(0.1483)
Constant	0.8224***	0.4044	0.7584**	0.8663**	1.3446***	0.6598*
	(0.2830)	(0.5948)	(0.3758)	(0.3614)	(0.4022)	(0.3951)
Number of observations	590	163	414	439	368	396
Pseudo R²	0.1022	0.2057	0.1042	0.1081	0.1279	0.1016

^{Table A3.1.}

Absorption Drop Probit Regression: Robustness Check

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Longer sample period (1980-2009)	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0944***	–0.1196	–0.0902***	–0.0906***	–0.1028***	–0.0902**
	(0.0285)	(0.0872)	(0.0344)	(0.0339)	(0.0350)	(0.0358)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–0.4304***	–0.8172***	–0.3549**	–0.3610***	–0.2530*	–0.4219***
	(0.1207)	(0.2649)	(0.1413)	(0.1372)	(0.1491)	(0.1461)
Government balance, % of GDP (t–1)	–0.0267***	–0.1279***	–0.0276**	–0.0316**	–0.0224*	–0.0295**
	(0.0097)	(0.0363)	(0.0126)	(0.0125)	(0.0126)	(0.0126)
CPIA (t–1)	–0.2801***	–0.3386**	–0.2715**	–0.3065***	–0.3834***	–0.2403**
	(0.0876)	(0.1698)	(0.1092)	(0.1055)	(0.1215)	(0.1139)
IMF program dummy (t)	–0.2083*	0.2073	–0.3532**	–0.3078**	–0.4710***	–0.3206**
	(0.1189)	(0.2620)	(0.1464)	(0.1414)	(0.1578)	(0.1483)
Constant	0.8224***	0.4044	0.7584**	0.8663**	1.3446***	0.6598*
	(0.2830)	(0.5948)	(0.3758)	(0.3614)	(0.4022)	(0.3951)
Number of observations	590	163	414	439	368	396
Pseudo R²	0.1022	0.2057	0.1042	0.1081	0.1279	0.1016

^{Table A3.2.}

Probability of Consumption Drops

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR: Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; and WHD: Western Hemisphere.

^{Table A3.2.}

Probability of Consumption Drops

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
	Baseline probit	Logit	Excluding fragile states	Excluding commodity exporters	Excluding oil exporters	Excluding island economies	Longer sample period (1980-2009)	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Reserve, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0866***	–0.1443**	–0.1447***	–0.1104***	–0.0919***	–0.0769**	–0.0779***	–0.1034	–0.0839**	–0.0878***	–0.1055***	–0.0878**
	(0.0329)	(0.0567)	(0.0492)	(0.0423)	(0.0347)	(0.0349)	(0.0275)	(0.0836)	(0.0333)	(0.0329)	(0.0344)	(0.0343)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–0.3402**	–0.5805***	–0.1309	–0.4537***	–0.3684***	–0.3832***	–0.3660***	–0.8585***	–0.3103**	–0.3201**	–0.2334	–0.2864**
	(0.1333)	(0.2245)	(0.1731)	(0.1655)	(0.1365)	(0.1467)	(0.1169)	(0.2566)	(0.1375)	(0.1338)	(0.1461)	(0.1404)
Government balance, percent of GDP (t–1)	–0.0243**	–0.0400**	–0.0036	–0.0291*	–0.0245*	–0.0358**	–0.0227**	–0.0510*	–0.0205*	–0.0236**	–0.0221*	–0.0218*
	(0.0120)	(0.0203)	(0.0159)	(0.0149)	(0.0126)	(0.0141)	(0.0096)	(0.0289)	(0.0122)	(0.0120)	(0.0127)	(0.0121)
CPIA (t–1)	–0.2538**	–0.4251**	–0.4411**	–0.3220***	–0.2828***	–0.1694	–0.2391***	–0.3542**	–0.2076**	–0.2516**	–0.3093***	–0.1909*
	(0.1027)	(0.1709)	(0.1996)	(0.1170)	(0.1052)	(0.1231)	(0.0848)	(0.1674)	(0.1058)	(0.1026)	(0.1178)	(0.1102)
IMF program (t)	–0.2550*	–0.4204*	–0.0347	–0.2185	–0.2817**	–0.3728**	–0.1068	0.1715	–0.2974**	–0.2603*	–0.3872**	–0.2768*
	(0.1376)	(0.2296)	(0.1915)	(0.1687)	(0.1414)	(0.1537)	(0.1164)	(0.2547)	(0.1426)	(0.1381)	(0.1554)	(0.1434)
Constant	0.7406**	1.2589**	1.4002*	1.0006**	0.8810**	0.4958	0.6749**	0.7645	0.5893	0.7427**	1.1252***	0.5566
	(0.3525)	(0.5840)	(0.7673)	(0.4173)	(0.3711)	(0.4072)	(0.2756)	(0.5958)	(0.3653)	(0.3525)	(0.3902)	(0.3827)
Number of observations	445	445	282	311	427	385	590	163	414	439	368	396
R²	0.0814	0.0812	0.0584	0.1165	0.0868	0.0946	0.0704	0.1605	0.0731	0.0798	0.1034	0.0674

