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New Publications from the Western Hemisphere Department, January 2010–August 2011
1. IMF Working Papers
WP/11/199 – Shocks, Financial Dependence, and Efficiency: Evidence from U.S. and Canadian Industries, by Marcello Estevão and Tiago Severo.
WP/11/197 – External Adjustment and the Global Crisis, by Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti.
WP/11/191 – Home Sweet Home: Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.
WP/11/165 – Foreign Exchange Intervention: A Shield against Appreciation Winds? by Gustavo Adler and Camilo E. Tovar.
WP/11/159 – Policy Instruments to Lean against the Wind in Latin America, by Gilbert Terrier, Rodrigo O. Valdés, Camilo E. Tovar Mora, Jorge A. Chan Lau, Carlos Fernandez Valdovinos, Mercedes Garcia-Escribano, Carlos I. Medeiros, Man-Keung Tang, Mercedes Vera Martin, and W. Christopher Walker.
WP/11/157 – The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries, by Alma Lucia Romero-Barrutieta, Ales Bulir, and Jose Daniel Rodriguez-Delgado.
WP/11/105 – Has the Great Recession Raised U.S. Structural Unemployment? by Marcello M. Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.
WP/11/92 – International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion—A Survey, by Gaston Gelos.
WP/11/84 – The Dynamics of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the United States in Light of the Financial Crisis of 2007–10, by Carlos I. Medeiros and Marco Rodriguez Waldo.
WP/11/72 – An Analysis of U.S. Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: Who Will Pay and How? by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.
WP/11/58 – Creditless Recoveries, by Abdul Abiad, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Bin (Grace) Li.
WP/11/44 – Sovereign Credit Ratings and Spreads in Emerging Markets: Does Investment Grade Matter?, by Michelle Tejada and Laura Jaramillo.
WP/11/32 – Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers? by Andrew M. Wolfe and Rafael Romeu.
WP/11/17 – Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.
WP/11/14 – Interpreting Currency Movements during the Crisis: What’s the Role of Interest Rate Differences? by Thomas Dowling and Nicoletta Batini.
WP/11/10 – What Is Driving Financial De-dollarization in Latin America? by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano and Sebastián Sosa.
WP/11/2 – The Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas E. Magud and Leandro Medina.
WP/10/292 – Weathering the Global Storm: The Benefits of Monetary Policy Reform in the LA5 Countries, by Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, Luis Ignacio Jácome, Ali Alichi, and Ivan Luis de Oliveira Lima.
WP/10/279 – A Note on Terms of Trade Shocks and the Wage Gag, by David O. Coble Fernandez and Nicolas E. Magud.
WP/10/271 – When and Why Worry about Real Exchange Rate Appreciation? The Missing Link between Dutch Disease and Growth, by Nicolas E. Magud and Sebastián Sosa.
WP/10/248 – Structural Breaks in Fiscal Performance: Did Fiscal Responsibility Laws Have Anything to Do with Them? by Carlos Caceres, Ana Corbacho, and Leandro Medina.
WP/10/241 – On the Distributive Effects of Terms of Trade Shocks: The Role of Non-tradable Goods, by Sebastian Galiani, Daniel Heymann, and Nicolas E. Magud.
WP/10/192 – The Dynamic Effects of Commodity Prices on Fiscal Performance in Latin America, by Leandro Medina.
WP/10/169 – Peru: Drivers of De-dollarization, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.
WP/10/168 – Does Procyclical Fiscal Policy Reinforce Incentives to Dollarize Sovereign Debt? by Anastasia Guscina, Anna Ilyina, and Herman Kamil.
WP/10/117 – Determinants of Investment Grade Status in Emerging Markets, by Laura Jaramillo.
WP/10/108 – The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
WP/10/107 – Balance Sheet Network Analysis of Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in Global and Domestic Banking Systems, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
WP/10/102 – The Global Credit Crunch and Foreign Banks’ Lending to Emerging Markets: Why Did Latin America Fare Better? by Herman Kamil and Kulwant Rai.
WP/10/98 – Regulatory Capital Charges for Too-Connected-to-Fail Institutions: A Practical Proposal, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
WP/10/86 – The Embodiment of Intangible Investment Goods: A Q-Theory Approach, by Nazim Belhocine.
WP/10/62 – The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves, by Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim.
WP/10/60 – The Influence of “Big Brothers”: How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay? by Sebastián Sosa.
WP/10/59 – Caribbean Bananas: The Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Preference Erosion, by Paul Cashin, Cleary Haines, and Montfort Mlachila.
WP/10/54 – Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia, by Fabian Valencia.
WP/10/43 – Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies, by Leandro Medina, Jordi Prat, and Alun Thomas.
WP/10/42 – Informal Labour and Credit Markets: A Survey, by Nicoletta Batini, Young-Bae Kim, Paul Levine, and Emanuela Lotti.
