© 2003 International Monetary Fund
Production: IMF Multimedia Services Division
Typesetting: Choon Lee
Figures: Theodore F. Peters, Jr.
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Zamaróczy, Mario de.
Economic policy in a highly dollarized economy : the case of Cambodia/Mario de Zamaróczy and Sopanha Sa—Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund
p. cm. — (Occasional paper ; 219)
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Includes bibliographical references.
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ISBN 1-58906-189-6
1. Cambodia—Economic policy. 2. Dollar, American. I. Sa, Sopanha. II. International Monetary Fund. III. Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund); no. 219
HC442.Z35 2003
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Contents
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Acknowledgments
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I Overview
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II Economic and Financial Developments
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III Dollarization in Cambodia
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A Synopsis of the Concepts of Dollarization and of Currency Substitution
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Measuring Dollarization in Cambodia
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IV Costs and Benefits of High Dollarization in Cambodia
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Drawbacks of High Dollarization
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Benefits of High Dollarization
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V Implications of High Dollarization for Macroeconomic Policy Design
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Dollarization and the Banking System
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Execution of Budget
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Consideration of a Possible Currency Board Arrangement
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VI Conclusion
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Appendix
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Cambodia—A Simple Model to Estimate Dollars in Circulation Outside Banks
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Bibliography
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Boxes
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1. Key Dates in Cambodian Political and Financial History
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2. Empirical Models of Dollarization
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3. Theoretical Models of Dollarization
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4. Causality Analysis Between Inflation and Dollarization in Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam
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5. Measuring Seigniorage
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6. Banking Reform in Cambodia
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7. Currency Board Arrangement Versus National Bank of Cambodia Policies
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Tables
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1. Ratio of Dollars Circulating in the Economy
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2. Estimates of Seigniorage
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3. Interest Rates on Deposits and Loans, February 2002
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4. Budget Execution in Foreign Currency
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5. Velocity of Broad Money I
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6. Maximum Likelihood Estimates for the State-Space Representation
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7. Velocity of Broad Money II
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8. Value of the Proportionality Coefficient
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Figures
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1. Foreign Currency Deposits
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2. Real GDP and Inflation
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3. Assets and Liabilities of the Banking System in Foreign Currency
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4. Dollarization Ratios
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5. Ratio of Foreign Currency Deposits to Broad Money
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6. Foreign Currency Deposits in Cambodia, Lao P.D.R., and Vietnam
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7. Dollars in Circulation Outside
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8. Estimated Currency Substitution
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9. Ratio of Dollars in Circulation to Foreign Currency Deposits
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10. Estimated Dollarization
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11. Official International Reserves
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12. Spread Between Official and Market Exchange Rates
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13. Riels per U.S. Dollar
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14. Riels per Thai Bhat and 100 Vietnamese Dong
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15. Effective Exchange Rates
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16. Co-Currency Circulation
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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper:
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…to indicate that data are not available;
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—to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
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–between years or months (e.g., 1994–95 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
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/ between years (e.g., 1994/95) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year.
“Billion” means a thousand million.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
The term “country,” as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis.
Acknowledgments
We are indebted for useful comments and suggestions to Thomas Rumbaugh, Philippe Callier, Edward Frydl, Balázs Horváth, Vitale Kramarenko, Tola May, Johannes Mueller, Gabriel Sensenbrenner, and other IMF colleagues. We are grateful to Chanthana Neav from the National Bank of Cambodia for providing data and insightful comments, to Marc Paoletti (IMF resident advisor in Cambodia) for budgetary data, and to Paolo Guarda (Central Bank of Luxembourg) for comments. Chenda Pich and Myrna Bas offered superb secretarial assistance. Jeff Hayden of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated its production. We bear responsibility for any remaining errors. The views expressed in this Occasional Paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy.