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Abstract

Despite the recent deterioration in the global economic environment, projections for the region involve only a modest worsening of the outlook. The October 2011 Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere cautions, however, that there are severe downside risks. A sharp slowdown in Asia, for example in response to a recession in advanced economies, could impact commodity prices, with negative effects on Latin American commodity exporters. With global monetary policy likely to remain accommodative, capital flows could exacerbate overheating and amplify vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Countries with strong real linkages to the United States face a somewhat weaker outlook and should give priority to reducing public debt. Although much of the Caribbean is recovering from a prolonged recession, the outlook remains constrained by high public debt and weak tourism flows. This issue finds that policies can play an important role in mitigating the economic impact of terms-of-trade shocks, and underscores the need to rebuild policy buffers.

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New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011

1. IMF Working Papers

WP/11/199 – Shocks, Financial Dependence, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Industries, by Marcello Estevão and Tiago Severo.

WP/11/197 – External Adjustment and the Global Crisis, by Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.

WP/11/191 – Home Sweet Home: Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.

WP/11/165 – Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds? by Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar.

WP/11/159 – Policy Instruments to Lean against the Wind in Latin America, by Gilbert Terrier, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Camilo E. Tovar Mora, Jorge A. Chan Lau, Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos I. Medeiros, Man-Keung Tang, Mercedes Vera Martin, and W. Christopher Walker.

WP/11/157 – The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries, by Alma Lucia Romero-Barrutieta, Ales Bulir, and Jose Daniel Rodriguez-Delgado.

WP/11/105 – Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment? by Marcello M. Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.

WP/11/92 – International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion—A Survey, by Gaston Gelos.

WP/11/84 – The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10, by Carlos I. Medeiros and Marco Rodriguez Waldo.

WP/11/72 – An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How? by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.

WP/11/58 – Creditless Recoveries, by Abdul Abiad, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Bin (Grace) Li.

WP/11/44 – Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?, by Michelle Tejada and Laura Jaramillo.

WP/11/32 – Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers? by Andrew M. Wolfe and Rafael Romeu.

WP/11/17 – Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.

WP/11/14 – Interpreting Currency Movements during the Crisis: What’s the Role of Interest Rate Differences? by Thomas Dowling and Nicoletta Batini.

WP/11/10 – What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization in Latin America? by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Sebastián Sosa.

WP/11/2 – The Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas E. Magud and Leandro Medina.

WP/10/292 – Weathering the Global Storm: The Benefits of Monetary Policy Reform in the LA5 Countries, by Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, Luis Ignacio Jácome, Ali Alichi, and Ivan Luis de Oliveira Lima.

WP/10/279 – A Note on Terms of Trade Shocks and the Wage Gag, by David O. Coble Fernandez and Nicolas E. Magud.

WP/10/271 – When and Why Worry about Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link between Dutch Disease and Growth, by Nicolas E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa.

WP/10/248 – Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them? by Carlos Caceres, Ana Corbacho, and Leandro Medina.

WP/10/241 – On the Distributive Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Role of Non-tradable Goods, by Sebastian Galiani, Daniel Heymann, and Nicolas E. Magud.

WP/10/192 – The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America, by Leandro Medina.

WP/10/169 – Peru: Drivers of De-dollarization, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.

WP/10/168 – Does Procyclical Fiscal Policy Reinforce Incentives to Dollarize Sovereign Debt? by Anastasia Guscina, Anna Ilyina, and Herman Kamil.

WP/10/117 – Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets, by Laura Jaramillo.

WP/10/108 – The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

WP/10/107 – Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

WP/10/102 – The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks’ Lending to Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better? by Herman Kamil and Kulwant Rai.

WP/10/98 – Regulatory Capital Charges for Too-Connected-to-Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

WP/10/86 – The Embodiment of Intangible Investment Goods: A Q-Theory Approach, by Nazim Belhocine.

WP/10/62 – The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves, by Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim.

WP/10/60 – The Influence of “Big Brothers”: How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay? by Sebastián Sosa.

WP/10/59 – Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Preference Erosion, by Paul Cashin, Cleary Haines, and Montfort Mlachila.

WP/10/54 – Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia, by Fabian Valencia.

WP/10/43 – Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies, by Leandro Medina, Jordi Prat, and Alun Thomas.

WP/10/42 – Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey, by Nicoletta Batini, Young-Bae Kim, Paul Levine, and Emanuela Lotti.

WP/10/35 – Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes, by Andrew Swiston.

WP/10/23 – Financial Shocks and TFP Growth, by Marcello Estevão and Tiago Severo.

WP/10/13 – Canada’s Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis? by Marcello Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.

WP/10/5 – The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-financial Linkages Tell Us? by Rupa Duttagupta and Natalia Barrera.

WP/10/3 – Investment by Large Firms in Argentina, by Alvaro Piris.

WP/10/2 – Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and Andre Santos.

WP/10/1 – Post-crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons from Mercosur, by Sarah Sanya and Montfort Mlachila.

2. Selected Issues Papers

Barbados

  • Growth Dynamics, by Gamal El-Masry and Lulu Shui.

  • External Stability, by John Ralyea.

  • Barbados’ Financial System in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis, by Carla Macario.

Bolivia

  • Hydrocarbon Revenue Sharing Arrangements, by Fabian Bornhorst.

  • Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia, by Fabian Valencia.

Canada

  • The Post-crisis Canadian Housing Market, by Evridiki Tsounta.

  • Interpreting Canada’s Currency Movements during the Crisis, by Nicoletta Batini and Thomas Dowling.

  • Canada’s Potential Growth: A Post-crisis Assessment, by Evridiki Tsounta.

  • The Bumpy Road Ahead for North American Automakers, by Nicoletta Batini, Grace Bin Li, and John Dowling.

  • Canada’s Housing Finance System: Policy Backdrop, by John Kiff.

  • Canadian Banks and the Credit Turmoil, by Lev Ratnovski and Rocco Huang.

  • Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets: Boring But Effective? by John Kiff.

  • How Do Commodity Prices Affect Economic Slumps in Commodity Exporters? by Rupa Duttagupta.

  • Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Tale of Two Regions, by Evridiki Tsounta.

  • The Impact of Global Shocks on Canada—What Do Macro-financial Linkages Tell Us? by Rupa Duttagupta and Natalia Barrera.

Caribbean

  • Growth in the ECCU: What Went Wrong and Can It Be Fixed? by Nita Thacker, Sebastian Acevedo, Joong Shik Kang, Roberto Perrelli, and Melesse Tashu.

  • Public Debt in ECCU Countries, by Arnold Mclntyre and Sumiko Ogawa.

  • Rationalizing Public Expenditure in the ECCU, by Shamsuddin Tareq, Alejandro Simone, Koffie Nassar, and Arina Viseth.

  • Insurance against Natural Disasters in the Caribbean, by Yu Ching Wong, Anthony Lemus, and Nancy Wagner.

  • Risk Analysis of Public Debt in the Caribbean: A “Fan-Chart” Approach, by Koffie Nassar and Catherine Pattillo.

Chile

  • Assessment of Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness, by Jiri Podpiera and Yi Wu.

  • Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Domestic Credit, by Nicholas Magud.

  • Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

  • Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.

  • Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in the Chilean Banking System: A Balance Sheet Network Analysis, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.

  • A Note on Terms of Trade Shocks and the Wage Gap, by Nicolas Magud.

  • Revisiting the Estimation of the Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas Magud and Leandro Medina.

  • A Longer-Term Approach to Fiscal Policy in Chile, by Borja Gracia, Gabriel Di Bella, and Martin Cerisola.

  • Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile in a Global Perspective, by Gabriel Di Bella and Martin Cerisola.

  • The Global Financial Turmoil and Its Impact on Chilean Banks, by Jorge Chan-Lau.

Colombia

  • An Assessment of Financial Sector Indicators for the Colombian Corporate Sector, by Mercedes Vera Martin.

  • Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia, by Benedict J. Clements and Herman Kamil.

  • Determinants of Investment Grade Status and Implications for Colombia’s Public Debt, by Laura Jaramillo.

  • Does Financial Soundness Affect Credit Growth? by Iva Petrova and Enrique Flores.

  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia, by Benedict J. Clements, Enrique Flores, and Daniel Leigh.

  • The Colombian Banking Sector—A Contingent Claims Analysis, by Marcos Souto and Lisandro Abrego.

Guyana

  • The Impact of the Global Crisis and Policy Response, by Magda Kandil.

  • The Impact of the EU Sugar Trade Preferences and Their Erosion, by Felix Eschenbach.

  • Assessing the Fiscal Structural Stance, by Carla Macario.

Mexico

  • Potential Growth and the Output Gap in Mexico, by Enrique Flores and Francisco Vazquez-Ahued.

  • Estimating Default Frequences and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking System, by Rodolphe Blavy and Marcos Souto.

  • Exchange Rate Exposure of the Mexican Corporate Sector: Progress and Remaining Vulnerabilities, by Herman Kamil and W. Christopher Walker.

  • Expanding the Regulatory Perimeter: The Case of Sofoles and Sofomes, by Jose Giancarlo Gasha.