WP/10/35 – Spillovers to Central America in Light of the Crisis: What a Difference a Year Makes, by Andrew Swiston.
WP/10/23 – Financial Shocks and TFP Growth, by Marcello Estevão and Tiago Severo.
WP/10/13 – Canada’s Potential Growth: Another Victim of the Crisis? by Marcello Estevão and Evridiki Tsounta.
WP/10/5 – The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-financial Linkages Tell Us? by Rupa Duttagupta and Natalia Barrera.
WP/10/3 – Investment by Large Firms in Argentina, by Alvaro Piris.
WP/10/2 – Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau and Andre Santos.
WP/10/1 – Post-crisis Bank Behavior: Lessons from Mercosur, by Sarah Sanya and Montfort Mlachila.
2. Selected Issues Papers
Barbados
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Growth Dynamics, by Gamal El-Masry and Lulu Shui.
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External Stability, by John Ralyea.
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Barbados’ Financial System in the Aftermath of the Global Crisis, by Carla Macario.
Bolivia
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Hydrocarbon Revenue Sharing Arrangements, by Fabian Bornhorst.
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Precautionary Reserves: An Application to Bolivia, by Fabian Valencia.
Canada
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The Post-crisis Canadian Housing Market, by Evridiki Tsounta.
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Interpreting Canada’s Currency Movements during the Crisis, by Nicoletta Batini and Thomas Dowling.
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Canada’s Potential Growth: A Post-crisis Assessment, by Evridiki Tsounta.
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The Bumpy Road Ahead for North American Automakers, by Nicoletta Batini, Grace Bin Li, and John Dowling.
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Canada’s Housing Finance System: Policy Backdrop, by John Kiff.
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Canadian Banks and the Credit Turmoil, by Lev Ratnovski and Rocco Huang.
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Canadian Residential Mortgage Markets: Boring But Effective? by John Kiff.
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How Do Commodity Prices Affect Economic Slumps in Commodity Exporters? by Rupa Duttagupta.
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Is the Canadian Housing Market Overvalued? A Tale of Two Regions, by Evridiki Tsounta.
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The Impact of Global Shocks on Canada—What Do Macro-financial Linkages Tell Us? by Rupa Duttagupta and Natalia Barrera.
Caribbean
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Growth in the ECCU: What Went Wrong and Can It Be Fixed? by Nita Thacker, Sebastian Acevedo, Joong Shik Kang, Roberto Perrelli, and Melesse Tashu.
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Public Debt in ECCU Countries, by Arnold Mclntyre and Sumiko Ogawa.
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Rationalizing Public Expenditure in the ECCU, by Shamsuddin Tareq, Alejandro Simone, Koffie Nassar, and Arina Viseth.
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Insurance against Natural Disasters in the Caribbean, by Yu Ching Wong, Anthony Lemus, and Nancy Wagner.
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Risk Analysis of Public Debt in the Caribbean: A “Fan-Chart” Approach, by Koffie Nassar and Catherine Pattillo.
Chile
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Assessment of Real Exchange Rate and External Competitiveness, by Jiri Podpiera and Yi Wu.
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Capital Inflows, Exchange Rate Flexibility, and Domestic Credit, by Nicholas Magud.
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Do Dynamic Provisions Enhance Bank Solvency and Reduce Credit Procyclicality? A Study of the Chilean Banking System, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
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Strengthening Chile’s Rule-Based Fiscal Framework, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.
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Too-Connected-to-Fail Risk in the Chilean Banking System: A Balance Sheet Network Analysis, by Jorge A. Chan-Lau.
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A Note on Terms of Trade Shocks and the Wage Gap, by Nicolas Magud.
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Revisiting the Estimation of the Chilean Output Gap, by Nicolas Magud and Leandro Medina.
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A Longer-Term Approach to Fiscal Policy in Chile, by Borja Gracia, Gabriel Di Bella, and Martin Cerisola.
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Investment-Specific Productivity Growth: Chile in a Global Perspective, by Gabriel Di Bella and Martin Cerisola.
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The Global Financial Turmoil and Its Impact on Chilean Banks, by Jorge Chan-Lau.
Colombia
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An Assessment of Financial Sector Indicators for the Colombian Corporate Sector, by Mercedes Vera Martin.
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Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia, by Benedict J. Clements and Herman Kamil.
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Determinants of Investment Grade Status and Implications for Colombia’s Public Debt, by Laura Jaramillo.
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Does Financial Soundness Affect Credit Growth? by Iva Petrova and Enrique Flores.
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Monetary and Fiscal Policy Options for Dealing with External Shocks: Insights from the GIMF for Colombia, by Benedict J. Clements, Enrique Flores, and Daniel Leigh.
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The Colombian Banking Sector—A Contingent Claims Analysis, by Marcos Souto and Lisandro Abrego.
Guyana
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The Impact of the Global Crisis and Policy Response, by Magda Kandil.
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The Impact of the EU Sugar Trade Preferences and Their Erosion, by Felix Eschenbach.
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Assessing the Fiscal Structural Stance, by Carla Macario.
Mexico
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Potential Growth and the Output Gap in Mexico, by Enrique Flores and Francisco Vazquez-Ahued.
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Estimating Default Frequences and Macrofinancial Linkages in the Mexican Banking System, by Rodolphe Blavy and Marcos Souto.
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Exchange Rate Exposure of the Mexican Corporate Sector: Progress and Remaining Vulnerabilities, by Herman Kamil and W. Christopher Walker.
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Expanding the Regulatory Perimeter: The Case of Sofoles and Sofomes, by Jose Giancarlo Gasha.
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Labor Market Informality and Macroeconomic Performance, by Kristin Magnusson Bernard.
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Reforming the Fiscal Framework: Budget Rules and Fiscal Risks, by Geremia Palomba.
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The Global Crisis and Potential Growth in Mexico, by Kornelia Krajnyak.
Panama
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Benefits from Attaining Investment Grade Status and Implications for Panama, by Mario Dehesa.
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Macro-financial Linkages in Panama, by Juliana Araujo and Kristin Magnusson.
Paraguay
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Potential Output Growth in Spillovers from Agriculture, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.
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Bank Excess Reserves in Paraguay—Determinants and Implications, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.
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Assessing the Appropriateness of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in an Adverse External Environment, by Montfort Mlachila and Brieuc Monfort.
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Financial Sector Issues: Advances in the Implementation of the Financial Sector Assessment Program Recommendations, by Sylwia Nowak.
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Paraguay’s Tax System in a Regional Perspective, by Ernesto Crivelli.
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Post-crisis Behavior of Banks in Mercosur, by Sarah O. Sanya and Montfort Mlachila.
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Sustainable Management of Revenues from Itaipu, by Teresa Dabán-Sánchez and Walter Zarate.
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The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Paraguay, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea and Teresa Dabán-Sánchez.
Peru
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Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities in a Dollarized Economy, by Maria Gonzalez.
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Credit Growth: Anatomy and Policy Responses, by Luis Breuer, Jose Gasha, Giancarlo Peschiera, and Juan Alonso Perez-Salmon.
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Disentangling the Motives for Foreign Exchange Intervention in Peru, by Maria Gonzalez.
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Drivers of De-dollarization, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.
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Macroeconomic Stability and the Role of Fiscal Policy, by Daniel Leigh.
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Performance of Alternative Fiscal Rules: An Application to Peru, by Isabel Rial.
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Potential Growth and Output Gap in Peru, by Leandro Medina.
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Progress in Strengthening Peru’s Prudential Framework, by Patrick Amir Imam and Jose Giancarlo Gasha.
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Regional Disparities and Public Transfers, by Mercedes Garcia-Escribano.
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What to Expect When You Are Expecting…Large Capital Inflows? Lessons from Cross-Country Experiences, by Mercedes Vera Martin.
Uruguay
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Assessing the Structural Fiscal Stance, by Manuel Rosales Torres.
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Transmission of Policy Rates in Uruguay: A Cross-Country Perspective, by Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea.
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Commodity Prices, Growth and the Fiscal Position in Uruguay, by Rita Babihuga.
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Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning in Uruguay, by Torsten Wezel.
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Exchange Rate and Competitiveness Assessment, by Felipe Zanna.
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How Important Are Regional Factors for Uruguay? by Sebastián Sosa.
United States
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The Great Recession and Structural Unemployment, by Thomas Dowling, Marcello Estevão, and Evridiki Tsounta.
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Prospects for the U.S. Household Saving Rate, by Martin Sommer.
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Production and Jobs: Can We Have One without the Other? by Nicoletta Batini, Marcello Estevão, and Geoff Keim.
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The Financing of U.S. Federal Budget Deficits, by Oya Celasun and Martin Sommer.
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The U.S. Government’s Role in Reaching the American Dream, by Evridiki Tsounta.
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The U.S. Fiscal Gap: Who Will Pay and How? by Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Callegari, and Julia Guerreiro.
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Spillovers from U.S. Federal Debt Issuance: The Case of Emerging Market Sovereign Borrowing, by Oya Celasun.
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Strategic Priorities for the Reform of U.S. Financial Regulation, by Ashok Bhatia, Andrea Maechler, and Paul Mills.
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The U.S. Federal Debt Outlook: A Stochastic Simulation Approach, by Oya Celasun and Geoffrey Keim.
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U.S. Potential Growth in the Aftermath of the Crisis, by Natalia Barrera, Marcello Estevao, and Geoffrey Keim.