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR: Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; and WHD: Western Hemisphere.

^{Table A3.2.}

Probability of Consumption Drops

(Panel probit regression, 1990–2007)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
	Baseline probit	Logit	Excluding fragile states	Excluding commodity exporters	Excluding oil exporters	Excluding island economies	Longer sample period (1980-2009)	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Reserve, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0866***	–0.1443**	–0.1447***	–0.1104***	–0.0919***	–0.0769**	–0.0779***	–0.1034	–0.0839**	–0.0878***	–0.1055***	–0.0878**
	(0.0329)	(0.0567)	(0.0492)	(0.0423)	(0.0347)	(0.0349)	(0.0275)	(0.0836)	(0.0333)	(0.0329)	(0.0344)	(0.0343)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–0.3402**	–0.5805***	–0.1309	–0.4537***	–0.3684***	–0.3832***	–0.3660***	–0.8585***	–0.3103**	–0.3201**	–0.2334	–0.2864**
	(0.1333)	(0.2245)	(0.1731)	(0.1655)	(0.1365)	(0.1467)	(0.1169)	(0.2566)	(0.1375)	(0.1338)	(0.1461)	(0.1404)
Government balance, percent of GDP (t–1)	–0.0243**	–0.0400**	–0.0036	–0.0291*	–0.0245*	–0.0358**	–0.0227**	–0.0510*	–0.0205*	–0.0236**	–0.0221*	–0.0218*
	(0.0120)	(0.0203)	(0.0159)	(0.0149)	(0.0126)	(0.0141)	(0.0096)	(0.0289)	(0.0122)	(0.0120)	(0.0127)	(0.0121)
CPIA (t–1)	–0.2538**	–0.4251**	–0.4411**	–0.3220***	–0.2828***	–0.1694	–0.2391***	–0.3542**	–0.2076**	–0.2516**	–0.3093***	–0.1909*
	(0.1027)	(0.1709)	(0.1996)	(0.1170)	(0.1052)	(0.1231)	(0.0848)	(0.1674)	(0.1058)	(0.1026)	(0.1178)	(0.1102)
IMF program (t)	–0.2550*	–0.4204*	–0.0347	–0.2185	–0.2817**	–0.3728**	–0.1068	0.1715	–0.2974**	–0.2603*	–0.3872**	–0.2768*
	(0.1376)	(0.2296)	(0.1915)	(0.1687)	(0.1414)	(0.1537)	(0.1164)	(0.2547)	(0.1426)	(0.1381)	(0.1554)	(0.1434)
Constant	0.7406**	1.2589**	1.4002*	1.0006**	0.8810**	0.4958	0.6749**	0.7645	0.5893	0.7427**	1.1252***	0.5566
	(0.3525)	(0.5840)	(0.7673)	(0.4173)	(0.3711)	(0.4072)	(0.2756)	(0.5958)	(0.3653)	(0.3525)	(0.3902)	(0.3827)
Number of observations	445	445	282	311	427	385	590	163	414	439	368	396
R²	0.0814	0.0812	0.0584	0.1165	0.0868	0.0946	0.0704	0.1605	0.0731	0.0798	0.1034	0.0674

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR: Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; and WHD: Western Hemisphere.

Table A3.3. summarizes the robustness checks for the fixed-effects ordinary least squares (OLS) regressions for absorption loss across various subsamples. The regression results are again robust to different ways of cutting the sample. In particular, the reserve variable remains significant, with the expected sign across most specifications. Table A3.4. reports robustness checks for the fixed effects OLS regressions with consumption losses as the relevant dependent variable. Reserves and the exchange rate regime are statistically significant and largely robust to different sample restrictions, but other variables are either insignificant or only marginally significant.

^{Table A3.3.}

Absorption Loss Regression: Robustness Check

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. All specifications include country fixed effects, but they are not reported in the table. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR: Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; WHD: Western Hemisphere. FDI: foreign direct investment.

^{Table A3.3.}

Absorption Loss Regression: Robustness Check

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Log of reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0673	–2.2679***	–2.2753***	–2.3968***	–2.6317***
	(1.3657)	(0.6556)	(0.6682)	(0.7075)	(0.7173)
Flexible exchange rate regime dummy (t–1)	–10.3606***	–9.2590***	–8.6741***	–7.4263***	–9.0198***
	(2.9899)	(2.2666)	(2.1678)	(2.3578)	(2.4843)
External demand growth (t)	–1.4003**	–0.7156	–0.9371**	–0.7284	–1.0432**
	(0.6759)	(0.4788)	(0.4343)	(0.4471)	(0.4752)
Terms of trade growth (t)	–0.0898*	0.0007	–0.0854*	–0.0834	–0.1091**
	(0.0523)	(0.0257)	(0.0488)	(0.0522)	(0.0505)
Change in FDI to GDP (t)	0.5123*	–0.4515	–0.0397	–0.0145	–0.0450
	(0.3088)	(0.3085)	(0.3432)	(0.3825)	(0.3270)
Change in aid to GDP (t)	0.1883***	0.0661	0.0503	0.0537	–0.0503
	(0.0633)	(0.0848)	(0.0841)	(0.0875)	(0.1373)
Number of observations	143	394	414	349	372
Adjusted R²	0.59	0.34	0.32	0.27	0.35
Country fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

^{Table A3.3.}

Absorption Loss Regression: Robustness Check

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)
	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Log of reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–0.0673	–2.2679***	–2.2753***	–2.3968***	–2.6317***
	(1.3657)	(0.6556)	(0.6682)	(0.7075)	(0.7173)
Flexible exchange rate regime dummy (t–1)	–10.3606***	–9.2590***	–8.6741***	–7.4263***	–9.0198***
	(2.9899)	(2.2666)	(2.1678)	(2.3578)	(2.4843)
External demand growth (t)	–1.4003**	–0.7156	–0.9371**	–0.7284	–1.0432**
	(0.6759)	(0.4788)	(0.4343)	(0.4471)	(0.4752)
Terms of trade growth (t)	–0.0898*	0.0007	–0.0854*	–0.0834	–0.1091**
	(0.0523)	(0.0257)	(0.0488)	(0.0522)	(0.0505)
Change in FDI to GDP (t)	0.5123*	–0.4515	–0.0397	–0.0145	–0.0450
	(0.3088)	(0.3085)	(0.3432)	(0.3825)	(0.3270)
Change in aid to GDP (t)	0.1883***	0.0661	0.0503	0.0537	–0.0503
	(0.0633)	(0.0848)	(0.0841)	(0.0875)	(0.1373)
Number of observations	143	394	414	349	372
Adjusted R²	0.59	0.34	0.32	0.27	0.35
Country fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

^{Table A3.4.}

Consumption Loss Regression

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

Source: IMF staff estimates Note: Robust standard errors are in parentheses. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent, respectively. All specifications include country fixed effects, but they are not reported in the table. Regional country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; MCD: Middle East and Central Asia; EUR: Europe; APD: Asia Pacific; and WHD: Western Hemisphere. FDI: foreign direct investment.

