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Mr. Donald J Mathieson
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Mr. Garry J. Schinasi
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Abstract

This paper reports the on-off nature of emerging market access to international capital markets appears to have become a key characteristic of international financial markets. Emerging market borrowers have begun to adapt: when the market for US dollar-denominated bonds has closed, these borrowers turn to the syndicated loan markets, attempt to issue in bonds denominated in euro or yen, or issue in local-currency bond markets. In addition, they employ staff with extensive experience in investment banking and securities trading, exploit “windows of opportunity” to prefund their yearly financing requirement, and engage in debt exchanges to extend the maturity of their debt and avoid a bunching of maturities. The consolidation of financial institutions is driven by attempts to exploit economies of scale and scope, and technological advances such as the Internet and deregulation that facilitate universal banking activities are making it easier to reap such economies. Advances in technology are also transforming the securities trading industry.

© 2001 International Monetary Fund

Production: IMF Graphics Section

Cover & Design: Luisa Menjivar-Macdonald

Figures: Theodore F. Peters, Jr.

Typesetting: Choon Lee

ISBN 9781589060562

ISSN 0258-7440

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Contents

  • Preface

  • Acronyms and Abbreviations

  • Chapter I. Introduction

  • Chapter II. Developments and Trends in Mature Capital Markets

    • Global Capital Flows and Developments in Foreign Exchange Markets

    • Equity Markets

    • National and International Credit Markets

    • Derivatives Markets

    • Developments in Major Banking Systems

    • International Regulatory and Supervisory Developments

  • Chapter III. Emerging Market Financing

    • Developments in Aggregate Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

    • Developments in the Bond, Equity, and Syndicated Loan Markets

  • Chapter IV. The Changing Structure of the Major Government Securities Markets: Implications for Private Financial Markets and Key Policy Issues

    • Introduction

    • Key Characteristics and Roles of Government Securities and Their Markets

    • The Shrinking Supply of U.S. Treasuries: Financial Market Effects and Policy Issues

    • Euro-Area Government Securities Markets: Challenges in Eliminating Fragmented Markets

    • Japan: Market Infrastructure and Expanding Government Debt Supply

  • Chapter V. Financial Sector Consolidation in Emerging Markets

    • Patterns and Causes of Financial Sector Consolidation

    • Economies of Scale and Scope, and Electronic Banking

    • Consolidation and Market Power

    • Policy Issues and Systemic Risks

  • Chapter VI. Staff Appraisal

    • Mature Markets

    • Emerging Markets

    • Financial Market Implications of the Changing Structure of Major Government Securities Markets

    • Financial Consolidation in Emerging Markets

  • Annex I. Ongoing Weaknesses in Japan’s Corporate and Financial Sectors

    • Japan’s Financial Sector: Limited Progress in Addressing Structural Weaknesses

    • Corporate Restructuring: Big Problems, Little Progress

  • Annex II. Development of Local Bond Markets in Asia and Latin America

  • Annex III. Issuance and Closures in Emerging Market Bonds. Equities, and Loans

  • Annex IV. The Major Fixed-Income Securities Markets

    • Overview of the Major Debt Securities Markets

    • Overview of the Major Government Securities Markets

    • Recent Issuance Trends in Fixed-Income Markets

    • Outlook for Major Government Bond Supplies

  • Annex V. Concluding Remarks by the Chairman

    • Developments and Risks

    • Financial Market Implications of the Changing Structure of Major Government Securities Markets

    • Financial Sector Consolidation in Emerging Markets

  • Boxes

    • 2.1. Price-Earnings Ratios and Implied Real Earnings Growth in Major Stock Markets

    • 2.2. The Group of Ten Report on Financial Consolidation

    • 2.3. Key Elements of the Proposed New Basel Accord for Bank Capital Adequacy

    • 3.1. Emerging Market Sovereigns Return to the Euroyen Market

    • 3.2. The European Investor Base for Emerging Market Debt

    • 3.3. What Determines Emerging Market Bond Spreads?

    • 3.4. Emerging Market vs. U.S. High-Yield Bonds

    • 3.5. Investor Base for Emerging Market U.S. Dollar Bonds

    • 3.6. Chinese Jumbo Initial Public Offerings

    • 3.7. Benchmark Indices and the Asset Allocation of Emerging Market Funds

    • 4.1. Managing Interest-Rate Risk Using Government Securities: An Example

    • 4.2. U.S. Treasury Derivatives Contracts and Markets

    • 4.3. The U.S. Treasury Repo Market

    • 4.4. U.S. Treasury Securities as Collateral

    • 4.5. Squeezes in German Government Securities Markets

    • 5.1. Bank Mega-Mergers and Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

    • 5.2. On-line Securities Trading in Emerging Markets

    • 5.3. The Market Response to Cross-Border Bank Mergers and Acquisitions

    • 5.4. E-Banking in Emerging Markets

    • 5.5. Antitrust Policy in Banking in Selected Mature Markets

    • A1.1. Japan: Methods to Estimate Future Bank Loan Losses

    • A1.2. Stock Market Reaction to Restructuring Announcements Before and After the Implementation of the Civil Rehabilitation Law

  • Tables

    • 2.1. Net Foreign Purchases of U.S. Long-Term Securities

    • 2.2. Equity Price Changes

    • 2.3. Outstanding Amounts and Net Issues of International Debt Securities by Currency of Issue

    • 2.4. Announced International Syndicated Credit Facilities by Nationality of Borrowers

    • 2.5. Exchange-Traded Derivatives: Notional Principal Amounts Outstanding and Annual Turnover

    • 2.6. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts

    • 2.7. Global Over-the-Counter Derivatives Markets: Notional Amounts and Gross Market Values of Outstanding Contracts by Counterparty, Remaining Maturity, and Currency Composition

    • 2.8. Mature-Market Bank Exposures to Emerging Markets, End-December 2000

    • 2.9. Key International Supervisory and Regulatory Initiatives

    • 3.1. Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

    • 3.2. Changes in Net Assets of BIS-Reporting Banks in selected Countries and Regions

    • 3.3. Gross Private Market Financing to Emerging Markets, by Region, Financing Type, and Borrower Type

    • 3.4. Decline of Brady Debt

    • 3.5. Returns on Different Asset Classes

    • 3.6. Correlation between TMT and non-TMT Returns across Regions

    • 3.7. Contribution of TMT to Regional Stock Market Declines in the Fourth Quarter of 2000

    • 4.1. Euro Area: Ownership of Government Debt

    • 4.2. Sovereign Credit Ratings for Selected Countries

    • 4.3. Public Debt Issuance Procedures in Selected Euro-Area Countries

    • 5.1. Bank Stocks in Selected Emerging Markets

    • 5.2. Number of Banks and Market Concentration in Selected Emerging Market Banking Systems

    • 5.3. Performance Indicators According to Bank Size

    • 5.4. Permissible Activities for Banking Organizations in Various Emerging Markets

    • 5.5. H Statistics for Selected Emerging Market Banking Systems

    • A1.1. Japan: Problem Loans

    • A1.2. Japan: Classification of Bank Loans

    • A1.3. Japan: Sensitivity Analysis for Uncovered Loan Losses of Major and Regional Banks

    • A1.4. Japan: Major Banks’ Regulatory Capital

    • A1.5. Japan: Bank Support Framework

    • A1.6. Japan: Official Initiatives Targeted to Corporate Restructuring

    • A1.7. Corporate Governance Score Card

    • A3.1. Issuance Volume Regressions for Bonds, Equity, and Loans

    • A3.2. Closures Based on 539 Weekly Observations from 1990–April 19, 2001

    • A3.3. Granger Causality: Bond, Equity, and Loan Markets

    • A3.4. Granger Causality: Different Issuers of Emerging Market Bonds

    • A4.1. Global Bond Markets, December 2000

    • A4.2. Selected Countries: Key Features of Government Bond Markets

    • A4.3. Selected Major Economies: Private Debt Securities Issues

    • A4.4. Selected Major Economies: Public Sector Debt Outstanding

  • Figures

    • 2.1. United States: Current Account Deficit as Share of Global Surpluses

    • 2.2. Global Capital Flows

    • 2.3. Gross Global Capital Flows Relative to Net Global Capital Flows

    • 2.4. Selected Major Industrial Countries: Exchange Rates

    • 2.5. Equity Indices: Technology Sector vs. Nontechnology Sector

    • 2.6. S&P 500 Earnings Outlook

    • 2.7. Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates

    • 2.8. Monetary Policy Rates and Short-Term Rate Expectations

    • 2.9. United States: Corporate Bond Market

    • 2.10. Selected Spreads

    • 2.11. Nonfinancial Corporate Credit Spreads

    • 2.12. United States: Banks’ Total Gross and On-Balance-Sheet Leverage Ratios

    • 3.1. Net Private Capital Flows and Gross Private Issuance to Emerging Markets

    • 3.2. Emerging Market Domestic Debt and External Debt

    • 3.3. Average Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets

    • 3.4. Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecast

    • 3.5. Currency Composition of Emerging Market Bond Issues

    • 3.6. Yield Spreads for Selected Emerging Market Eurobonds

    • 3.7. Emerging Market Bond Issuance, Nasdaq, and EMBI Global Spread

    • 3.8. Emerging Market Spreads: Argentina, Brazil, and EMBI global

    • 3.9. Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Bond Yield Spreads

    • 3.10. Bond Market Developments

    • 3.11. Bond Issues and Loans by Asian and Latin America Corporates

    • 3.12. Emerging Markets: Syndicated Loans’ Weighted Interest Margins and Maturities

    • 3.13. Emerging Market Equity Issuance and Nasdaq Returns

    • 3.14. Equity Indices for Selected Emerging Market Regions, United States, and Japan

    • 3.15. Price-Earnings Ratios for Information Technology (IT) vs. Non-IT Sector

    • 4.1. Bond Yield Spreads Against Germany for Selected Euro-Area Countries

    • 4.2. Volatility of Government Bond Yields for Selected Countries

    • 4.3. Euro-Area Members’ Domestic Public Debt

    • 4.4. Japan and United States: Euromarket Spreads over Government Bonds

    • 4.5. Japan and Germany: Yield Spread on Government Bonds with Similar Maturities

    • 5.1. Monthly Dollar Trading Volume for Selected Asian Countries

    • 5.2. Monthly Dollar Trading Volume for Selected Latin American Countries

    • 5.3. Monthly Dollar Trading Volume for Selected European Countries

    • 5.4. Cumulative Market Share of the Largest Private Pension Funds

    • 5.5. Evolution of Nominal Banking Spreads

    • 5.6. Consolidation Intensity and Bank Interdependency in selected Emerging Market Banking Systems

    • A1.1. Japan: Major Banks’ Profits, FY1990–2000

    • A1.2. Japan: Banking Indicators

    • A2.1. Size of Local Currency Bond Markets for Selected Asian Countries

    • A3.1. New Millenium, New Seasonality?

    • A4.1. United States: Corporate Sector Financing

    • A4.2. Euro-Area Government Debt Outstanding

    • A4.3. Government Debt Outstanding in Selected Euro-Area Countries

    • A4.4. Government Debt Outstanding in Selected Countries

    • A4.5. Projected U.S. Treasury Debt

    • A4.6. Ownership of U.S. Treasury Securities

The following symbols have been used throughout this volume:

  • … to indicate that data are not available;

  • — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;

  • – between years or months (for example, 1997–99 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;

  • / between years (for example, 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.

“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

“n.a.” means not applicable.

Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

As used in this volume the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

PREFACE

The International Capital Markets report is an integral part of the IMF’s surveillance of developments in international financial markets. The IMF has published the International Capital Markets report annually since 1980. The report draws, in part, on a series of informal discussions with commercial and investment banks, securities firms, insurance companies, pension funds, stock and futures exchanges, regulatory and monetary authorities, finance ministries, credit rating agencies, and the staff of the Bank for International Settlements. The discussions leading up to the present report took place in Argentina, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States during the period November 2000–April 2001. The report reflects information available up to the end of May 2001.

The International Capital Markets report was prepared in the Research Department, under the general direction of the Economic Counsellor, Michael Mussa. The International Capital Markets project is co-directed by Donald J. Mathieson, Chief of the Emerging Markets Studies Division, and Garry J. Schinasi, Chief of the Capital Markets and Financial Studies Division. Contributors to the report from the Research Department are Torbjorn Becker, Peter Breuer, Jorge Chan-Lau, R. Sean Craig, Piti Disyatat, Burkhard Drees, Gaston Gelos, Iryna Ivaschenko, Ronald Johannes, Charles Kramer, Ramana Ramaswamy, Jorge Roldos, R. Todd Smith, Amadou Sy, and Caroline Van Rijckeghem. Silvia Iorgova, Anne Jansen, Oksana Khadarina, Yoon Sook Kim, and Peter Tran provided research assistance. Kenneth Kletzer of the IMF’s Research Department also contributed. Contributors from other departments are Kenneth Kang and Martin Muhleisen, Asia and Pacific Department; Roger Nord, European I Department; and Vivek Arora, Western Hemisphere Department. Caroline Bagworth, Ramanjeet Singh, Adriana Vohden, and Joan Wise provided expert word processing assistance. Jacqueline Irving of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.

The study has benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussions of the International Capital Markets report on June 28, 2001. However, the analysis and policy considerations are those of the contributing staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors, their national authorities, or the IMF.

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADR

American depository receipt

BCBS

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision

BIS

Bank for International Settlements

CBO

Collateralized bond obligation

CP

Commercial paper

CTD

Cheapest to deliver

DVP

Delivery versus payment

ECB

European Central Bank

ECU

European Currency Unit

EMBI

Emerging Markets Bond Index

EMTA

Emerging Markets Traders Association

EMU

European Economic and Monetary Union

EU

European Union

EURIBOR

Euro Interbank Offered Rate

FDI

Foreign direct investment

FRA

Forward-rate agreement

GDR

Global depository receipt

GEM

Global Equity Market

G-7

Group of Seven

G-10

Group of Ten

HLI

Highly leveraged institution

IFC

International Finance Corporation

IOSCO

International Organization of Securities Commissions

IPO

Initial public offering

IRB

Internal ratings based

ISDA

International Swaps and Derivatives Association

JGB

Japanese government bond

LCBO

Large, complex banking organization

LIBOR

London Interbank Offered Rate

LTCM

Long-Term Capital Management

MBS

Mortgage-backed securities

MSCI

Morgan Stanley Capital International (index)

MSCI EMF

Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Free (index)

NASDAQ

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations

NPL

Nonperforming loan

NRF

Name registration form

OECD

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OTC

Over-the-counter

QFI

Qualified foreign intermediary

ROA

Return on assets

ROE

Return on equity

RTGS

Real-time gross settlement

SAR

Special Administrative Region

TARGET

Trans-European Automated Real-Time Gross Settlement Express Transfer

TMT

Technology, media, and telecommunications

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