Basel II mandates the maintenance of bank capital to address three broad categories of risk: credit risk, market risk and operation risk. Basel II methodology assumes that credit risk can be reliably specified with respect to particular asset categories. These projections are based on historical experience, reflected in data sets, which are at times general and at times specific to a particular institution. Basel II may have failed, however, to identify the strong shift in the correlation of defaults that accompanied the financial crisis. Market risk assessment displays similar issues of under-anticipated correlation under extreme conditions. Of the three categories, operational risk is the least tractable. It is a catch-all category, reflecting both internal failures and external events. The character of risk shifts markedly between “ordinary times” and extreme events. Consider this matrix:
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