^{Table A3.4.}

Consumption Loss Regression

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
	Baseline	Excluding fragile states	Excluding commodity exporters	Excluding oil exporters	Excluding island economies	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Log of reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–2.0199***	–1.9591**	–1.3857***	–1.6499***	–2.2866***	–1.7273	–1.8189***	–2.0472***	–2.0127***	–2.3089***
	(0.5041)	(0.8724)	(0.3989)	(0.5236)	(0.5328)	(1.6024)	(0.4994)	(0.5043)	(0.4930)	(0.5449)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–6.8017***	–7.5430**	–2.8485*	–6.8294***	–6.8365***	–6.2758**	–7.5083***	–6.7814***	–5.6925***	–7.4448***
	(1.9256)	(2.9342)	(1.4565)	(1.9443)	(2.2989)	(2.9306)	(2.0107)	(1.9247)	(2.0015)	(2.2376)
External demand growth (t)	–0.6559*	–0.7532	–0.7644**	–0.5706	–0.2792	–0.9297	–0.6026	–0.6627*	–0.4635	–0.7754*
	(0.3754)	(0.5984)	(0.3052)	(0.3728)	(0.3559)	(0.6417)	(0.4295)	(0.3760)	(0.3416)	(0.4184)
Terms of trade growth (t)	–0.0074	0.0128	–0.0060	–0.0056	–0.0101	–0.0086	–0.0101	–0.0085	0.0009	–0.0108
	(0.0171)	(0.0275)	(0.0181)	(0.0178)	(0.0219)	(0.0262)	(0.0232)	(0.0171)	(0.0176)	(0.0203)
Change in FDI to GDP (t)	–0.2214	–0.0197	–0.4201*	–0.2339	–0.2678*	–0.1743	–0.2013	–0.2421*	–0.2193	–0.2365
	(0.1363)	(0.1694)	(0.2405)	(0.1801)	(0.1384)	(0.1710)	(0.1843)	(0.1352)	(0.1471)	(0.1459)
Change in aid to GDP (t)	0.0992	0.3293	0.0809	0.0904	0.1058	0.1564***	0.0913	0.0975	0.0892	0.0881
	(0.0695)	(0.2020)	(0.0689)	(0.0717)	(0.0730)	(0.0514)	(0.0691)	(0.0695)	(0.0720)	(0.1256)
Number of observations	418	264	287	401	360	143	394	414	349	372
Adjusted R²	0.2757	0.3138	0.4364	0.2883	0.2701	0.4336	0.2754	0.2499	0.2430	0.2734
Country fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

^{Table A3.4.}

Consumption Loss Regression

(Fixed effects regression with the probit sample)

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)
	Baseline	Excluding fragile states	Excluding commodity exporters	Excluding oil exporters	Excluding island economies	Excluding AFR	Excluding MCD	Excluding EUR	Excluding APD	Excluding WHD
Log of reserves, months of imports (t–1)	–2.0199***	–1.9591**	–1.3857***	–1.6499***	–2.2866***	–1.7273	–1.8189***	–2.0472***	–2.0127***	–2.3089***
	(0.5041)	(0.8724)	(0.3989)	(0.5236)	(0.5328)	(1.6024)	(0.4994)	(0.5043)	(0.4930)	(0.5449)
Flexible exchange rate regime (t–1)	–6.8017***	–7.5430**	–2.8485*	–6.8294***	–6.8365***	–6.2758**	–7.5083***	–6.7814***	–5.6925***	–7.4448***
	(1.9256)	(2.9342)	(1.4565)	(1.9443)	(2.2989)	(2.9306)	(2.0107)	(1.9247)	(2.0015)	(2.2376)
External demand growth (t)	–0.6559*	–0.7532	–0.7644**	–0.5706	–0.2792	–0.9297	–0.6026	–0.6627*	–0.4635	–0.7754*
	(0.3754)	(0.5984)	(0.3052)	(0.3728)	(0.3559)	(0.6417)	(0.4295)	(0.3760)	(0.3416)	(0.4184)
Terms of trade growth (t)	–0.0074	0.0128	–0.0060	–0.0056	–0.0101	–0.0086	–0.0101	–0.0085	0.0009	–0.0108
	(0.0171)	(0.0275)	(0.0181)	(0.0178)	(0.0219)	(0.0262)	(0.0232)	(0.0171)	(0.0176)	(0.0203)
Change in FDI to GDP (t)	–0.2214	–0.0197	–0.4201*	–0.2339	–0.2678*	–0.1743	–0.2013	–0.2421*	–0.2193	–0.2365
	(0.1363)	(0.1694)	(0.2405)	(0.1801)	(0.1384)	(0.1710)	(0.1843)	(0.1352)	(0.1471)	(0.1459)
Change in aid to GDP (t)	0.0992	0.3293	0.0809	0.0904	0.1058	0.1564***	0.0913	0.0975	0.0892	0.0881
	(0.0695)	(0.2020)	(0.0689)	(0.0717)	(0.0730)	(0.0514)	(0.0691)	(0.0695)	(0.0720)	(0.1256)
Number of observations	418	264	287	401	360	143	394	414	349	372
Adjusted R²	0.2757	0.3138	0.4364	0.2883	0.2701	0.4336	0.2754	0.2499	0.2430	0.2734
Country fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

In sum, both the probit and the fixed-effects OLS regression results are broadly robust to various sample restrictions for both real absorption and consumption per capita. Lastly, Table A3.5. reports sensitivity analysis of calibration results, using various parameter assumptions, as discussed in Chapter 6.

^{Table A3.5.}

Sensitivity Analysis of Calibrated Optimal Reserves

(In months of imports)

Source: IMF staff estimates. Note: Country groups are defined as follows: AFR: Africa; COM: commodity exporters; Non-COM: non-commodity exporters; and FRG: fragile states. Data type indicates shock values considered are for the bottom 5th (Bot 5), 10th (Bot 10), or 25th (Bot 25) percentile of the group-specific distribution instead of the median.

^{Table A3.5.}

Sensitivity Analysis of Calibrated Optimal Reserves

(In months of imports)

				Country group
Exchange rate regime	Availability of Fund support	Data type	Cost of reserves	ALL	AFR	COM	Non-COM	FRG
Fixed regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	11.0	11.9	11.6	10.7	14.0
		Bot 25	3%	8.3	9.2	8.9	8.0	11.1
		Bot 25	4%	6.3	7.3	7.0	6.0	8.9
		Bot 25	5%	4.9	5.8	5.6	4.6	7.1
		Bot 25	6%	3.9	4.6	4.5	3.6	5.7
		Bot 10	2%	12.2	13.0	12.8	11.9	15.0
		Bot 10	3%	9.5	10.4	10.1	9.1	12.2
		Bot 10	4%	7.4	8.3	8.1	7.0	10.0
		Bot 10	5%	5.8	6.7	6.6	5.4	8.2
		Bot 10	6%	4.6	5.4	5.3	4.2	6.7
		Bot 5	2%	12.6	13.4	12.9	12.3	15.6
		Bot 5	3%	9.8	10.8	10.2	9.5	12.8
		Bot 5	4%	7.8	8.7	8.2	7.4	10.6
		Bot 5	5%	6.1	7.1	6.6	5.8	8.8
		Bot 5	6%	4.8	5.8	5.4	4.5	7.2
Flexible regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	4.6	6.5	6.5	3.8	6.7
		Bot 25	3%	3.2	4.6	4.6	2.7	4.7
		Bot 25	4%	2.4	3.4	3.4	2.0	3.5
		Bot 25	5%	1.8	2.6	2.6	1.6	2.7
		Bot 25	6%	1.5	2.1	2.1	1.3	2.2
		Bot 10	2%	5.6	7.6	7.6	4.7	8.0
		Bot 10	3%	3.9	5.5	5.5	3.2	5.7
		Bot 10	4%	2.8	4.0	4.1	2.3	4.2
		Bot 10	5%	2.1	3.1	3.1	1.8	3.2
		Bot 10	6%	1.7	2.4	2.5	1.5	2.5
		Bot 5	2%	6.0	8.1	7.7	5.1	8.7
		Bot 5	3%	4.1	5.8	5.6	3.5	6.2
		Bot 5	4%	3.0	4.3	4.1	2.5	4.6
		Bot 5	5%	2.3	3.3	3.2	1.9	3.5
		Bot 5	6%	1.8	2.6	2.5	1.5	2.8

^{Table A3.5.}

Sensitivity Analysis of Calibrated Optimal Reserves

(In months of imports)

				Country group
Exchange rate regime	Availability of Fund support	Data type	Cost of reserves	ALL	AFR	COM	Non-COM	FRG
Fixed regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	11.0	11.9	11.6	10.7	14.0
		Bot 25	3%	8.3	9.2	8.9	8.0	11.1
		Bot 25	4%	6.3	7.3	7.0	6.0	8.9
		Bot 25	5%	4.9	5.8	5.6	4.6	7.1
		Bot 25	6%	3.9	4.6	4.5	3.6	5.7
		Bot 10	2%	12.2	13.0	12.8	11.9	15.0
		Bot 10	3%	9.5	10.4	10.1	9.1	12.2
		Bot 10	4%	7.4	8.3	8.1	7.0	10.0
		Bot 10	5%	5.8	6.7	6.6	5.4	8.2
		Bot 10	6%	4.6	5.4	5.3	4.2	6.7
		Bot 5	2%	12.6	13.4	12.9	12.3	15.6
		Bot 5	3%	9.8	10.8	10.2	9.5	12.8
		Bot 5	4%	7.8	8.7	8.2	7.4	10.6
		Bot 5	5%	6.1	7.1	6.6	5.8	8.8
		Bot 5	6%	4.8	5.8	5.4	4.5	7.2
Flexible regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	4.6	6.5	6.5	3.8	6.7
		Bot 25	3%	3.2	4.6	4.6	2.7	4.7
		Bot 25	4%	2.4	3.4	3.4	2.0	3.5
		Bot 25	5%	1.8	2.6	2.6	1.6	2.7
		Bot 25	6%	1.5	2.1	2.1	1.3	2.2
		Bot 10	2%	5.6	7.6	7.6	4.7	8.0
		Bot 10	3%	3.9	5.5	5.5	3.2	5.7
		Bot 10	4%	2.8	4.0	4.1	2.3	4.2
		Bot 10	5%	2.1	3.1	3.1	1.8	3.2
		Bot 10	6%	1.7	2.4	2.5	1.5	2.5
		Bot 5	2%	6.0	8.1	7.7	5.1	8.7
		Bot 5	3%	4.1	5.8	5.6	3.5	6.2
		Bot 5	4%	3.0	4.3	4.1	2.5	4.6
		Bot 5	5%	2.3	3.3	3.2	1.9	3.5
		Bot 5	6%	1.8	2.6	2.5	1.5	2.8

