Financial Stability in Dollarized Economies
Anne-Marie Gulde, David Hoelscher,
Alain Ize, David Marston, and Gianni De Nicolo
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
Washington DC
2004
© 2004 International Monetary Fund
Production: IMF Multimedia Services Division
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Financial stability in dollarized economies / Anne-Marie Gulde … [et al.] — Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2004.
p. cm. — (Occasional paper; 230)
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 1-58906-296-5
1. Dollar, American. 2. Banks and banking. 3. Monetary policy. I. Gulde, Anne-Marie. II. Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 230
HG230.3.F35 2004
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Contents
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Preface
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I Introduction
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II Implications of Dollarization for Financial Stability
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Are Dollarized Financial Systems Inherently Vulnerable?
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What Are the Specific Financial Risks of Partial Dollarization?
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III Managing Bank Runs in Dollarized Countries
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Provision of Emergency Liquidity
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Depositor Protection
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Administrative Measures
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IV Prudential Framework for Managing Dollarization Risks
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How Are Dollarized Countries Managing Dollarization Risks?
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Is a Regulatory Tightening Needed?
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Agenda for Prudential Reform
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Enhancing the Attractiveness of Local Currency
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Implementation Issues
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V Conclusions
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References
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Boxes
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1. Dollarization Types and Trends
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2. Dollarization Levels Versus Dollarization Risks
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3. Systemic Risk Potential and Dollarization
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4. Costs and Benefits of Norms to Control Liquidity Risk: The Case of Peru
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5. Practical Safeguards and Countermeasures for Offshore Financial Centers
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Tables
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1. Average Foreign Currency Deposits to Total Deposits
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2. Indicators of Domestic Financial Intermediation in Foreign Currency, 2001
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3. Deposit Volatility and Dollarization
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4. Impact of Dollarization on Financial Soundness Indicators
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5. Bank Runs in Partially Dollarized Economies
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6. Risk Management Arrangements in Dollarized Economies
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7. Creditor Runs in the Peruvian Banking System
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Figures
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1. Foreign Currency Deposits
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2. Foreign and Local Currency Deposits
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3. Interest Rates on Foreign Currency Deposits
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4. Deposit and Loan Dollarization
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5. Real and Financial Dollarization
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6. Dollarization and Volatility of the Bilateral Real Exchange Rate to the U.S. Dollar, 1990–2001
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7. Average Dollarization and Official Reserves to M2, 1996–2001
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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
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… to indicate that data are not available;
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— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
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– between years or months (e.g., 1998–99 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
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/ between years (e.g., 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
Preface
This Occasional Paper addresses the challenges to prudential supervision in highly dollarized economies where central banks and supervisors may be constrained in the use of standard monetary and financial policy tools. Based on a 2003 IMF Executive Board Paper, Financial Stability in Dollarized Economies is part of the policy development work conducted by the IMF’s Monetary and Financial Systems Department. Its conclusions are the basis of an ongoing policy dialogue with member countries, standard-setters in the financial area, and academia.
The paper is the result of a group effort. It was prepared by Anne-Marie Gulde, David Hoelscher, Alain Ize, David Marston, and Gianni De Nicoló, with important contributions from Socorro Heysen, R. Armando Morales, and Marina Moretti. The authors thank all contributors, internal reviewers, and the various country authorities who responded to a survey on prudential practices. They are also grateful to Kalin Tintchev for providing excellent research assistance, Tsegereda Mulatu for expertly coordinating the preparation of the manuscript, and Archana Kumar of IMF’s External Relations Department for editing the paper and coordinating its publication.
The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the national authorities, the IMF, or IMF Executive Directors.