  • Labor Market Informality and Macroeconomic Performance, by Kristin Magnusson Bernard.

  • Reforming the Fiscal Framework: Budget Rules and Fiscal Risks, by Geremia Palomba.

  • The Global Crisis and Potential Growth in Mexico, by Kornelia Krajnyak.

Panama

  • Benefits from Attaining Investment Grade Status and Implications for Panama, by Mario Dehesa.

  • Macro-financial Linkages in Panama, by Juliana Araujo and Kristin Magnusson.

Paraguay

  • Potential Output Growth in Spillovers from Agriculture, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

  • Bank Excess Reserves in Paraguay—Determinants and Implications, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.

  • Assessing the Appropriateness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Adverse External Environment, by Montfort Mlachila and Brieuc Monfort.

  • Financial Sector Issues: Advances in the Implementation of the Financial Sector Assessment Program Recommendations, by Sylwia Nowak.

  • Paraguay’s Tax System in a Regional Perspective, by Ernesto Crivelli.

  • Post-crisis Behavior of Banks in Mercosur, by Sarah O. Sanya and Montfort Mlachila.

  • Sustainable Management of Revenues from Itaipu, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez and Walter Zarate.

  • The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Paraguay, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea and Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.

Peru

  • Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in a Dollarized Economy, by Maria Gonzalez.

  • Credit Growth: Anatomy and Policy Responses, by Luis Breuer, Jose Gasha, Giancarlo Peschiera, and Juan Alonso Perez-Salmon.

  • Disentangling the Motives for Foreign Exchange Intervention in Peru, by Maria Gonzalez.

  • Drivers of De-dollarization, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.

  • Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of Fiscal Policy, by Daniel Leigh.

  • Performance of Alternative Fiscal Rules: An Application to Peru, by Isabel Rial.

  • Potential Growth and Output Gap in Peru, by Leandro Medina.

  • Progress in Strengthening Peru’s Prudential Framework, by Patrick Amir Imam and Jose Giancarlo Gasha.

  • Regional Disparities and Public Transfers, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.

  • What to Expect When You Are Expecting…Large Capital Inflows? Lessons from Cross-Country Experiences, by Mercedes Vera Martin.

Uruguay

  • Assessing the Structural Fiscal Stance, by Manuel Rosales Torres.

  • Transmission of Policy Rates in Uruguay: A Cross-Country Perspective, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.

  • Commodity Prices, Growth and the Fiscal Position in Uruguay, by Rita Babihuga.

  • Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning in Uruguay, by Torsten Wezel.

  • Exchange Rate and Competitiveness Assessment, by Felipe Zanna.

  • How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay? by Sebastián Sosa.

United States

  • The Great Recession and Structural Unemployment, by Thomas Dowling, Marcello Estevão, and Evridiki Tsounta.

  • Prospects for the U.S. Household Saving Rate, by Martin Sommer.

  • Production and Jobs: Can We Have One without the Other? by Nicoletta Batini, Marcello Estevão, and Geoff Keim.

  • The Financing of U.S. Federal Budget Deficits, by Oya Celasun and Martin Sommer.

  • The U.S. Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.

  • The U.S. Fiscal Gap: Who Will Pay and How? by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.

  • Spillovers from U.S. Federal Debt Issuance: The Case of Emerging Market Sovereign Borrowing, by Oya Celasun.

  • Strategic Priorities for the Reform of U.S. Financial Regulation, by Ashok Bhatia, Andrea Maechler, and Paul Mills.

  • The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: A Stochastic Simulation Approach, by Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim.

  • U.S. Potential Growth in the Aftermath of the Crisis, by Natalia Barrera, Marcello Estevao, and Geoffrey Keim.

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  • Adler, Gustavo, and Camilo E. Tovar, 2011, “Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds?IMF Working Paper 11/165 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti, 1997, “Fiscal Adjustment in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 44, pp. 21048.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ball, Laurence, 2009, “Hysteresis in Unemployment,” in Understanding Inflation and the Implementation of Monetary Policy: A Phillips Curve Retrospective, ed. by J. Fuhrer, Y. Kodrzycki, J. Little, and G. Olivei (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ball, Laurence, Nicolas De Roux, and Marc Hoffstetter, 2011, “Unemployment in Latin America and the Caribbean,” NBER Working Paper No. 17274 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

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    • Export Citation
  • Ball, Laurence, and N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002, “The NAIRU in Theory and Practice,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 16, No. 4 (Fall), pp. 11536.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barsky, Robert B. and Lutz Kilian, 2004, “Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s.Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Fall), pp. 11534.

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