Results for shocks to climatic conditions are not available due to data limitations.

The threshold used for this exercise is still the 10th percentile of the distribution. Due to data limitations, results for shocks to climatic conditions are not available.

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Index

[Page numbers followed by f, n or t refer to figures, footnotes or tables, respectively.]

Absorption

crisis definition, 27–28
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
loss regression, 31t, 33, 60, 62t
reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 18f, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t
role of reserve holdings, 37
See also Crisis

Advanced and emerging markets

cost of holding reserves, 25
reserve accumulation trends, 20, 20f
shock risk in, 3, 25

Agriculture sector, 3, 4f

Aid. See Foreign direct investment and aid

Broad money coverage, 20–21, 23

Climatic shocks

definition, 38
geographical distribution, 9
in island economies, 12
outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f
reserve coverage effects in mediating, 54–55f
risk, 8

Commodity-exporting and -importing countries

effectiveness of reserves in mediating shock effects in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 43, 43f, 54–55f
reserve adequacy in, 34
reserve coverage trends, 23, 23t
shock outcomes in, 12, 1, 9, 9n, 13, 37, 47–48t, 50–51f, 52–53f, 57t

Consumption

crisis conditions, 28, 28t
effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
loss regression, 62t
outcomes of shocks in LICs, 6, 6f, 9, 12, 13f, 16f, 50–51f
probability, 61t
reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 14f, 16, 18f, 54–55f

Cost of external shocks

absorption losses, 31t, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t
event study analysis, 7–8, 7n, 8f
modeling methodology, 2, 25–28
output losses, 5, 6f
reserve depletion, 9, 15f
structural characteristics of country and, 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 11f, 12, 15f, 16, 16f, 37
by type of shock, 12f, 37, 41f, 42f, 47–49t, 50–55f
welfare losses, 6
See also Growth outcomes of shocks

Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, 28, 28n.

See also Policy and institutional quality

Crisis

definition, 27–28
determinants of absorption loss severity, 31–32
growth rate outcomes, 28t
probability factors, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t

East Asia, 9

Eastern Europe, 9

Emerging markets. See Advanced

and emerging markets

Event study analysis, 7–8, 38

robustness, 41–43, 60, 60t

Exchange rate policies

consumption drop probability and, 61t
crisis probability and, 28–30, 30f, 30t
crisis severity and, 31–32, 31t
data sources, 8n, 38, 58
reserve accumulation trends and, 21, 22f, 23
reserve adequacy and, 2, 16, 21, 34, 35f, 36, 54f
shock effects and, 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 37, 47t, 50f, 52f, 54f

External-demand shocks

data sources, 38
definition, 7
outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 13f, 16f, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f
reserve coverage effects in mediating, 13, 14, 14f, 15f, 54–55f
size and severity, 27f

External shocks, generally

data sources, 38, 58
definition, 7, 7f, 7n, 26–27, 41
forms of, 3, 3t, 7, 26, 27f. See also specific form
frequency, 3, 3t, 8–9, 9t, 10t, 42t
geographic distribution, 9, 10t
probability modeling, 25–26
size and severity, 9, 9t, 10t, 27f, 42t
trends, 4–5
vulnerability of low-income countries, 1, 3–5, 37
See also Costs of external shocks

