© 2008 International Monetary Fund
The views expressed in this publication are the personal views of its authors and should not be interpreted as the views of the International Monetary Fund or of any other organization with which the respective authors are affiliated.
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Poverty and social impact analysis by the IMF: review of methodology and selected
evidence / Robert Gillingham, editor— [ Washington, D.C.]: International Monetary Fund, 2008.
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p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 9781589066625
1. Economic assistance — Social aspects. 2. Poverty — Social aspects. 3. Developing countries — Social conditions. 4. Developing countries — Economic conditions. 5. Developing countries — Economic policy. 6. International Monetary Fund. I. Gillingham, Robert. II. International Monetary Fund. HC60.P684 2008
Price: $I9.00
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Contents
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I. Introduction
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II. A Review of Macro-Micro Approaches for Evaluating the Distributional Impacts of Macroeconomic Reforms
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A. Introduction
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B. Macro-Micro Analytical Approaches
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C. Computable General Equilibrium Models
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D. The 123PRSP Model
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E. The Integrated Macroeconomic Model for Poverty Analysis
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F. Microsimulation and CGE Models
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G. Relative Resource Needs
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H. Conclusions
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Appendix 2.1. Closure Rules Commonly Used in the CGE Modeling Framework
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III. The Distributional Impacts of Indirect Tax and Public Pricing Reforms: A Review of Methods and Empirical Evidence
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A. Introduction
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B. Alternative Methodological Approaches
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C. Lessons from the Empirical Literature
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D. Conclusions
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Appendix 3.1. Theoretical Approach to Evaluating the Welfare Impact of Price Reform
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Appendix 3.2. Alternative Price-Shifting Models
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Appendix 3.3. General Lessons from Tax Theory
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IV. Analyzing the Impact of Trade Liberalization and Devaluation on Poverty
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A. Introduction and Summary
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B. Selected Methodological Issues
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C. Main Results of the Literature: Trade Liberalization
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D. Main Results of the Literature: Devaluation
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E. Toward a Systematic Approach to Assessing Distributional Impacts
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V. The Distributional Impact of Agricultural Sector Reforms in Africa: A Review of Past Experience
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A. Introduction
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B. Rationale for Intervention and Reform
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C. Stakeholders and Channels of Impact
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D. Case Studies
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E. The Impact of the Reforms
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Bibliography
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Tables
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1.1 Summary of Activities and Outputs of the Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Group
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2.1 Structure of a SAM
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2.2 Flow of Factors and Household Incomes in a SAM Figures
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Figures
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2.1 Circular Flow of Income as Portrayed in a Social Accounting Matrix
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2.2 Functional Distribution and Size Distribution of Income (CGE Model)
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2.3 The 123PRSP Macro-Poverty Links
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2.4 Layered and Integrated CGE-Microsimulation
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5.1 Agricultural Sector Losses in Selected Countries
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Appendix Tables
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A2.1 Alternative Closure Rules for Macro System Constraints
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A3.1 Alternative Approaches for Evaluating the Welfare Impacts of Tax and Price Reforms
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A4.1 Approaches to Analyzing the Welfare Impacts of Trade Liberalization and Devaluation
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A4.2 Useful Questions to Establish Key Qualitative Channels
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A5.1 Marketing Boards and Interventions
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A5.2 Agricultural Market Reforms
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Appendix Figures
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A5.1 Pre- and Postreform Trends in GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficits, and Agricultural Production