Foreign direct investment and aid

absorption loss mitigation in shocks from, 31, 31t
data sources, 38
frequency of shocks to, 8, 9
geographic distribution of shocks to, 9
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
outcomes of shocks in, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f
reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks to, 13, 14, 54–55f
size and severity of shocks, 9, 27f
vulnerability of LICs to shocks in, 25

Fragile states, reserve adequacy in, 2, 33, 34, 36

Global financial crisis (2007–10), 4, 7, 16–19

Globalization, 4–5, 5f

Government debt

cost of shock and, 37
crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t
data sources, 40
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

Growth outcomes of shocks

crisis probability, 28
data sources, 38–40, 58
effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f
event study analysis, 7–8, 7n
loss regression, 62–63t
macroeconomic volatility and, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37
mechanism, 5–6
positive shocks, 4, 5
reserve coverage effects, 13–14, 14f, 18f
by shock type, 12f, 50–55f
structural characteristics of country and, 12, 13f, 16f

Heavily-indebted LICs

definition, 9n
reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 55f
shock outcomes, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

International Monetary Fund programs

consumption drop probability and, 61t
crisis probability in countries with, 28–29, 30f, 30t
data sources, 38, 60
reserve adequacy in countries with, 34
reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in countries with, 55f
SDR allocations, 17, 36, 56t
shock outcomes in countries with, 2, 8n, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17–19, 18f, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

International reserves

costs of recent global financial crisis, 16–17, 17f
data sources, 58
effects of shocks on, 9, 15f, 16, 16f
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
nonprecautionary role, 1n
opportunity cost of, 6, 21–23, 25
rationale for holding, 1, 6, 13, 25, 37
as self-insurance, 26
See also Reserve adequacy

Investment

effects of shocks, 5–6
historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
in mediating shock effects, 14
reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 17, 18f
See also Foreign direct investment and aid

Island countries

reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17, 18f, 55f
shock outcomes in, 1, 9, 12, 13, 48t, 51f, 53f, 57t

Latin America, 9

LICs. See Low income countries

Low income countries (LICs)

cost of reserve holding, 25
definition, 1
effects of global financial crisis, 16–19
global integration, 4–5, 5f
list of, 38–40t
macroeconomic volatility, 6, 6f, 44–46t
reserve coverage trends, 20–21, 23–24, 23t, 24f
structural characteristics of, 38–40t
vulnerability to external shocks, 1, 2, 3–5, 25, 37
See also Cost of external shocks; Heavily-indebted LICs

Macroeconomic functioning

historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t
shock impacts, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37, 43f, 47–49t, 57–58t

Market concentration, 4f

Middle East, 9

Natural disasters, 3

Net benefit of holding reserves, 25–26

Oil-exporting countries

list of, 38–40t
reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 54f
reserve coverage trends, 21, 22f
shock outcomes in, 48t, 50f, 52f, 57t

Policy and institutional quality

crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t
data sources, 58
reserve adequacy and, 34–35, 35f

Political shocks. See Socio-political shocks

Positive shocks

government spending and, 4
growth outcomes, 5

Pre-shock trends, 8n, 37

Reserve adequacy

assessment methodology, 1–2, 7–8, 25–28, 33–34, 38–40
consumption drop probability and, 61t
cost of holding reserves in assessment of, 33, 34
crisis probability and, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t
crisis severity and, 31, 31t
demand modeling for calculation of, 21–23
effectiveness in mediating shock outcomes, 13–14, 14f, 54–55f, 57–58t
effects of global financial crisis mediated by, 17
import coverage, 1, 2, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20–21, 34, 37
recent trends, 20–21, 20f, 22f, 23–24, 23t
regional comparison, 23–24, 24f
research findings, 1, 2, 34–36, 37
structural characteristics of economy as factor in, 17–19, 18f, 34–36, 43f
See also International reserves, generally

Shocks. See Cost of external shocks; External shocks, generally

Socio-political shocks, 3, 6

Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 9, 21

Terms-of-trade shocks

absorption loss mitigation, 31, 31t
data sources, 38
definition, 7
frequency, 3, 8–9
global distribution, 4f
outcomes, 9, 11f, 12, 12f, 16f, 37, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f
reserve coverage effects in mediating, 14, 14f, 15f, 16, 54–55f
size and severity, 27, 27f

Trade

export concentration, 4f
import coverage of reserves, 1, 2
outcomes of recent global financial crisis in external balances, 16
sources of vulnerability to shocks, 3–4, 4f
See also Commodity-exporting and -importing countries; External demand shocks; Terms-of-trade shocks

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Assessing Reserve Adequacy in Low-Income Countries

Author:

Mr. Valerio Crispolti

Ms. Era Dabla-Norris

Mr. Jun I Kim

Ms. Kazuko Shirono https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2325-1075

, and

Mr. George C. Tsibouris

ISBN:: 9781616354121

ISSN:: 0251-6365

Publication Date:: 08 Mar 2013

Publisher:: International Monetary Fund

DOI:: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781616354121.084

Pages:: 78

Abstract
Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis
Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis
Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves
References
Index

View raw image

^{Figure A2.1.}

Costs of External Shocks by Variable and Type of Shock (25th percentile)

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend in percentage points; median values)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.2.}

Costs of External Shocks by Variable and Type of Shock (Whole-Sample Distribution)

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend in percentage points; median values)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.3.}

Macroeconomic Performance by Level of Reserves and Structural Characteristics (“Closed” Events)

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend in percentage points; median values)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.4.}

GDP and Consumption Costs by Type of Shock

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.4.}

GDP and Consumption Costs by Type of Shock

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.5.}

GDP Costs by Type of Shock and Level of Reserves

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.5.}

GDP Costs by Type of Shock and Level of Reserves

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.6.}

Consumption Costs by Type of Shock and Level of Reserves

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

View raw image

^{Figure A2.6.}

Consumption Costs by Type of Shock and Level of Reserves

(Losses computed with respect to pre-shock trend; median values; duration up to ten years)

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^{Table A3.5.}

Sensitivity Analysis of Calibrated Optimal Reserves

(In months of imports)

				Country group
Exchange rate regime	Availability of Fund support	Data type	Cost of reserves	ALL	AFR	COM	Non-COM	FRG
Fixed regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	11.0	11.9	11.6	10.7	14.0
		Bot 25	3%	8.3	9.2	8.9	8.0	11.1
		Bot 25	4%	6.3	7.3	7.0	6.0	8.9
		Bot 25	5%	4.9	5.8	5.6	4.6	7.1
		Bot 25	6%	3.9	4.6	4.5	3.6	5.7
		Bot 10	2%	12.2	13.0	12.8	11.9	15.0
		Bot 10	3%	9.5	10.4	10.1	9.1	12.2
		Bot 10	4%	7.4	8.3	8.1	7.0	10.0
		Bot 10	5%	5.8	6.7	6.6	5.4	8.2
		Bot 10	6%	4.6	5.4	5.3	4.2	6.7
		Bot 5	2%	12.6	13.4	12.9	12.3	15.6
		Bot 5	3%	9.8	10.8	10.2	9.5	12.8
		Bot 5	4%	7.8	8.7	8.2	7.4	10.6
		Bot 5	5%	6.1	7.1	6.6	5.8	8.8
		Bot 5	6%	4.8	5.8	5.4	4.5	7.2
Flexible regime	Yes	Bot 25	2%	4.6	6.5	6.5	3.8	6.7
		Bot 25	3%	3.2	4.6	4.6	2.7	4.7
		Bot 25	4%	2.4	3.4	3.4	2.0	3.5
		Bot 25	5%	1.8	2.6	2.6	1.6	2.7
		Bot 25	6%	1.5	2.1	2.1	1.3	2.2
		Bot 10	2%	5.6	7.6	7.6	4.7	8.0
		Bot 10	3%	3.9	5.5	5.5	3.2	5.7
		Bot 10	4%	2.8	4.0	4.1	2.3	4.2
		Bot 10	5%	2.1	3.1	3.1	1.8	3.2
		Bot 10	6%	1.7	2.4	2.5	1.5	2.5
		Bot 5	2%	6.0	8.1	7.7	5.1	8.7
		Bot 5	3%	4.1	5.8	5.6	3.5	6.2
		Bot 5	4%	3.0	4.3	4.1	2.5	4.6
		Bot 5	5%	2.3	3.3	3.2	1.9	3.5
		Bot 5	6%	1.8	2.6	2.5	1.5	2.8

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Countries

Series

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Abstract

Appendix 1: Data Sources and Definitions: Event Study Analysis

Shock Variables

Economic Variables

Appendix 2: Robustness Analysis

Appendix 3: Data and Robustness Analysis of Optimal Reserves

Data

Growth variables

External shocks

Fiscal policy

Monetary policy

External vulnerability

Openness

Financial development

Exchange rate regime

Institutions

International reserves

IMF program

Robustness Analysis

References

Index

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